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Tuesday, September 10, 2013

25 Point Programme Out Of Recession / Constitutional Amendments 18

   This is the 24 point programme I devised some time ago for getting out of recession, which no politician or economist has actually disagreed with, or endorsed:

http://a-place-to-stand.blogspot.co.uk/2011/11/we-could-get-out-of-recession-in-days.html

I'd like to add this 25th point:

25 - Make it illegal for government to give any money to any charity that, in the last 5 years, has advertised for more government. That isn't a charity's job and the conflict of interest is clear. Similarly make a legal requirement that any funding from outside the country of any "charity" that has pushed a political opinion be registered and subject to a 50% windfall tax - half of this money to be earmarked for organisations committed to reducing the size of government. In the same way, over the next 5 years, be 10% as much money as our state donated to pro-government charities should be donated to organisations promoting smaller government.

The same ban should apply to any government department, quango or council and they should be limited to spending not more than 1/2% of their budget on PR/press liaison /raising awareness or such activity under other names.

According to Chris Snowdens admirable report  on sock puppets"Between 1997 and 2005, the combined income of Britain’s charities nearly doubled, from £19.8 billion to £37.9 billion, with the biggest growth coming in grants and contracts from government departments (Smith and Whittington, 2006, p. 1). According to the Centre for Policy Studies, state funding rose by 38 per cent in the first years of the twenty-first century while private donations rose by just seven per cent".

This suggests donations to fakecharities was at least half of the increase ie £9.05 bn (£37.9-£19.8bn) and that this amounts to 38% of total funding of 138% which would thus be £32,9bn. Assuming only the same is being spent directly by government this comes to over £60 bn spent by government on advertising how much more of it we need. Since that comes to over half the budget deficit it is clearly something we could well manage without.

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I am also including this under CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 18 since, by reducing the power of government to frighten us with their "endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary (Mencken) would significantly improve quality of life and reduce the parasitic power of the state.

  

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Thursday, April 16, 2009

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 3

I have been listing the constitutional amendments Milton Freedman advocated. This is his one on Occupational Licensure
No state shall make or impose any law which shall abridge the right of any citizen of the United States to follow any occupation or profession of his choice

I must admit the idea of just anybody being able to set up as a doctor is disconcerting. On the other hand he does use them as an example. The AMA (& BMA here) certainly severely restrict the number of people who can train as doctor setting the numbers trained on criteria other than need for doctors or even the educational ability of this year's intake. This is clear method of pushing up their earnings. It does have the result of increasing the number of chiropractors & other unofficial doctors.

He assumes & I generally do to, that existing or new professional bodies would still be able to licence & that the public would pay great attention to such licencing, at least until such a body screwed up. I have previously written about how childcare costs are grossly inflated by government regulation & our government say it intends to fight child poverty by ensuring everybody licenced to look after kids has an A level on the subject. That will clearly not reduce costs.

Being a bit wishy washy in my libertarianism I am not sure about getting rid of all such regulation (or at least would like to see somebody else trying it first) but would like a ban on any new laws combined with a duty by the government to provide a cost benefit analysis of existing laws & remove them if they fall short.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 1 BALANCED BUDGET

Many years ago I read a copy (my father's - he was a prominent member of the Liberal Party back when liberals were still allowed in) of Milton Friedman's book Free to Choose & though not a Thatcherite I did recognise that he was making many valid points about the inherent inefficiencies that entrenched government bureaucracies lead to. I still think anybody interested in traditional liberal values should read it.

His solution to overgovernment was a set of constitutional amendments limiting the power of government. The best known of them was the balanced budget amendment. I must admit to being astonished that I could find only 1 link on the net which gives it. It certainly still deserves far wider consideration. You can skip everything about the highlighted bit - the rest is just to stop the lawyers weaseling around it.
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A PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT TO LIMIT FEDERAL SPENDING 3±Prepared by the Federal Amendment Drafting CommitteeW. C. Stubblebine, ChairmanConvened by The National Tax Limitation CommitteeWm. F. Rickenbacker, Chairman; Lewis K. Uhler, President

Section 1. To protect the people against excessive governmental burdens and to promote sound fiscal and monetary policies, total outlays of the Government of the United States shall be limited.

(a) Total outlays in any fiscal year shall not increase by a percentage greater than the percentage increase in nominal gross national product in the last calendar year ending prior to the beginning of said fiscal year. Total outlays shall include budget and off-budget outlays, and exclude redemptions of the public debt and emergency outlays.

(b) If inflation for the last calendar year ending prior to the beginning of any fiscal year is more than three per cent, the permissible percentage increase in total outlays for that fiscal year shall be reduced by one-fourth of the excess of inflation over three per cent. Inflation shall be measured by the difference between the percentage increase in nominal gross national product and the percentage increase in real gross national product.

Section 2. When, for any fiscal year, total revenues received by the Government of the United States exceed total outlays, the surplus shall be used to reduce the public debt of the United States until such debt is eliminated.

Section 3. Following declaration of an emergency by the President, Congress may author-ize, by a two-thirds vote of both Houses, a specified amount of emergency outlays in excess of the limit for the current fiscal year.

Section 4. The limit on total outlays may be changed by a specified amount by a three-fourths vote of both Houses of Congress when approved by the Legislatures of a majority of the several States. The change shall become effective for the fiscal year following approval.

Section 5. For each of the first six fiscal years after ratification of this article, total grants to States and local governments shall not be a smaller fraction of total outlays than in the three fiscal years prior to the ratification of this article. Thereafter, if grants are less than that fraction of total outlays, the limit on total outlays shall be decreased by an equivalent amount.

Section 6. The Government of the United States shall not require, directly or indirectly,that States or local governments engage in additional or expanded activities without compensation equal to the necessary additional costs.

Section 7. This article may be enforced by one or more members of the Congress in an action brought in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, and by no other persons. The action shall name as defendant the Treasurer of the United States, who shall have authority over outlays by any unit or agency of the Government of the United States when required by a court order enforcing the provisions of this article. The order of the court shall not specify the particular outlays to be made or reduced. Changes in outlays necessary to comply with the order of the court shall be made no later than the end of the third full fiscal year following the court order.


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That both prevents monetary inflation & also prevents the expansion of government. In a growing economy that thereby means government would become a declining proportion of total GNP.

It would not prevent President & Congress overturning it by Bush/Obama declaring that there is an emergency requiring a government bailout of banks or whatever if the majority in favour was sufficient, in the end no constitution can be foolproof, but even then the need to declare a state of emergency would slow it down & give heads a chance to cool.

Britain has no written constitution except as provided by the EU. Instead we rely on centuries of precedent. I think that is a very serious weakness & we should provide ourselves with a Basic Law or Constitution. The most important part of such a document is not about the power of government but about what it is not allowed to do. Again this doesn't always prevent government doing it. The US one prevents making war without Congressional approval & subsequent law prevents him undertaking "police actions" for longer than 3 months but got broken to let Clinton bomb Yugoslavia. Nonetheless written laws do provide brakes on government authoritarianism & lines in the sand that let the people be sure when their rights are being infringed.

I would like to see a British Basic Law & would incorporate this.

Friday, November 13, 2009

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 10 MONARCHY

This isn't really a potential amendment to the US Constitution as the others have been but is designed purely for Britain & its monarchy. It works on the theory that intelligence is largely hereditary (which twin studies & other things make a virtual certainty) & that high intelligence would be a good thing for a monarch, even a constitutional monarch to have (which is questionable but I think on balance is the case). Constitutional monarchy is a strange thing - it holds that the monarch is the source of all legitimate authority & at the same time that they should not exercise it. However it has a lot going for it - indeed when the US became independent they deliberately based their government on a variant of the separation of powers that constitutional monarchy implies, except that with the President having a popular mandate he has more power.

The only power a constitutional monarch should have is as the backstop defence of the constitution having the power, in an absolute crisis, to dismiss the government & substitute a new one & having the innate obedience of the government officers & particularly soldiers, to make it stick. A well run state should be able to go for centuries without having to invoke that power but it is a vital ultimate power. They are likely also to have influence on some of the Prime Minister's lesser decisions & particularly appointments. The function is to maintain the constitution & look at the long term future of the country whereas few politicians do, or can, look much beyond the next election.

Examples of it being used are the Italian king's dismissal of Mussolini when Italy had clearly lost in WW2 & Hirohito's decision that Japan should surrender after Hiroshima & less unequivocally successful, the Australian Governor-General's 1975 dismissal of the Prime Minister. The Japanese history is the most interesting in that while all other constitutional monarchs have faced some form of democracy, for centuries they were run by a Shogun while power remained constitutionally in the Emperor's hands.
The said lords spiritual and temporal, and commons, do further pray that it may be enacted, that all and every person and persons that, on properly applied intelligence tests fails, on average, to match the IQ of their predecessor or shall marry somebody whose IQ is at least 2 standard deviations above that of the predecessor shall be excluded, and be for ever incapable to inherit, possess, or enjoy the crown and government of this realm, and the dominions belonging thereunto, or any part of the same
The effect of this would be that we would develop a very smart bunch of royals, probably improving by one standard deviation (about 12 points) per inheritance. Whether Prince Charles would be able to match the IQ of his mother is an open question but I have no doubt that Prince Andrew, who has flown helicopters & fighters for the RAF could.

The wording for this is taken from the British Bill of Rights - the unprepossessing bit where, for perfectly valid reasons of the time, Catholics were excluded from the succession.

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Tuesday, April 21, 2009

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 4

More proposed amendments from Milton Friedman's book Free to Choose.
The Congress shall have the power to lay & collect taxes & incomes of persons, from whatever sources derived, without apportionment among the several states, and without regard to any census or enumeration, provided that the same tax rate is applied to all income in excess of occupational and business expenses and a personal allowance of a fixed amount. The word "person" shall exclude corporations and other artificial persons.
This would involve the repeal of the US 16th Amendment which first authorised an income tax. This is a Flat Tax amendment. The advantage of flat tax is that it is much easier to administer. Most calculations of flat tax have suggested that the same amount of money could be raised with a 20% rate & an untaxed allowance of about £15,000. This does depend not just on smaller administrative costs but on some economic growth because of the increased incentives, which is a reasonable but not certain assumption. Part of the problem in Britain is that we have both income tax & national insurance which, despite being run but different departments, are both income taxes. On the other hand this suggests the possibility of even more savings in income tax.

The fact is that income taxes don't particularly hit the wealthy because they have more incentive to search for loopholes. It is one of the big secrets of government that the poor tend to pay a higher proportion of their incomes in tax than the rich. As Friedman says
Although there is agreement between left & right that lower taxes, fewer loopholes & a reduction in the double taxation of corporate income would be desirable, such a reform cannot be enacted through the legislative process. The left feel that if they accepted lower rates & less graduation in return for eliminating loopholes new loopholes would soon emerge - and they are right. The right fear that if they accepted the elimination of loopholes in return for lower taxes & less graduation, steeper graduation would soon emerge - and they are right.

This is a specially clear case where a constitutional amendment is the only hope of striking a bargain that all sides can expect to be honoured.

Incidentally I think this is a particularly clear example of how Friedman & libertarianism generally is not "right wing" in any traditional, being respectful to the toffs, meaning.

I should say that on one point I disagree with this intent. I think there should be tax allowances for children. Particularly in advanced economies where most women are having fewer children than the replacement rate. Families are socially required if society is to continue & society should be willing to give such supports & ideally considerably more generous ones than now obtain. Without that a disproportionate share of the burden of producing the next generation is borne by parents (ok this is obvious & cannot be fully equalised but it is right for society to take more of the burden). Perhaps, as written this amendment, under the term "personal allowance of a fixed amount" would allow parents to add the fixed allowance of their children to their own but if so I think that should be formally stated.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 6 OVER-REGULATION

Having done Friedman's amendments & Heinelin's thoughts I will add my tuppence worth. I am going to be following Heinlein's view that the purpose is to fill the Constitution with negatives - things government is prevented from doingI also want to keep them short as the 10 original ones were. .
Over-regulation being harmful to national wealth Congress shall make or maintain no law which, under reasonable cost benefit analysis, imposes a cost benefit ratio more than 4 times greater than allowed in a significant & similar situation
This would allow the challenging of an awful lot of "environmental" regulation which is hyped on scare stories & give a major incentive to fight such scares.

For example it would allow challenging the constitutionality of the EPA's regulation of CO2. If their cost benefit analysis was more convincing than the EPA's that the amount of damage caused by allowed industrial smoke release or indeed car exhausts was greater, proportionately, to the cost (Kyoto costs the world $800 million a day) then their rules would fail. I suspect an awful lot of nuclear regulation would also fall since nuclear involves slightly fewer deaths than windmills while producing more than 100 times as much power.

I think the long term result of this would clear away a very large amount of the regulatory mess that so restricts growth in western countries. I believe the ban on smoking in public places would also fail this test & indded cannt imagine it being passed in the first place though a limited ban or one that simply required pubs to have good air conditioning if they wanted to let people smoke might squeeze through.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 9 X-PRIZES TO ENCOURAGE TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS

Government shall be required to increase funding, directly or indirectly, of prizes for technological achievement by 10% more than the rate of growth plus inflation until it reaches 4% of its spending or 1% of GNP or half its military budget, whichever is the least & maintain it in that condition.

Following declaration of an emergency Parliament may authorize, by a two-thirds vote of both Houses, suspension of this law. Such suspension to be renewed annually. When it restarts the first year's funding will be not less than the amount, in money terms, than it was at the time of suspension
Currently we spend over 2% of GNP on the military & government is over 50% of GNP. For X-Prizes to fall under 1% of GNP military spending would have to be under 2% & total government spending under 25%. 1% of GNP is now about £14 billion, however we currently spend zero on X-Prizes so technically a continuous increase of 10% is still zero. If the country was willing to pass this I am sure they would also be willing to put at least £1 bn into an X-Prize Foundation. Note that "technological achievement" prizes are not limited to space, indeed I have written of the M-Prize which looks like an extremely good use of money.

A rise of 10% annually above growth is not painful if starting at £1 bn yet would reach 1% of then growth in 28 years. The "directly or indirectly" bit is to allow government to support private prize funding, by tax rebates or otherwise. X-Prizes have been almost entirely privately funded so far so I would not be surprised if private prizes would be less politically correct & thus more successful. It is quite likely that if the entire 1% went into tax rebates on private prizes about 3% would be raised in total. Because a Prize Foundation is going to hand out its prizes, if at all, several years forward it is of great benefit that they have a good idea of how much money they will have then. The fact that this is a constitutional requirement, rather than being subject to committee's push & pull, allows them to make that assessment.

The 2nd paragraph is just to allow a suspension during wartime or a severe economic crisis (though economic crisis may be exactly the wrong time to cut technology investment).

In US terms 1% of GNP would be about $150 bn, 8 times what NASA now gets, though NASA is only a part of scientific spending. However, at its height, the US spent 5% of GNP on the space race. 1% is not a lot compared to many other programmes & I have no doubt that, if the results were there, people would be very happy with this investment. Experience shows that prizes, which only pay for results, are a very much better use of investment money than grants & keep bureaucracy & "jobs for the boys" to an absolute minimum.

This is what Jerry Pournelle said about the initial X-Projects programme & thus I am quite certain that any country which amended its constitution in this way would, very quickly, increase its GNP by considerably more than 1% extra & move speedily up the technological ladder.
The X projects were greatly successful. They were effectively ended in the late 1960’s. The X programs were not canceled in the name of economy. Knowledge gained through the X programs helped U.S. aerospace firms to dominate the world industry. In the 1970’s US high technology, particularly aircraft, were the largest single cash export of the nation. They were very important in making up the deficits in our balance of payments.
Certainly by the end of the 28 year period mentioned for a small British spend above we would be many per cent better off because of the new technology.

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Sunday, May 03, 2009

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 5 HEINLEIN'S THOUGHTS: PROFESSOR BERNADO DE LA PAZ'S SPEECH

From The Moon is a Harsh Mistress - Professor Bernardo de la Paz' speech to the Lunar constitutional convention near the end of part 2

"Like fire & fusion, government is a dangerous servant and a terrible master. You now have freedom - if you can keep it. But do remember that you can lose this freedom more quickly to yourselves than to any other tyrant. Move slowly, be hesitant, puzzle out the consequences of every word. I would not be unhappy if this convention sat for ten years before reporting - but I would be frightened if you took less than a year.

Distrust the obvious, suspect the traditional ...for in the past mankind has not done well when saddling itself with governments. For example, I note in one draft report a proposal for setting up a commission to divide Luna into congressional districts and to reapportion them from time to time according to population.

This is the traditional way; therefore it should be suspect, considered guilty until proven innocent. Perhaps you feel that this is the only way. May I suggest others? Surely where a man lives is the least important thing about him. Constituencies might be formed by dividing people by occupation ... or by age ... or even alphabetically. Or they might not be divided, every member elected at large - and do not object that this would make it impossible for any man not widely known throughout Luna to be elected; that might be the best possible thing for Luna.

You might even consider installing the candidate who got the least number of votes; unpopular men may be just the sort to save you from a new tyranny. Don't reject the idea merely because it seems preposterous - think about it! In past history popularly elected governments have been no better and sometimes worse than overt tyrannies.

But if representative government turns out to be your intention there still may be ways to achieve it better than the territorial district. For example you each represent about 10,000 human beings, perhaps 7,000 of voting age - and some of you were elected by slim majorities [Ed-he is clearly speaking of a FPTP rather than proportional electoral system] Suppose instead of election a man were qualified for office by petition signed by 4,000 citizens. He would then represent these 4,000 affirmatively, with no disgruntled minority, for what would be a minority in a territorial constituency would all be free to start other petitions or join in them. All would then be represented by men of their choice. Or a man with 8,000 supporters might have 2 votes in this body. Difficulties, objections, practical points to be worked out - many of them! But you could work them out ... and thereby avoid the chronic sickness of representative government; the disgruntled minority which feels - correctly - that it has been disenfranchised.

But whatever you do do not let the past be a straitjacket!

I note 1 proposal to make this Congress a two-house body. Excellent - the more impediment to legislation the better. But instead of following tradition, I suggest one house of legislators, another whose single duty is to repeal laws. Let the legislators pass laws only with a 2/3rds majority ... while the repealers are able to cancel any law through a mere 1/3rd minority. Preposterous? think about it. If a bill is so poor that it cannot command 2/3rds of your consents is it not likely to make a poor law? And if a law is disliked by as many as 1/3rd is it not likely that you would be better off without it?

But in writing your constitution let me invite attention to the wonderful virtues of the negative! Accentuate the negative" Let your document be studded with things the government is forever forbidden to do. No conscript armies ... no interference, however slight with freedom of press, or speech, or travel, or assembly, or of religion, or of instruction, or communication, or occupation ... no involuntary taxation. Comrades if you were to spend five years in a study of history while thinking of more and more things that your government should promise never to do and then let your constitution be nothing but those negatives, I would not fear the outcome.

What I fear most are affirmative actions of sober and well-intentioned men, granting to government power to do something that appears to need doing. Please remember always that the Lunar Authority was created for the noblest of purposes by just such sober and well-intentioned men, all popularly elected. And with that thought I leave you to your labours.
Thank you"

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 11 LIABILITY REFORM

That for any suit for damages to succeed it must be brought against the individual or body primarily responsible, or previous suit must have been brought & no lesser damages obtained against the primary defendant.

In the event of the defendant not being found liable they shall be entitled to recover their cost from the pursuer, or their legal representatives.

The legislature may not discriminate between the liability of professions within the same case.

The media shall be liable for non-punitive damages for damage caused by their statements, if untrue & which would not have been considered proven by a reasonable person with the information available at the time. The court may also order equal space or broadcast capacity to be made available for a correction.
The first of these is to prevent just suing the rich person (Bloom County legal maxim - never sue a poor person) & trivial suits by idiots who did it to themselves & then sue somebody else for not telling them the coffee was hot. The 2nd introduces the rule in British law, but not American, that, by ensuring the person bringing suit has to pay if they lose, discourages discourages "tactical litigation" where they make it better for the victim to settle out of court than to win the case. The third is to deter frivolous suits by lawyers & to end the injustice that a doctor may be sued for an error in an operation, by a lawyer who cannot be sued for bollixing a court case. The reason legislators, who are mainly lawyers, justify lawyer's inviolability, is because the stress of having to worry about a malpractice suit would have a negative effect on their work. Brain surgeons apparently do not worry about such things.

The final part is so that when the press say we had better ban fire because the globe is catastrophically warming or had better bomb hospitals because the Serbs are killing civilians it had better be justified or the press will have to pay for Kyoto or wars. As Michael Crichton said why should a journalist be able to shout "global warming" in a crowded theatre.

The intent of all of these is to make legal parasitism non-profitable. While America is, in some ways, more economically free than here they have saddled themselves with horrendous legal parasitism on the costs of living or doing business. This is an unusual sort of socialism which, in a small degree may be quite fun, a la Robin Hood, & probably even gives some people a sort of justice but whose overwhelming net effect is to transfer money from productive members of society to lawyers.

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Monday, December 06, 2010

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 13 ENFORCEMENT OF AMENDMENT X and others

     Jerry Pournelle has said on occasion that what America needs is passing the equal protection section of the 14th Amendment again, exactly as it was written, but adding the words "And this time we mean it!"  and has said similar about the Xth Amendment whuich reads
The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people"
    This appears to quite unambiguously limit the power of the Federal government but current Supreme Court interpretations have claimed to find the Constitution to be a "living document" containing all sorts of powers (from the ability to control of drugs to the enforcement of environmental, state decisions onn same sex marriage and, of course medical care) which the founders never wrote into it.

       Part of this is popular acceptance of a growth in government power which cannot & arguably should not be ignored. But part of it is that there is no negative feedback system above the Supreme Court pressing it not to extend these powers. I propose a "Enforcement of Amendment X Amendment.
At the petition of the legislatures of 15% of states or of 15% of electors, but not more than once in a calendar year, that a Supreme Court decision has wrongly claimed to find a power for the Federal government not authorised under Amendment X the Electoral College shall be convened. If they confirm this opinion they shall remove the longest serving member of the court who supported this judgement.
Note that the power given here is very limited. It does not authorise the college to overturn the Court but merely to remove 1 member. If the court, with a new member are of the same opinion the law will not be changed. This is deliberate because the purpose of a Constitution is not to be revolutionary but to provide stability & some pressure in defence of freedoms. All that will happen is that the judges will not lightly extend government power & feel some encouragement to reduce it. It would likely take decades before a major change of direction was visible but it would be all the more secure for that.

Giving this power to the Electoral College may seem strange. It is because this means not giving it to the Congress or President. An example of separation of powers. I could have proposed a new body but that would have meant even more government. The founders did intend the Electoral College to be a significant organ of government but it has withered to a vestigial remnant as Presidential elections have become fully democratic. This would breathe some life into it

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Friday, November 25, 2011

Constitutional Amendments 15 Public Commissions To Cut Wasteful Government

 Heinlein once said that the way to be a successful writer was to take ideas from other genres, take them across state lines and file off the numbers (actually his SF could never owe anything important to another genre). In that spirit I am taking an idea straight from Jerry Pournelle and translating it into British:

Establish two commissions whose job is to recommend practices that ought to be eliminated on the grounds that we can’t afford them, or never needed them in the first place.

1 - The commissioners should not be government employees, and ought to be paid no more than £100 a day consulting fee and £30 a day expenses. Let it be a typical commission, with 2 members appointed by the Prime Minister, 1 each from the 3 most important parliamentary committees, 1 by the house of |Lords and one by the finance minister of the fastest growing Commonwealth country (aka Singapore). The whole thing shouldn’t cost more than $2 million a year. Any federal position that a majority of the commission recommends for elimination is automatically unfunded unless explicitly refunded by Parliament. If Parliament doesn’t restore the position, that position is redundant and that task is no longer performed.
2 - A second Jobsworth Commission. This one is to consist of 100 persons, the first 50 chosen to match the population distribution and other fifty to be selected with no such loading. They are to be selected by lot from a pool of volunteers who have high speed Internet connection. The Commission meets on-line once a week for four hours. Once a year it meets in London, expenses to be reimbursed. Each commissioner gets a laptop computer and conferencing software, and the government pays for high speed Internet connectivity for the year. Same rules: if 51 Commissioners agree that a government regulatory activity is needless, then that activity is defunded, and those who perform that service are declared redundant. (Civil service rules for redundant employees apply.) Parliament can restore any of those activities and positions, but if it does not, it goes.


The Commissions probably won’t do a lot, but they will at least get rid of the ridiculously obvious, and over time the various government activities will be examined and debated.


Because so much of the benefit is over time it must be a permanent feature of our constitution.


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  In the same post Jerry also suggested this.

change all the rules for small business exemptions from regulations by doubling the maximum number of employees you can have for the exemption. There are a number of regulations that apply only to businesses with fewer than 10 employees; make that number 20. There are other regulations that apply only to this with more than 50 employees. Make that 100. Etc. The first time I proposed this I got mail saying it was useless because there aren’t any successful small businesses willing to expand but prevented by the threat of regulation. I have considerable evidence to the contrary; and besides, if there are no such businesses, then there won’t be any consequences of adopting this. In fact, though, I am quite sure there are many businesses successful enough to expand that would do so if the regulations weren’t so onerous.

  I did enthusiastically agree with this, which quite obviously would be simple; probably very effective; and even if it wasn't, have no economic downside (like X-Prizes). It was gently explained to me that this would be entirely impossible because most of these are required or supported by the EU and they wouldn't allow it.

   I accept the logic of that and consider it further proof we would be better off out.

PS When I started this series it was aimed at the US Constitution. However our political system only diverged from their's in 1776 and it fits well here and over time the focus has shifted to what we shoukld be doing. This makes the title outdated but so what.

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Sunday, June 28, 2009

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 8 FAILURE STANDARDS

This comes from an episode of Yes Minister, called The Challenge first broadcast in 1982:

"No, I'm just Undersecretary rank. I fear that I will rise no higher"

I asked why not.

He smiled. "Alas I am an expert"

"An expert on what?"

"The whole thing." he said modestly. Then he handed me a file.

I'm sitting here reading the file right now. Its dynamite. Its a scheme for controlling local authority expenditure. He proposes that every council official responsible for a new project would have to list the criteria for failure before he's given the go ahead.

I didn't grasp the implications of this at first. But I've discussed it with Annie & she tells me it's what's called the "scientific method. (the series regularly shows his wife is smarter than Hacker but here we see she is also better educated) I've never really come across that before since my early training was in sociology & economics. But "the scientific method" apparently means that you first establish a method of measuring the success or failure of an experiment. A proposal would have to say: "The scheme will be a failure if it takes longer than this" or "costs more than that" or "employs more staff than these" or "fails to meet those pre-set performance standards!.

Fantastic. We'll get going on this right away. he only thing is, I can't understand why this hasn't been done before."
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In the comedy the civil service are absolutely opposed to letting it in, even in among despised local authorities, because once it is seen to work in one place....

Funnily enough I haven't seen anything of this proposal since.

So I propose this right
Any government proposal shall have to contain failure standards including time to achieve, cost, employees required & pre-set performance standards. The right of citizens to see these standards in civil programmes shall not be infringed.

In the event of failing to achieve such standards a petition of not less than 10% of Senators shall be able to propose a vote by the whole House for repeal which shall pass unless defeated by 60% of votes in both Houses. For laws passed before this amendment came into force 20% of Senators may propose such a repeal which will require a normal majority.


The repeal, bit is a nod to the Heinlein speech, where he calls for 2 Houses, one with the right to repeal, though I have been less radical than he proposed.

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Friday, March 27, 2009

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 2 WAGE & PRICE CONTROLS

From Milton Friedman's book Free to Choose:

"As one of us wrote some years ago "If the US ever succumbs to collectivism, to government control over every facet of our lives, it will not be because the socialists win any arguments. It will be through the indirect route of wage and price controls. Prices, as we noted in Chapter 1, transmit information - which Walter Wriston has quite properly translated by describing prices as a form of speech. And prices determined in a free market are a form of speech. We need here the exact counterpart of the First Amendment
Congress shall make no laws abridging the freedom of sellers of goods or labour to price their products or services


In some ways this has dated - back in the 1970s when governments were printing money & inflation was running rampant governments were busy blaming it on greedy workers demanding rising pay. Their answer was price & wage controls. That has gone out of favour since then, though who knows if it will come back. If so a legal restriction on government doing it would still be valuable.

The method government is now using to regulate every facet of our lives is to say that we are suffering from global warming, obesity & everything in between & that the "real" costs are not reflected in the price system thus requiring fovernment refulation. There may or may not be a case refarding obesity but it has been repetedkly shown that when the PC brifade come up with something we ought to do to save the planet it is purely tokenism & makes no numerical sense. eg trains probably produce more CO2 than most driving because trains are big & heavy; swithing off the standby light on your video saves nothing measurable; replacing plastic bags with paper ones uses considerably more material etc.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 14 "INDEPENDENT EXPERT" APPOINTMENTS

  This is from an idea I suggested on Douglas Carswell's blog. The major reform Labour and Gordon Brown in particular achieved was that when they got in they made the Monetary Policy Committee "independent" with the job of setting interest rates and thus keeping inflation within 1 degree of the official inflation target. The official target was set at 2%.

   In fact this is all smoke and mirrors. Inflation is now at 4.5% and though the MPC's weapon to keep inflation low is setting interest rates they keep official interest rates at 0.5% which everybody knows is never going to bring inflation down. So have all the MPC been replaced? Of course not. Whatever the official rules they are government appointees and are going to do whatever government really wants (as opposed to officially wants) which in this case is to keep credit cheap (though the market is increasingly not fooled) and pretend government policies are getting us out of recession, or will real soon now. Despite the nominal reform the MPC is less independent than a left sock.

  This is a common problem with all government appointed "independent" experts. People get appointed not because they have a record of being right but because they have a record of saying whatever the government of the day want to hear.

   So here is my proposal:
All appointees to senior bodies or positions described as independent and involving future policy must have a record of accuracy. Anybody wishing to be considered for such appointments must first be listed over a 5 year period where annually they answer 2 or more predictive questions. Appointments may only be drawn from those in the most accurate 1% or from the top 3 individuals for every post available. In the event of the person twice making a prediction or decision that proves to be wrong their position shall be terminated.
 This would apply to things like the monetary policy committee, chief science advisor, immigration advisers, policing advisers, Met Office chair etc. So if the met office predicted a "barbecue summer" followed by the recent "mild winter" it would have a new chair and if the MPC consistently failed to get inflation close to 2% all those who voted for the chosen policy of keeping interest rates at a historic low would be replaced by people with a history of getting it right.

  This is not a particularly high standard of accuracy to require. It would not require 2 bridges to fall down before the engineer who designed them was out of a job - one would do and he would probably get sued or charged with manslaughter as well.

The difference between economics & political "science" and the hard sciences is that in the latter answers are a matter of fact which you have to get right whereas in the political "sciences" (including global warming) the answers that get you promoted are the ones the politicians want. If appointment to the MPC were by proven competence the economy would be much better run.
                                         would you buy a used economy from these people

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Wednesday, June 17, 2009

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 7 GOVERNMENT SPENDING

Another of mine
If the government is directly spending above (25%) of GNP it shall be forbidden to increase the budget spending of any department of government beyond 50% of any inflationary increase. Hypothecated charges raised from specific duties & allocated to specific organisations not forming a formal part of government shall, if they & formal government spending exceed (30%) be limited in the same way.

In a declared national emergency this limitation may be suspended by a 75% vote of Congress, which must be repeated annually until it lapses.
The chosen percentages are put in brackets & are, in my opinion & apparently in the public's opinion too, somewhat high. On the other hand they are about 50% of current government spending. The current hypothecation I can think of is the BBC licence fee. In theory National Insurance should be the same but it is administered as a purely government tax not on independent actuarial terms. Historically such things as tithings for an established Church would count this way. I can see a very good case for National Insurance to actually be run this way or for the health service to be funded from, for example if 1/3rd of income tax & 1/3rd of excise duties were legally committed to the Health Service it would stop such spending being a political football. Or 40% of fuel duty, £10 bn, could be hypothecated to an X-Prize Foundation independent of government.

Where UK government money comes from
Where UK government money goes

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Constitutional Amendments 19 Banking Liability

     Limited liability companies are one of the social inventions that made entrepreneurialism possible. By limiting the liability of shareholders to their investment it became practical for large ventures that few individuals were able to afford possible. By comparison in partnerships every partner is liable for all the losses another partner makes. So long as those trading with them knows it is a limited liability company, which is why it is a legal requirement companies use the term "ltd" on correspondence, they know the risk they run.

     However banking is a different matter. Banks have to be big to be stable (though probably not "to big to fail"). However currently banks own your money as an asset & their debt to you is a liability so if they go bust you will, by definition get only so much in the £ back, or would if governments didn't bail them out. Worse than that, because it is limited liability, the managers can walk away or even, as the Fred Goodwin case showed, keep their pensions or assets which have been removed from the bank before it collapsed. This creates what is known as a moral hazard - that there is an incentive to take unjustified risks because the benefits of risks go to the managers, in the form of bonuses and promotions, but the costs are borne by society.

    So I think we should at least roll back the limitations on liability for those looking after people's money.

      Dan Hannan suggests this:

      reform would be the one backed by Steve Baker MP and the Cobden Centre, which is being introduced on Wednesday as a Ten Minute Rule Bill by the leader of Direct Democracy's Westminster wing, Douglas Carswell. Essentially, Douglas wants to amend the law so that depositors remain the owners of the money which they place in bank accounts. Currently, contrary to widespread belief, such assets are legally the property of the bank. Douglas's reform is to be recommended on several grounds: as a consumer protection measure; as a way of removing a peculiar legal exemption enjoyed by banks, but by no other businesses; as a prophylactic against the credit booms that precede recessions.
    
     The major, still current, example of a massive unlimited liability financial organisation is the Lloyds insurance organisation, which did indeed go bust some time ago and a number of Lloyds "names" (people who have guaranteed their assets for a share of the business profits) did indeed lose heavily, but the organisation survived.

      I'm agnostic as to how far we should go in increasing bank liability - having deposited money remain the property of the depositors so that in the event of failure they get it first/ making directors of banks financially liable for losses/ making shareholders (actually partners) liable up to a set value per share/ making them liable to an unlimited extent - but any of these steps would act as a greater or lesser discouragement of the moral hazard of casino banking and encouragement to fiscal conservatism by those responsible for people's deposits.

     In turn this would be negative feedback to the sort of boom and bust cycles we have recently seen.

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Sunday, March 03, 2013

Constitutional Amendments 17 - Binding Referendum On Any Issue

UKIP's 2010 manifesto offered

· Introduce ‘Direct Democracy’ whereby 5% of the national or local electorate can demand a binding referendum on any issue. At national level, people will have to sign up for the referendum within six months, at local level, within three months

 This is pretty much what happens in Switzerland and california among other places.

   It appears to be an overwhelmingly popular issue, indeed I see nobody anywhere, from any party, broadcaster or paper willing to say why they disagree with it. It is also one of the issues which disprove the assertion that UKIP is in any meaningful way simply a "right wing" party.

   In the traditional way of politics the only thing to do with an issue where you are clearly in the wrong is to ignore it - something that works fairly well when the state control the media, but by definition cannot where they don't.

    Clearly if our opponents don't want to discuss it we should.

     However as somebody who puts liberty even ahead of democracy I would like to suggest a slight refinement. Democracy is desirable partly because, usually, people as a whole, value their freedom. However there are circumstances where it is possible to get a majority to say that it is all the fault of some minority (Jews, bankers, socialists, Serbs, Moslems, Christians, the rich, single mothers, youngsters) and to vote for government to have more power in a way that will affect that group particularly.

     For that reason I would suggest that any referendum for some change which will increase state power and which will affect a minority in a strongly disproportionate way, should require not merely a majority of votes cast but a majority of the electorate.

    In an age where government seizes ever more powers but governing parties represent an ever smaller proportion of voters (Tony Blair was elected by barely over 20% of the registered electors and the Pseudo-Liberals won Eastleigh with 17% of the registered vote) it is hardly "democracy" when a democratically elected government legislate. The vast majority of people in Britain clearly have no interest in most parties but if you want government not to take an interest in you, you have to vote for somebody.

 It does not matter if you take an interest in politics, politics will take an interest in you. -Pericles.

     This is a minor refinement which would slightly restrain the ability of politics to take an interest in ordinary people's doings without forcing them to be politically active for purely defensive purposes. Once that is done there is less incentive for them to continue that interest by seeking to do down some minority they are not part of, thuis making everybody more liberal minded

    I would be prepared to lower that to 45% bearing in mind that electoral registers are always out of date and probably 10% wrong.

    The 1979 Scottish Devolution referendum had a 40% rule of this sort and though 51.6% voted for it failed on that basis. Probably correctly because it was to use a first past the post system which would have produced a Scottish Parliament even more incompetent, inbred and corrupt than the current lot. In any case if such a popular referendum system had been in place a better devolution proposal would have quickly been offered and voted through.

    Such a restriction on the popular opinion of the moment would apply producing the smoking ban (which affects smokers) but not its removal; to increasing supertax, but not to increasing income tax generally (since that affects the majority), to any proposal to make burning of witches lawful (since it disproportionately affects witches) but not to increasing the electricity levy to support "renewables" (since everybody uses electricity).

   This is a much more moderate version of a suggestion by Heinlein - "If a bill is so poor that it cannot command 2/3rds of your consents is it not likely to make a poor law? And if a law is disliked by as many as 1/3rd is it not likely that you would be better off without it?" - since in fact it still requires a 50%+1 majority to repeal restrictive legislation imposed by Parliament, it merely makes it more difficult for popular initiatives to roll back liberty.

  "What I fear most are affirmative actions of sober and well-intentioned men, granting to government power to do something that appears to need doing."  Heinlein again from the same speech.


   Most constitutions leave it up to a named person, often the Speaker, to determine whether a Bill fits a particular classification (eg whether it is a finance Bill) and they could easily rule on whether a proposal enhances state power over a minority as well.

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Monday, July 09, 2012

Lords Reform - Constitutional Amendments 16

  Some time ago I had a letter published on Lords reform and said I would get round to suggesting the ideal. John Redwood has asked toe same question so, belatedly, here is my view.

   It is generally accepted that a bicameral legislature provides a separation of powers of government and thus makes unitary dictatorship more difficult. For this reason the vast majority of countries now and at least since the Middle Ages in Europe, have been bicameral.

   The British House of Lords is what remains of Britain's bicameral legislature but in practice, it has little real power and no democratic legitimacy and thus serves more to create the illusion of such separation than the actuality. This is fairly satisfactory to those in the Commons who have all the power which is why, after more than a century of almost everybody agreeing that reform is needed we haven't had it. Indeed the MPs are almost unanimous in fearing that a democratic Lords would be a rival for the Commons.

   What should the purpose of a 2nd chamber. It should be an impediment to useless regulation. It should also assist in making government more competent and less parasitic. If we want a government of liberty and democracy I think it should also be representative of the people (ie democratic). On the other hand if elected in exactly the same way as the Commons & with powers either the same or subset of the Commons powers, it would serve no extra purpose.

   I would therefore not give it the power to introduce new legislation. Nor the power to bring the government down through a vote of no confidence. It therefore could not be the primary chamber or indeed any significant influence on the executive part of government.

   Instead its power should be that of pruning useless bits of government. By having only that power it would concentrate on it. I would give the Lords the power to introduce the repeal of laws (I would not prevent the Commons doing so as well but they rarely do).  The Commons would also have to debate and pass the repeal initially, as now, but if they did not and the Lords reintroduced and passed it again a year later a Commons veto would have to be passed by 60%. This is roughly the reverse of the power the Commons have now to override a Lords veto.

   I am here lifting from Heinlein's Lunar Assembly speech though I am afraid I am not being as radical as he.
1 proposal to make this Congress a two-house body. Excellent - the more impediment to legislation the better. But instead of following tradition, I suggest one house of legislators, another whose single duty is to repeal laws. Let the legislators pass laws only with a 2/3rds majority ... while the repealers are able to cancel any law through a mere 1/3rd minority. Preposterous? think about it. If a bill is so poor that it cannot command 2/3rds of your consents is it not likely to make a poor law? And if a law is disliked by as many as 1/3rd is it not likely that you would be better off without it?

   I would also add to that the :ords should have power to close down any branch of government found to have lied to enhance its power; produced regulations whose cost/benefit ratio is at least 4 times greater than that of the restrictions applying to a comparable field; or funded a quango/charity which used that money and could reasonably have been expected to use that money, to advertise/"raise awareness" of the need for more government regulation; or which had broken its Charter or articles of association by lying or grossly exaggerating. The Lords would also have the power to permanently exclude anybody involved, or anybody involved in any personal overuse of their powers, from any form of government employment.

   This is again taken from Heinlein
if his intention is to govern as little as possible-as that means he must keep a sharp eye out and his ear tuned for signs that subordinates are doing unnecessary governing. Half my time is used in the negative work of plucking such officious officials and ordering that they never again serve in any public capacity.
    This would mean that the government parasite who assured us Children just aren't going to know what snow is,” by now because of catastrophic warming would, along with the social workers who kidnap kids for no good reason, the promoters of the evidence free LNT theory and other scares and the BBC, who continuously break their Charter duty of "due balance" would at least have to consider that their jobs could be on the line. Ditto Ed Davy who lied to the Commons that the "experts in the shale gas industry" had told him and Cameron how dodgy their predictions were when in fact it was, quite deliberately, only their competitors he had chosen to speak to.

     To do all that we have to have a chamber with a democratic mandate. I propose that the chamber be made up of 300 Senators. 100 chosen every 5 years at the same time as the general election. The choice proportionately with the entire country serving as 1 constituency, Israeli style. This means that anybody who agree with as much as 1% of the country is going to be represented. I would not go for such a fully representative system for a chamber that was going to form a government, since e it is likely to be so splintered (though it must be admitted that Israel has survived it).

     I don't think it can be seriously denied that this would serve to, with at least some degree of success, prune our government of the parasitic growths which are directly sucking up half the national wealth and destroying at least as much of the potential economy as actually gets produced. There are a previous 15 such controls over government that I have suggested that could also be considered. http://a-place-to-stand.blogspot.co.uk/search/label/constitutional%20amendments

     OK now for something a bit controversial. Limiting the franchise.

    On the one hand the argument that democracy cannot long withstand having the free loaders voting themselves "bread and circuses" and that "every election is a sort of advance sale of stolen goods" (Mencken).

    On the other virtually every proposal to limit the franchise and exclude those unworthy tends, coincidentally, to leave those in the group the proposer is in, whether this means limiting it to the intelligent, the educated, the rich, heads of families, people whose grandfathers lived here, Aryans, self styled "technocrats", believers in catastrophic warming, or the urban proletariat.

    So here is something original. Let people sell their votes to the Lords. Let the government offer, say £500 to everybody willing to give up their vote for a 5 year term & sell them on at the same price to anybody who wants to buy, with a minimum of 5 votes per person. Government simply carries out the exchange. Government is instructed to vary the amount annually by 5% (plus growth and inflation) to bring it to a balance of 25% of the population disenfranchising themselves.

   I think it not unreasonable that somebody willing to see their vote is not likely to consider the national interest much when choosing who to vote for. The cynical might think that £500 would have far more than 25% of the population lining up, particularly when it is the 2nd chamber we don't have any say in at the moment. However I am idealistic enough to think the cynical might be in for a surprise. In any case I am quite certain that it would see a higher electoral turnout. People value what they have paid for (Heinlein again) and I doubt if many who had paid that money, or foregone getting it, for their vote, wouldn't use it and use it with some thought.

    Finally, the decision to reform the Lords should be by a multiple choice run off referendum, or more likely 2 rounds of such, with proper broadcast debates on each version. I do suspect that my option would be a bit to much for most people but that is how it goes. Another stitch up where the people are simply bystanders in how our "democracy" is stitched up by those already in power, would not have legitimacy, or deserve to.

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Friday, June 13, 2014

A Scottish Constitution Should Liberate Us Not Enslave Us II - Emulating the Swiss Example

 
My latest ThinkScotland article is up - thoughts on libertarian constitutional arrangements for Scotland as opposed to the SNP who would clearly like a Constitution which cements in place the leading role of the big state/anti-nuclear/windmillery/mass immigration/anti-enterprise party. Please put any comments there.
 
  Follow up to my previous Constitution article.
 
(Teaser - I have another one coming up there in a few days which is arguably the most important international news story of the decade. Don't expect our approved media to scoop me)
http://www.thinkscotland.org/thinkliving/articles.html?read_full=12648&article=www.thinkscotland.org

  What the Constitution Should Provide

    I wrote recently about the leftist Holyrood consensus for a Scottish constitution designed to lock in the permanent power of the state to dictate to us over global warming, high taxation, foreign "aid", and general busybodying, even if we voted for something different. This is the SNP "aspiration we have for our country". We won't get any referendum to say whether we approve this straitjacket.

    So I am putting in my twoppenceworth. This is my list of things that should be in a Scottish constitution designed to maximise freedom; to encourage economic growth; and to limit the overbearing power of government. This is the true Scottish tradition, going back to the Enlightenment. It may not appeal to our current apparatchiks but David Hume, Adam Smith, Gladstone and Sir John Cowperthwaite (the Scots civil servant revered in Hong Kong for letting them build a wonderfully successful city with no resources - simply by keeping government out of the way).

    I'm assuming we remain part of the UK but quit the EU. Its my party and I set the rules.

    In which case I expect a federal or indeed confederal UK to emerge. That suits me. I believe the separation of powers that such states have restrict arbitrary power and have been consistently the most stable and prosperous of states. As "confederal" means that power rests with the locals who can decide whether to be part of the unit, Britain has already become a confederal state. The very fact of Westminster accepting our right to a referendum confirms this (whereas Spain, Italy and Turkey are unambiguous in saying their citizens have no such right and the USA once fought a war against the principle). Even though it is not in the interests of either side in the current referendum to say so I am quite surprised that the enormous constitutional importance of this event has gone essentially unmentioned.

    The basic mechanism of this constitution will be to limit the power of the state to bully us (rather than increase it as the SNP propose). Freedom and free markets work - this has been demonstrated across the world and throughout history.

   Scotland should have a right to cantonal government. Areas where the locals can decide to suspend Holyrood legislation and costs (but not to institute new ones). Scotland is culturally far more diverse than England and from Orkney to the Borders there are regions which would like to be a little looser. Compare the freedom and success the isle of Man has compared to the culturally similar, marginally larger and historically more important Islay and you will see what opportunities they could have. (My guess would be we would have Glasgow and Edinburgh based cantons in the central belt, perhaps Lanarkshire to, Stirlingshire, Borders, Fife, Aberdeenshire, 2 or 3 Highland ones, Orkney, Shetland and several Islands or collections of Islands.

This recent academic study of the way Switzerland has been able to maintain a multi-ethnic society for 700 years, with a consistently remarkable level of internal peace and economic success (& a lack of empire building) concludes that it is a result of "Good Fences" ie that cantons can live together because they have the maximum level of devolution and were drawn on fair ethnic lines. Scotland has similar geographical divisions - not as clear as between Glasgow and Edinburgh but much clearer between the islands and mainland. In some ways we have less history of unity than Switzerland with only a couple of centuries between Orkney, Shetland and the Lordship of the Isles uniting with Scotland before the Kingdom united with England.

I am also going to suggest that, like Switzerland, we should have a right of referendum at both the Scottish and Cantonal level.

This is how they describe it:

....popular vote called to challenge a piece of legislation already approved by the Federal Assembly. If any person or group opposed to the new law manages to collect 50,000 signatures within 100 days of the official publication of the proposed legislation, the voters as a whole are given the chance to decide.

In most cases, a referendum is only called if those who feel strongly about the issue manage to collect enough signatures.

However, the authorities are obliged to hold a referendum if the legislation involves an amendment to the constitution initiated by the government, or any proposal for Switzerland to sign a major international agreement which cannot be rescinded.

In the case of an initiative or a mandatory referendum, there has to be a "double majority" for it to pass, meaning a majority of the people as a whole, and a majority of the cantons must approve it.

   I'll make no bones of the fact that, as a supporter of small government being more efficient than big, I believe strong cantonal government that cannot be overturned without constitutional change (which would require strong popular support) would mean that much of the country would initially show both market freedom and economic success and thus, in time, all of it would. This is what Switzerland shows.

   Vital to this is that borders of Scots cantons would have to be fair and thus initially approved by plebiscite and a constitution process existing which would allow new cantons to come into existence in future if the desire is there.

I don't propose a 2nd chamber - we have more than enough full time politicians here. I would be happy to see the MSPs and MPs folded into 1, all elected by a PR system. 60 odd people doing both jobs would not have the copious free time to come up with new bans that has been the preeminent feature of Holyrood. Obviously this can only happen when the rest of the UK adopts proportional representation too.

I suggest our Council of Economic Advisers should consist of 5 members appointed not by Holyrood but by the 5 Commonwealth nations that have, over the last 5 years, achieved fastest growth. That would be both independent and guaranteed to provide good advice. Their reports should be public.

Constitutional Limits on the Power of Government

* A rule stopping the state imposing price and wage controls (this is lifted from Milton Friedman in the 1980s and while the argument here has been largely won political fashions do come round again.)

* Citizen juries, chosen in the same way as normal juries to take over some of the job of Holyrood committees, particularly when any constitutional proposals are aired.

* Over regulation - "Holyrood shall make or maintain no law which, under reasonable cost benefit analysis, imposes a cost benefit ratio more than 4 times greater than allowed in a significant & similar situation." It would be nice to be able to apply this to Westminster too. I am assuming we have resolved the EU problem.

* Failure standards - "Any government proposal shall have to contain failure standards including time to achieve, cost, employees required & pre-set performance standards. The right of citizens to see these standards in civil programmes shall not be infringed and in the event of failure the project manager and proposing Minister shall be made ineligible for public employment." This one is lifted from an episode of Yes Minister where it was agreed it would work and thus the civil service would bury it. It has never been heard of since.

* One  of the major problems of government is the way criminal or incompetent governments can not just loot the state of the people's money but heap future governments with a "contractual" liability to pay more to their friends and them. Whether this is PFI or long term contracts for windmill power or indeed nuclear power or fraudulent contracts for aircraft carriers we don't need and haven't aircraft for.

I suggest a constitutional bar on one government contracting liabilities for 2 parliaments ahead in any circumstances and if contracting liabilities during the next parliament must get 2/3rds approval from the current one so that the probable winner of the next election (except in unusual cases like UKIP) would have accepted the liability in advance. That would also have to apply to increases in the national debt.

Wouldn't stop it when both government and opposition were idiots (as with our windmillery and a forth crossing that costs 8 times more than it ought) but should slow it down. Accountants will tell you that, due to compound interest, anything that takes more than 10 years (2 Parliamentary terms) to pay for is going to largely interest payments.

* Initially 10% of all government funding of science and new technology shall be by prizes, with specific winning conditions, available to any citizen rather than grants to approved persons without failure conditions. That if such prizes are independently shown to be more cost effective any increases in spending will go to prizes until they at least equal grants. (This is a simplified requirement for X-Prizes and thus a present to myself.)

* Government expert appointees - any applicants for posts requiring predictive advice must, for 3 years, have made such predictions, publicly reported, and been among the 3 most successful predictors and must continue to do so. So no more Chief Science advisors or economists who always agree with what the politicians want, always get it wrong and thus keep their jobs.

* Wasteful government - Establish two commissions whose job is to recommend practices that ought to be eliminated on the grounds that we can’t afford them, or never needed them in the first place.

1 - The commissioners should not be government employees, and ought to be paid no more than £100 a day consulting fee and £30 a day expenses. Let it be a typical commission, with 2 members appointed by the Prime Minister, 1 each from the 3 most important parliamentary committees, 1 by the house of |Lords and one by the finance minister of the fastest growing Commonwealth country (aka Singapore). The whole thing shouldn’t cost more than $2 million a year. Any federal position that a majority of the commission recommends for elimination is automatically unfunded unless explicitly refunded by Parliament. If Parliament doesn’t restore the position, that position is redundant and that task is no longer performed.
2 - A second Jobsworth Commission. This one is to consist of 100 persons, the first 50 chosen to match the population distribution and other fifty to be selected with no such loading. They are to be selected by lot from a pool of volunteers who have high speed Internet connection. The Commission meets on-line once a week for four hours. Once a year it meets in London, expenses to be reimbursed. Each commissioner gets a laptop computer and conferencing software, and the government pays for high speed Internet connectivity for the year. Same rules: if 51 Commissioners agree that a government regulatory activity is needless, then that activity is defunded, and those who perform that service are declared redundant. (Civil service rules for redundant employees apply.) Parliament can restore any of those activities and positions, but if it does not, it goes.


The Commissions probably won’t do a lot, but they will at least get rid of the ridiculously obvious, and over time the various government activities will be examined and debated.


Because so much of the benefit is over time it must be a permanent feature of our constitution.

*  17 right of referendums at both Scottish and cantonal levels, as discussed above.

*  The right of referendums to include a vote, at each election, to raise or lower by up to 5% the maximum proportion of gdp the Holyrood state is allowed to spend. Currently the entire state is nearly 60% of gdp. If we are really the socialists the political class insist, we would vote to raise it. My guess is that we would vote to lower it until income tax fell to zero.

    Might be difficult to cut it more unless this rule were also adopted at UK government level - but then if this system works as successfully as I think we would be an example to the whole UK (instead of an 'orrible warning as at present). The principle that the most successful cantons would be an example to the rest of Scotland implies a successful Scotland would be an example to the UK.

* No government funding of Sockpuppets - Illegal for government to give any money to any charity that, in the last 5 years, has advertised for more government. That isn't a charity's job and the conflict of interest is clear. Similarly make a legal requirement that any funding from outside the Scotland of any "charity" that has pushed a political opinion be registered and subject to a 50% windfall tax - half of this money to be earmarked for organisations committed to reducing the size of government. In the same way, over the next 5 years, be 10% as much money as our state donated to pro-government charities should be donated to organisations promoting smaller government.

The same ban should apply to any government department, quango or council and they should be limited to spending not more than 1/2% of their budget on PR/press liaison /raising awareness or such activity under other names.

    Government funding of "charities" that lobby and advertise for more money and power for the ministries funding them are one of the great and growing problems of modern society. Unfortunately they bare a problem that the press, who regularly use "news" produced by them, virtually never mention the existence of the problem.

* I would like to see a defence in Scots law to the licence fee for the BBC government broadcasting monopoly. The BBC Charter specifically requires that they be "balanced". The ECHR requires that people not be forced to pay for propaganda they disapprove of. If it can be shown that the BBC is censoring my party (UKIP), censoring and lying to promote the "catastrophic global warming" scare or spinning to promote whatever new pointless war is being pushed then I should, at the very least, not be forced to pay for it.

   There is undisputed academic evidence that the more of a state broadcasting monopoly exists, the more governmental failure, corruption and nepotism is likely to exist, worldwide.

* There is a historic Scots extension of civil law - that a law which has been in abeyance for many
years falls. I approve of anything that reduces the size of our legislation and would like to see that is some form.

* To an extraordinary and almost entirely unreported extent the pressure groups and political "charities" in Britain have been nationalised. ASH is 98% funded by the state. The catastrophic warming supporting Royal Society gets a £50 million bung. Almost every lobbyist that gets airtime on the (state funded) BBC, or most newspapers, turns out to be a government funded "sock puppet".

The Scottish government should be constitutionally forbidden to use our money to fund propaganda campaigns. Further than that - any organisation using money from other governments (for example almost all "environmental" campaigners are 70% funded by the EU) should be legally required to say so in all productions (as Limited companies are currently required to identify themselves) and pay a levy of 10% of what they spend here to be given to private organisations promoting alternative views.

* The Scottish government should fund broadcasting of genuine political debates (ie ones where both sides get to speak and the subjects are chosen by popular demand). To be broadcast weekly in hour long programmes, rather like Question Time but considerably cheaper and not limited to approved speakers. Since the time of ancient Greece, free debate has been a necessary and perhaps even sufficient condition of a free society. Unfortunately the British broadcasting monopoly has left the gatekeepers deciding what opinions may and may not be publicly discussed, to our great detriment.

* A duty on the Holyrood government to ensure any grants or payments to the cantons are  proportionately either within 15% of its proportionate tax contribution or of its population. (The ability to withhold cash by central government, or of the politically connected to lobby for extra has been the bane of local politics.)

* And I would also add these from the original 10 amendments making up the Bill of Rights to the US Constitution, a document signed by a disproportionate number of people of Scots extraction and which reflected the views of the Scottish Enlightenment. Some are no longer relevant (quartering troops) and some I would not defend (arms) but these are necessary:

4  no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause

5  Trials by due process and no double jeopardy

6 the right to a speedy band public trial

7  the right of trial by jury shall be preserved

10 The powers not delegated to the Scottish and UK governments by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the Cantonal law, are reserved to the smaller tier of government respectively, or to the people - and unlike the USA here this right comes from but is constantly ignored, we really mean it.

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   I'm sure others will have other suggestions. My bottom line is that a constitution is there to restrain government power not to give them more, as the SNP's proposals do. I would not pretend that this will create a Utopia. Indeed I'd hate a Utopia (at least anybody else's idea of it as I suspect others would hate mine).

   On the other hand, while we have achieved miracles in the physical sciences over the last couple of centuries, government seems no more competent than then. Indeed it is much more parasitic, spending nearly 50% of gdp now as against under 10%, 150 years ago and regulating out of existence far more of the nation's wealth than is actually left. Clearly the potential for improvement is enormous and a Scotland which achieves even a small part of that potential will be an example to all of Britain, indeed all of the world. Countries which, over the long term, manage to role back the macroparasitism that is big government, while not encouraging the microparasitism that is common banditry, have historically always found the world to be their oyster.

     Orson Welles came up with the single most memorable, wrong, line in movie history:

"In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock."
                - In fact they are extremely rich with the world's highest per capita rate of scientific citations per capita, matched by only 1 other. They also had peace because they were too tough to mess with.

     Scotland, is the other country matching Switzerland's world's highest, per capita, rate of scientific citations. Potential other nations would kill for. However Switzerland has politicians nobody has ever heard of because their Constitution doesn't  allow them to do anything, whereas Scotland has a surfeit of preening politicians trying to bestride the world stage like midgets. Politicians who think it is their job to dictate every aspect of our nanny state.

      Not coincidentally Switzerland is much richer than us and arguably (I would argue it) freer and more democratic. Lets change that.
 

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Friday, November 26, 2010

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 12 - SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY ACT


Not my idea, I have lifted it bodily from The Air Vent (via the Global Warming Policy Foundation) but it is a brilliant one:

By Sean M O’Brien

Up until now, peer review has been held up as the gold standard in scientific discourse. Recent developments in the climate science arena, such as Climategate, have led many to conclude that peer review is not all that it is cracked up to be. Having said that, peer review may well be perfectly adequate as a scientific standard when the issues in debate are the mating habits of squirrels. However, if the issue in debate is whether or not trillions of dollars should be spent combating global warming, perhaps a new more rigorous standard should be applied.


I propose that henceforth, five levels of scientific rigour be defined. In brief, they are Level zero which is grey literature from advocacy organisations such as the WWF. Level one, which is the current peer review process. Level two, which I will call replicatable, is the current peer review process but with mandatory archiving of data and software code within six months of publication. Level three, which I will call audited, is where an authoritative body of some sort holds a competition on the internet to “find something wrong” with the calculations in the paper with a prize for any independent researcher who can find incorrect calculations. Level four is what I will call Cross Examined and is where the paper in question is deemed so important that, a full scale “internet trial” is conducted. You can think of it as a Scopes Monkey Trial of the researchers and their paper by competent legal personnel advised by scientists. It would mainly consist of oral testimony but with anyone on the internet free to comment and interject in any forum they wish. Naturally these comments can inform the questions put to the researchers.

The main effect of this idea would be to shift the public debate to a new level. Instead of the phrase “the science is peer reviewed” being used to silence sceptics, the phrase “the science is only at level 1” would be used to prompt debate.

What is needed to give this idea teeth is a law. Let us call it the Scientific Integrity Act. Let me focus the discussion from here forward on the United States as most people from around the world will be familiar with how the process of government operates there. The key thing about the Scientific Integrity act is that it should place a limit of the amount of government spending and / or related industry and consumer costs, that can be legislated for based on the level at which the science is at. To take an example. Level 1 science, would not be allowed to justify any government spending or imposed costs. Level two science might perhaps justify $10 million dollars of government spend and $50 million of imposed costs and so on. Needless to say, any proposal with trillion dollar price tags would need level four science to justify it.

Another facet of the law would be that researchers in receipt of a federal grant have to designate their research paper as being at a particular level. In order to encourage realistic assessments of papers by their authors, a penalty system would be included that would operate like this. If a researcher designates their paper as a level three, then should an independent researcher find something wrong with the maths, the funding agency who funded the study would pay a fee to the independent researcher. The fee would be the equivalent of the cost of producing the paper. Naturally a funding agency that got hit as a result of the sloppy mathematics of a researcher would be less likely to fund more bad science by the researcher.

So the big question is of course how would level four scientific papers be selected. I see it working like this. Any government agencies, or legislators, that wish to propose laws based on science, have to nominate ten scientific papers to be assessed at level 4. One would hope they would pick the ten best papers, but just in case, there would be a provision for a minority of legislators in the relevant legislature to substitute five of them. IE if the majority in a 100 seat legislature propose some legislation and nominate 10 papers, then a grouping of 20 legislators would have the right to substitute five of them for other papers.

I would not see anyone sitting in judgment on level four papers. Remember in order to get to Level four, they will already have been audited at Level three so the math will be correct or at least defensible. Rather I would see questioning both orally and via written submissions of researchers as to why they made particular decisions and interpretations. This information would then be available on the web to anyone and the preponderance of scientific opinion and comment would influence legislators to vote for or against the legislation.

Let us consider a hypothetical example. Supposing a researcher decided to use a non-standard mathematical technique that had the effect of producing a particular shape for plotted data even if random number were fed into it. Then, if the researcher tried to defend this notion on the stand, one would expect that the legal teams questioning him would expose this and that the legislators would spot this for what it was. (Then again, one would hope that the paper in question would not have made it past level three in any case.)

Some people, especially AGW believers, may view this proposal as being expensive, both in terms of cost and in that it would delay much needed action. I would maintain the opposite. Currently billions are being spent to persuade an increasingly sceptical public that the world is about to fry and despite the billions, legislative attempts to curb carbon emissions have stalled in most countries across the world. The cheapest and fastest way to get action would be to simply put the top ten research papers that prove the AGW hypothesis through a level four Scopes Monkey type trial.

If the science emerges unscathed from this process, then I for one can see myself persuaded. I suspect that many other sceptics, as opposed to contrarians, would similarly be persuaded. So let us issue the challenge to the AGW community. Name your top ten papers and let’s put them on trial.

With regard to how to progress this idea, I would suggest three things.

Firstly, someone or somebody should do an audit of all the scientific papers referenced in the IPCC reports to see if they are at level one or two. Level two remember is where the data and code is released within six months of the publication of the paper. Perhaps a project similar to Surfacestations.org might be the way to go. Given what I read on the various sceptic climate blogs, I suspect that little enough of the science would make it to level two. As an aside, Donna LaFramboise already did a similar audit looking for grey literature references across one of the IPCC reports and found that 35% of the references were level zero. Imagine the change in discourse if one could confidently say that most of the science in IPCC 4 is level zero or one.

Secondly shift the debate. When discussing the issue with friends or in the media, explain the levels and ask them would they think it reasonable that the science behind a measure that will cost billions should be subject to a certain amount of scrutiny.

And finally, all those Republican controlled state legislatures across America should put forward a Scientific Integrity act in their state. Given the power balance federally there would be no point in introducing the act federally at this time. However, a couple of state legislatures enacting a Scientific Integrity bill would put huge pressure on the AGW community to nominate the top ten papers and put them on trial
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Afterword

I have been unstinting in my enthusiasm for X_Prizes as a means of encouraging technological breakthroughs, being at least 33-100 times more effective than conventional government funding. However I had not been able to see any way of using it on pure research because that does not produce a specific unimpeachable result you can forecast up front, without which prizes have to be awarded subjectively & we are back where we started.

Sean O'Brien has end runned this by making it not the initial research but the checking of it that is the subject of the prize. That is an elegant solution. Because such a prize is open to all there is no government gatekeeper to ensure only the politically correct can check it. Since I would suspect the prize for checking the maths of a theory need almost never exceed £10,000 it would be very inexpensive, by government standards. Indeed financially it could be run privately though this would reduce its credibility.

Stephen McIntyre investigated the Hockey Stick theory, which had passed "peer review". It would only have partly reached level 2 because, unintentionally, Michael Mann had left information on his calculations on a different obscure site & McIntyre found them. Stephen McIntyre's investigation was at level 3 & he proved beyond doubt, that it was fraudulent. This was long after the IPCC had, obviously without any serious checking, announced it as unimpeachable & spread it all over their report. Had there been level 3 prizes in place at the time I think it impossible that none of the thousands of people on the IPCC, whose specific duty it was to satisfy themselves on its accuracy, would have seen if a prize was available & if none of them had somebody else would.

Indeed if Mann had known that even politically correct theories would have been thoroughly & impartially checked I doubt he would have tried it in the first place.

Note Sean's point about it being [possible for individual states to adopt this (as pointed out it is inexpensive). If it were adopted by the UK it would certainly greatly add to the credibility of British science. It is also something the Scottish government alone could adopt with the same effect for Scottish science.

The Catastrophic Warming Hypothesis has passed level 1, "peer review", (to the shame of the chosen reviewers. On many occasions they have failed level 2, making the figures available. The Linear Non-Threshold Hypothesis on radiation has not, as far as I know, even officially passed level 1, it was simply politically adopted. Bernard Cohen's work on the opposing radiation theory, Hormesis, has passed levels 1 & 2 & being a real scientist I assume would be happy to have it tested on level 3.

And if we are going to have some appointed members of the House of Lords we could do much worse (indeed we already do much worse) than giving that as part of major prizes.


UPDATE. The BBC have officially replied here not disputing both lies (indeed making one worse). They have no intention of correcting & claim that censoring scepticism & reporting purely from the alarmist side is showing "due balance" for "minority" scepticism.

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