Saturday, January 23, 2010
The disclosure of climate data from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia
Terms of Reference
The Science and Technology Committee today announces an inquiry into the unauthorised publication of data, emails and documents relating to the work of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA). The Committee has agreed to examine and invite written submissions on three questions:
—What are the implications of the disclosures for the integrity of scientific research?
—Are the terms of reference and scope of the Independent Review announced on 3 December 2009 by UEA adequate (see below)?
—How independent are the other two international data sets?
The Committee intends to hold an oral evidence session in March 2010.
On 1 December 2009 Phil Willis, Chairman of the Science and Technology Committee, wrote to Professor Edward Acton, Vice-Chancellor of UEA following the considerable press coverage of the data, emails and documents relating to the work of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). The coverage alleged that data may have been manipulated or deleted in order to produce evidence on global warming. On 3 December the UEA announced an Independent Review into the allegations to be headed by Sir Muir Russell...
The Committee invites written submissions from interested parties on the three questions set out above by noon on Wednesday 10 February: more
Though our Parliament has heretofore been enthusiastic climate alarmists, passing, with only 3 dissenting votes, a bill to close down 60% of our electricity & thus 60% of our economy by 2050, I am cautiously optimistic about this. This appears to be what John Redwood called for recently. The terms of reference do not look deliberately skewed to make sure they just talk about leaking being dreadful but to actually look at the science. The line they should "determine whether there is any evidence of the manipulation or suppression of data" is really open to only 1 answer. By mentioning the East Anglia U enquiry separately it is implicitly saying it is not enough. I have also been sceptical of it & of Muir-Russell, its chosen chair. Parliamentary committees can, when not nobbled by the government, genuinely work.
The House of Lords, arguably more experienced & certainly more independent, did a report on the subject last year which said
There is the issue of the science, which I had previously taken as given; but many people’s faith is being tested. We are often told that the science is settled. I suppose that is what the Inquisition said to Galileo. If so, why are we spending millions of pounds on research? The science is far from settled. – Lord Turnbull Dec 8th 2009So it will be interesting. It may well be that this is being seen as a chance for politicians who so loudly rode the catastrophic warming horse to reverse themselves with a modicum of dignity. Parts of such committees are available to broadcasters.
UPDATE - Bishjop Hill has listed the members of the Science & Technology Cttee & they look like as reasonable a mixture as one could hope for, even having some scientists. Interestingly he notes that those with the most sceptical records are mainly Labour.
Friday, January 22, 2010
It can be see, in 5 parts, here.
It would be easy for any of our broadcasters to put it out if they wanted & since John Coleman made it to be seen rather than for the money, it would be inexpensive, even by the standards of travalogues Scotland's STV is reduced to filling the airwaves with. I sent this out to all our broadcasters & to Roger Harrabin the BBC' "environmentalist expert" (he studied English & has no qualifications outside that which clearly is what the BBC want as an expert.
I would be interested to know if amy part of the British Broadcast media have any intention of showing the new American programme on alleged catastrophic global warming. Global Warming - The Other Side http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2010/01/15/weather-channel-founders-global-warming-other-side-airs-san-diego in the near future.So far the only response has been a brief reply from C4 saying they have no plans to broadcast it so I think we can take it as proven that, whatever they may say, none of them have the remotest intention of being anything other than +99.9% government propagandists (on this or any other subject).
With the sole exception of 1 hour on C4 (The Great Global Warming Swindle) British broadcast media has done nothing on the subject except to push the scare story, even in the BBC's case publicly declaring that they were not going to apply "due scepticism & balance" to any alarmist claims.
There have been many thousands of hours of alarmist reporting alleging anything up to a 300 ft sea level rise to be imminent. That means currently coverage is running at a rate of 99.9% alarmist. Perhaps, particularly in light of the contents of the climategate emails, it is time for the broadcast media to at least try to reduce their bias to only 99.8%.
Doing this to reduce bias is obviously less urgent for SKY but I think that, precisely because the reporting has been so biased, for SKY to broadcast this would be a commercially attractive option.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Falsifiability, as defined by the philosopher, Karl Popper, defines the inherent testability of any scientific hypothesis...
One of the tenets behind science is that any scientific hypothesis and resultant experimental design must be inherently falsifiable. Although falsifiability is not universally accepted, it is still the foundation of the majority of scientific experiments.
WHAT IS FALSIFIABILITY?
In its basic form, falsifiability is the belief that for any hypothesis to have credence, it must be inherently disprovable before it can become accepted scientific proof.
For example, if a scientist asks, “Does God exist?” then this can never be science because it is a theory that cannot be disproved.
However I would like to go a bit further & suggest that very few, if any, theories are innately unfalsifiable.
Taking the God one - this is a theory which has probably been around for as long as humans have had abstract thoughts. We have had gods who lived at the top of mountains (eg Olympus & Sinai) but this was an easily falsifiable theory since one could go & look. Then we have them living across the rainbow but this can be falsified by knowing what the rainbow is. The development of sky gods was essentially because this was more difficult to test than river or earth ones. Nowadays God is placed in an unknowable place, heaven. Even so the other attribute of all worshipped gods is that they answer prayers & this can be falsified by noting that life insurance premiums, while they take many things into account, do not distinguish between religious believers of various sorts & atheists.
In effect then the God theory has only become unfalsifiable by continually refining the theory until He has no describable influence on the universe.
Unfalsifiable hypotheses are very much the reverse of quantum physics where it is impossible for the observer to see what is happening without influencing it. For unfalsifiable theories it is impossible for the theory to have any relevance to or measurable existence in the universe if it cannot be tested.
Such theories are inherently uninteresting. What is more interesting to human beings is the way that, rather than drop a disproven theory, it gets changed to make it unfalsifiable, at least by the available technology. This is akin to lopping off the legs, then arms, then head & ultimately body to make it fit the unobservable space.
The global warming scam exhibits this. From 1980-98 the rise in global temperature was taken as evidence for it, despite some minor but crucial problems like the failure of the troposphere (where the CO2 is) to warm more than the surface & forecasts were made of 300 ft sea level rises. Over time the limbs have been hacked of by diminishing the amount of warming & sea level rise (the IPCC now says 17 inches) & now by saying that warmth doesn't count because this is only "weather" not "climate" even though we have had a decade of cooling "weather".
The punch line is that if anybody has a claim which is inherently & initially untestable they are unlikely to get far. Much more common is a claim, which has political approval, which gets altered ad hoc over time as each part gets disproven. The people doing that have nothing to do with the scientific method and this is not an unfalsifiable semi-scientific theory it is one which has been proven false but whose followers are unpersuadable.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
There is an item on Next Big Future about Ray Kurzweil's predictions - the argument being about how many of his previous predictions for today have been right - he says 107 0f 108 have been on or close to the money. His blog advertises as having over a million subscribers. Ray is a computer geek described by uber computer geek Bill Gates as a "visionary thinker and futurist."
So I have lifted these further ones from Wikipedia & rearanged them in date order. I'm glad he works on very small engineering stuff so there is not much overlap with my prediction series or I fear I would suffer greatly by comparison.
The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990)
The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999)
The Singularity is Near (2005)
Supercomputers will have the same raw computing power as human brains (though not yet the software to emulate human thinking).
Computers will start to disappear as distinct physical objects, meaning many will have nontraditional shapes or will be embedded in clothing and everyday objects.
Full-immersion audio-visual virtual reality will exist.
PCs are capable of answering queries by accessing information wirelessly via the Internet
Computers become smaller and increasingly integrated into everyday life.
More and more computer devices will be used as miniature web servers, and more will have their resources pooled for computation.
High-quality broadband Internet access will become available almost everywhere.
Glasses that beam images onto the users' retinas to produce virtual reality will be developed. They will also come with speakers or headphone attachments that will complete the experience with sounds.
The VR glasses will also have built-in computers featuring "virtual assistant" programs that can help the user with various daily tasks. (see Augmented Reality)
Virtual assistants would be capable of multiple functions. One useful function would be real-time language translation in which words spoken in a foreign language would be translated into text that would appear as subtitles to a user wearing the glasses.
Cell phones will be built into clothing and will be able to project sounds directly into the ears of their users.
Advertisements will utilize a new technology whereby two ultrasonic beams can be targeted to intersect at a specific point, delivering a localized sound message that only a single person can hear. This was depicted in the movie Minority Report.
Speech-to-speech translation features will be available in cell phones in either 2009 or 2010
Automatic house cleaning robots will have become common.
solar energy would become cheaper than energy from oil
By 2017, computers will have become even more ubiquitous in the environment, largely owing to smaller size. Some will be woven into clothing and will be "self-organizing."
By the same year, practical virtual reality glasses will be in use. The devices will work by beaming images directly onto the retinas of their users, creating large, three-dimensional floating images in the person's field of view. Such devices would provide a visual experience on par with a very large television, but would be highly portable, combining the best features of the iPod and a widescreen TV. The glasses will deliver full-immersion virtual reality.
By 2017, "augmented reality" will exist: The V.R. glasses previously mentioned will have advanced computers and sensors built into them that will be able to recognize elements within the user's environment and then provide appropriate information and assistance through visual or auditory means. If the user looks at a building or a person's face, the computer will provide information through a "heads-up-display" beamed onto the person's retinas. The devices could also be used for keeping track of schedules, navigating, and querying for general information>
1013 bits of computer memory--roughly the equivalent of the memory space in a single human brain--will cost $1000.
A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain.
The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.
Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).
People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.
These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment regardless of the user's perspective or orientation. Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places. Third, the devices could block out the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual reality environment.
People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.
Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.
Most people own more than one P.C., though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.
Rotating computer memories are no longer used.
Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.
Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.
Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets.
Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.
Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. "Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing.
Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.
Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely.
Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.
All students have access to computers.
Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.
Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.
Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.
People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.
Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.
Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by wearable or implanted computers.
Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (i.e.--tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"--in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer--becomes a reality.
Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.
Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.
Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.
Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.
Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.
Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights.
Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.
The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries)
Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (i.e. - Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).
Most roads now have automated driving systems--networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.
Virtual artists--creative computers capable of making their own art and music--emerge in all fields of the arts.
While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.
Ubiquitous connectivity high bandwidth communications connection to the Internet at all times
Interaction with virtual personalities as a primary interface
Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis)
Personal computers will have the same processing power as human brains.
Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people.
By 2020, there will be a new World government.
medical technology will be more than a thousand times more advanced than it is today, and the "tipping point" of human life expectancy will have been reached, with every new year of research guaranteeing at least one more year of life expectancy. Kurzweil also states that 3-4 months of life expectancy were added in 2007 due to the development of new medicines and treatments
Cell phones and PCs will be increasingly woven into a global grid of computers wirelessly connected to the Internet. Instead of each device just sending and receiving its own data, more and more of the machines will be tasked with processing foreign data, creating a huge, interconnected network with millions of nodes
Computers less than 100 nm in size will be possible.
As one of their first practical applications, nanomachines are used for medical purposes.
Highly advanced medical nanobots will perform detailed brainscans on live patients.
Accurate computer simulations of the entire human brain will exist due to these hyperaccurate brainscans, and the workings of the brain will be understood.
Nanobots capable of entering the bloodstream to "feed" cells and extract waste will exist (though not necessarily be in wide use) by the end of this decade. They will make the normal mode of human food consumption obsolete.
By the late 2020s, nanotech-based manufacturing will be in widespread use, radically altering the economy as all sorts of products can suddenly be produced for a fraction of their traditional-manufacture costs. The true cost of any product is now the amount it takes to download the design schematics.
By the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from real reality.
The threat posed by genetically engineered pathogens permanently dissipates by the end of this decade as medical nanobots--infinitely more durable, intelligent and capable than any microorganism--become sufficiently advanced. A computer passes the Turing test by the last year of the decade (2029), meaning that it is a Strong AI and can think like a human (though the first A.I. is likely to be the equivalent of a very stupid human). This first A.I. is built around a computer simulation of a human brain, which was made possible by previous, nanotech-guided brainscanning.
The most likely year for the debut of advanced nanotechnology.
Some military UAV's and land vehicles will be 100% computer-controlled.
"nanotechnology-based" flying cars would be available
accurate computer simulations of all parts of the human brain will exist
A $1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain.
The vast majority of computation is done by computers.
Further progress has been made in understanding the secrets of the human brain. Hundreds of distinct sub-regions with specialized functions have been identified. Some of the algorithms that code for development of these regions have been deciphered and incorporated into neural net computers.
Massively parallel neural nets, which are constructed through reverse-engineering the human brain, are in common use.
The eyeglasses and headphones that used to deliver virtual reality are now obsolete thanks to computer implants that go into the eyes and ears. The implants are either permanent or removable. They allow direct interface with computers, communications and Internet-based applications. The implants are also capable of recording what the user sees and hears.
Computer implants designed for direct connection to the brain are also available. They are capable of augmenting natural senses and of enhancing higher brain functions like memory, learning speed and overall intelligence.
Computers are now capable of learning and creating new knowledge entirely on their own and with no human help. By scanning the enormous content of the Internet, some computers "know" literally every single piece of public information (every scientific discovery, every book and movie, every public statement, etc.) generated by human beings.
Direct brain implants allow users to enter full-immersion virtual reality--with complete sensory stimulation--without any external equipment. People can have their minds in a totally different place at any moment. This technology is in widespread use.
Most communication occurs between humans and machines as opposed to human-to-human.
The manufacturing, agricultural and transportation sectors of the economy are almost entirely automated and employ very few humans. Across the world, poverty, war and disease are almost nonexistent thanks to technology alleviating want.
The rise of Artificial Intelligence creates a real "robot rights" movement, and there is open, public debate over what sorts of civil rights and legal protections machines should have. The existence of humans with heavy levels of cybernetic augmentation and of larger numbers of other people with less extreme cybernetic implants lead to further arguments over what constitutes a "human being."
Although computers routinely pass the Turing Test, controversy still persists over whether machines are as intelligent as humans in all areas.
Artificial Intelligences claim to be conscious and openly petition for recognition of the fact. Most people admit and accept this new truth.
Reverse engineering of the human brain completed
Non-biological intelligence combines the subtlety and pattern recognition strength of human intelligence, with the speed, memory, and knowledge sharing of machine intelligence
Non-biological intelligence will continue to grow exponentially whereas biological intelligence is effectively fixed
A computer passes the Turing Test, becoming the first true Artificial Intelligence.
Kurzweil has even wagered that his predictions will be true, on the site Long Bets Betting against Mitchell Kapor, founder of Lotus Software Corporation for a payout of $20,000, or $10,000 each.
Mind uploading becomes possible.
Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain and could interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals. As a result, truly full-immersion virtual reality could be generated without the need for any external equipment. Afferent nerve pathways could be blocked, totally canceling out the "real" world and leaving the user with only the desired virtual experience.
Brain nanobots could also elicit emotional responses from users.
Using brain nanobots, recorded or real-time brain transmissions of a person's daily life known as "experience beamers" will be available for other people to remotely experience. This is very similar to how the characters in Being John Malkovich were able to enter the mind of Malkovich and see the world through his eyes.
Recreational uses aside, nanomachines in peoples' brains will allow them to greatly expand their cognitive, memory and sensory capabilities, to directly interface with computers, and to "telepathically" communicate with other, similarly augmented humans via wireless networks.
The same nanotechnology should also allow people to alter the neural connections within their brains, changing the underlying basis for the person's intelligence, memories and personality.
Human body 2.0 (as Kurzweil calls it) is incrementally accumulated into this decade. It consists of a nanotechnological system of nourishment and circulation, obsolescing many internal organs, and an improved skeleton.
Some indeterminate points within a few decades from now
Space technology becomes advanced enough to provide the Earth permanent protection from the threat of asteroid impacts.
The antitechnology Luddite movement will grow increasingly vocal and possibly resort to violence as these people become enraged over the emergence of new technologies that threaten traditional attitudes regarding the nature of human life (radical life extension, genetic engineering, cybernetics) and the supremacy of mankind (artificial intelligence). Though the Luddites might, at best, succeed in delaying the Singularity, the march of technology is irresistible and they will inevitably fail in keeping the world frozen at a fixed level of development.
The emergence of distributed energy grids and full-immersion virtual reality will, when combined with high bandwidth Internet, enable the ultimate in telecommuting. This, in turn, will make cities obsolete since workers will no longer need to be located near their workplaces. The decentralization of the population will make societies less vulnerable to terrorist and military attacks
Human body 3.0 is gradually implemented during this decade. It lacks a fixed, corporeal form and can alter its shape and external appearance at will via foglet-like nanotechnology.
People spend most of their time in full-immersion virtual reality (Kurzweil has cited The Matrix as a good example of what the advanced virtual worlds will be like, without the dystopian twist).
Foglets are in use.
2045: The Singularity
$1000 buys a computer a billion times more intelligent than every human combined. This means that average and even low-end computers are vastly smarter than even highly intelligent, unenhanced humans.
The Singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth. Technological development is taken over by the machines, who can think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans cannot even comprehend what is going on. The machines enter into a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, with each new generation of A.I.s appearing faster and faster. From this point onwards, technological advancement is explosive, under the control of the machines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted.
The Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history. The extermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely (though not impossible) because sharp distinctions between man and machine will no longer exist thanks to the existence of cybernetically enhanced humans and uploaded humans.
"Waking up" the Universe
The physical bottom limit to how small computer transistors (or other equivalent, albeit more effective components, such as memristors integrated into Crossbar latches) can be shrunk is reached. From this moment onwards, computers can only be made more powerful if they are made larger in size.
Because of this, A.I.s convert more and more of the Earth's matter into engineered, computational substrate capable of supporting more A.I.s. until the whole Earth is one, gigantic computer.
At this point, the only possible way to increase the intelligence of the machines any farther is to begin converting all of the matter in the universe into similar massive computers. A.I.s radiate out into space in all directions from the Earth, breaking down whole planets, moons and meteoroids and reassembling them into giant computers. This, in effect, "wakes up" the universe as all the inanimate "dumb" matter (rocks, dust, gases, etc.) is converted into structured matter capable of supporting life (albeit synthetic life).
Kurzweil predicts that machines might have the ability to make planet-sized computers by 2099, which underscores how enormously technology will advance after the Singularity.
The process of "waking up" the universe could be complete as early as 2199, or might take billions of years depending on whether or not machines could figure out a way to circumvent the speed of light for the purposes of space travel.
With the entire universe made into a giant, highly efficient supercomputer, AI and human hybrids (so integrated that, in truth it is a new category of "life") would have both supreme intelligence and physical control over the universe. Kurzweil suggests that this would open up all sorts of new possibilities, including abrogation of the laws of Physics, interdimensional travel, and a possible infinite extension of existence (true immortality).
Food is commonly "assembled" by nanomachines. This food is externally indistinguishable from "natural" food, but it can be made more wholesome since production can be controlled at the molecular level. This technology decouples food production from climate conditions and the availability of natural resources.
The distinction between virtual reality and "real" reality becomes confounded as foglets come into common use, allowing immediate assembly or disassembly of all sorts of physical objects
Picoengineering (technology on the scale of trillionths of a meter) becomes practical
The human brain has been completely reverse engineered and all aspects of its functioning are understood.
Natural human thinking possesses no advantages over computer minds.
Machines have attained equal legal status with humans.
Humans and machines merge together in the physical and mental realms. Cybernetic brain implants enable humans to fuse their minds with AI's.
In consequence, clear distinctions between humans and machines no longer exist.
Most conscious beings lack a permanent physical form.
The world is overwhelmingly populated by AI's that exist entirely as thinking computer programs capable of instantly moving from one computer to another across the Internet (or whatever equivalent exists in 2099). These computer-based beings are capable of manifesting themselves at will in the physical world by creating or taking over robotic bodies, with individual AI's also being capable of controlling multiple bodies at once.
Individual beings merge and separate constantly, making it impossible to determine how many “people” there are on Earth.
This new plasticity of consciousness and ability for beings to join minds seriously alters the nature of self-identity.
The majority of interpersonal interactions occur in virtual environments. Actually having two people physically meet in the real world to have a conversation or transact business without any technological interference is very rare.
Organic human beings are a small minority of the intelligent life forms on Earth. Even among the remaining Homo sapiens, the use of computerized implants that heavily augment normal abilities is ubiquitous and accepted as normal. The small fraction of humans who opt to remain "natural" and unmodified effectively exist on a different plane of consciousness from everyone else, and thus find it impossible to fully interact with AI's and highly modified humans.
"Natural" humans are protected from extermination. In spite of their shortcomings and frailties, humans are respected by AI's for giving rise to the machines.
Since knowledge and skills can be instantly downloaded and comprehended by most intelligent beings, the process of learning is compressed into an instantaneous affair instead of the years-long struggle normal humans experience. Free from this time-consuming burden, AI's now focus their energies on making new discoveries and contributions.
AI's are capable of dividing their attention and energies in countless directions, allowing one being to manage a multitude of endeavors simultaneously.
Femtoengineering (engineering on the scale of one thousandth of a trillionth of a meter) might be possible.
AI's communicate via a shared electronic language.
Artwork and music created by machines encompasses areas of the light spectrum and frequencies of sounds that normal humans cannot perceive.
Money has deflated in value.
Some humans at least as old as the Baby Boomers are still alive and well.
Computer viruses are a major threat since most intelligent beings are software-based.
AI's frequently make "backup copies" of themselves, guaranteeing a sort of immortality should the original AI be killed.
The concept of "life expectancy" has become irrelevant to humans and machines thanks to medical immortality and advanced computers.
The pace of technological change continues to accelerate as the 22nd century nears.
Computer intelligence becomes superior to human intelligence in all areas.
Thousands of years from now
"Intelligent beings consider the fate of the Universe." Presumably, this means that the AI's created by humans will have the ability to control the entire Universe, perhaps keeping it from dying
Doesn't that make general elections look unimportant. There is material there for some time.
Monday, January 18, 2010
CLIMATE FRAUD - 2 WHEELS COME OFF THE BANDWAGON
However WattsUpWithThat has links to view it here online in 5 sections.
Section 4 contains new revelations that
Climate researchers have discovered that NASA researchers improperly manipulated data in order to claim 2005 as “THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD.” KUSI-TV meteorologist, Weather Channel founder, and iconic weatherman John Coleman will present these findings in a one-hour special airing on KUSI-TV on Jan.14 at 9 p.m. A related report will be made available on the Internet at 6 p.m. EST on January 14th at www.kusi.com.James Hansen, boss of NASA-GISS & probably the world's foremost alarmist has issued a denial of the sort that doesn't answer the specific questions & has not threatened to sue which, if the allegations are not wholly true, is foregoing an opportunity to seriously enrich himself.
In a new report, computer expert E. Michael Smith and Certified Consulting Meteorologist Joseph D’Aleo discovered extensive manipulation of the temperature data by the U.S. Government’s two primary climate centers: the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) in Ashville, North Carolina and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) at Columbia University in New York City. Smith and D’Aleo accuse these centers of manipulating temperature data to give the appearance of warmer temperatures than actually occurred by trimming the number and location of weather observation stations. more
The NASA-GISS centre is the US equivalent of the British CRU & this is therefore likely to be as damaging to global warming alarmism as the CRU leaked emails. GISS, the IPC & the British CRU are the 3 heads around which almost the entire warming story revolves.
And on the IPCC the Daily Mail has this:
Claims by the world's leading climate scientists that most of the Himalayan glaciers will vanish within 25 years were tonight exposed as nonsense.
The alarmist warning appeared two years ago in a highly influential report by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
At the time, the IPCC boasted that its report contained the latest and detailed evidence yet of the risks of man-made climate change to the planet.
But scientists behind the warning have now admitted their claim was not based on hard science - but a news story that appeared in the magazine New Scientist in the late 1990s.
That story was itself based on a telephone conversation with an Indian scientist who has since admitted it was little more than speculation.
The revelation is a major blow to the credibility of the IPCC which was set up to provide political leaders with clear, independent advice on climate change.
It follows the 'Climategate' email row in which scientists at the University of East Anglia appeared to have manipulated data to strengthen the case for man-made climate change.
Dr Benny Peiser, of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, said: 'The IPCC review process has been shown on numerous occasions to lack transparency and due diligence.
'Its work is controlled by a tightly knit group of individuals who are completely convinced that they are right. As a result, conflicting data and evidence, even if published in peer reviewed journals, are regularly ignored, while exaggerated claims, even if contentious or not peer-reviewed, are often highlighted in IPCC reports.
'Not surprisingly, the IPCC has lost a lot of credibility in recent years. It is also losing the trust of more and more governments who are no longer following their advice - as the Copenhagen summit showed.'
The flawed claim appeared in chapter 10 of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, which stated: 'Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate.'
Rather than being based on a peer-reviewed, published scientific study, the claim was borrowed from a 2005 report by the campaigning green charity WWF."
To give New scientist some credit when a sceptic Graham Cogley, a geographer from Trent University in Ontario, Canada, who had long been unhappy with the IPCC's finding traced the IPCC claim back to the New Scientist, Fred Pearce the journalist who wrote the original item then re-interviewed Hasnain, who confirmed that his 1999 comments had been "speculative", and published the update in the New Scientist.
New scientist have long been eager enthusiasts for warming alarmism & it takes little imagination to suspect that Pearse had phoned this little known scientist & basically put the "2035" words in his mouth. Such is journalism today. As such it is no more science than the ages of starlets, as reported by journalists, are scientifically verified. Nor did it become more factual by being repeated by the fakecharity WWF, funded by our & other governments. Even a cursory factcheck by the IPCC, who have repeatedly announced that because their findings are "peer reviewed" they are credible, would have revealed that this glacier melt story was in no way whatsoever scientifically proven. Any "peer reviewer" doing an honest job would have found it too. If they didn't know they were the source of this evidence & that it wasn't evidence at all before Graham Cogley told them they have been, at best, slapdash. That they now now feel it important not to be too openly uncritical of obviously false alarmist claims shows how the intellectual climate has changed.
This proves that the IPCC have been almost making up their "evidence" with virtually no respect for scientific principles or factchecking. As of today the IPCC are still maintaining this claim but are under pressure to admit it is untrue. Which begs the question of everything else this organisation has claimed.
The IPPC unravelling will leave the politicians who used taxpayers money to pay for this false scare story & for the "Non"-Governmental Organisation propagandists, journalists & broadcasters who sold it very exposed. As they should be.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
According to the Tate Gallery, Liverpool, which we all have the honour of paying for
Brown borrows from art history and popular culture, working from the images of Dalí, Auerbach, Rembrandt, science fiction illustrators and many others to investigate the languages of painting and how images are read by the viewer. Brown is fascinated by how reproductions of paintings distort the qualities of their originals. Size, colour, surface texture and brushwork are elements by which original works are transformed from the familiar into the alien. Working from books or projecting reproductions onto a blank picture surface, Brown wildly embellishes his source material. Naturalistic colour becomes putrid or kitsch, figures are elongated or enlarged into the grotesque and heavy impasto, although painstakingly copied, is rendered entirely flat.
And this is from the presumably considerably greater & certainly more original & more accurate* artist Anthony Roberts who painted it in 1974 (& who isn't within the charmed circle of state subsidised artists)
As the BBC reported "Glenn Brown has frequently used the work of other artists in developing his own work, but that is true of Picasso, who borrowed from Rembrandt ... this is not new.
"He uses other artists' work, but that doesn't mean to say you could possibly mistake his work for theirs... he takes the image, he transforms it, he gives it a completely different scale." Scale presumably means some form of ethereal artistic scale since nobody knowing anything about art could fail to be aware that the paintings on book covers are not painted that size but taken fromm full size paintings.
* While Brown's Sun colouring of greeney blue may have the advantage of being more "putrid" the original has the advantage of being a colour that real planets can be.