Friday, November 27, 2009
It would be helpful if in the UK there was a proper enquiry into what has been happening to the evidence and its interpretation at East Anglia. Where public money is being spent on scientific research we need to be assured the standards and independence of the research are worthy of public support.On Question Time last night the BBC did actually allow a question on the emails & fraud. Melanie Philips, who has long written that it is indeed a fraud was put in the first position, always the hardest because you can't marshal your thoughts, everybody else gets to pick you apart & at least on this occasion, you have no comeback. Nonetheless she put the case cogently |& accurately. The BBC's own guest, comedian Marcus Brigstocke said that he had helped perform scientific experiments in Greenland & seen with his own eyes that it was melting away which is simply a lie. Conservative David Davis showed movement by saying that while warming is definitely happening (it definitely isn't now) there was doubt it was catastrophic, which destroys the entire case cutting half the economy. Later on Andrew Neil's Politics show Michael Portillo said roughly the same. A silly woman on QT & another on Neil's (Diane Abbot MP) said the Cockermouth flood "proves" catastrophic warming which may fit the BBC's assertions of 2 years ago, during the floods then, that CAGW would mean more floods but not their assertion the previous year that it would mean droughts. In fact the Cockermouth flood could have been averted if the eco-fascists had not vetoed it, which does not affect whether warming is real but does show that mitigation is infinitely more practical than what they propose.
I Have written this summary of the global warming theory & its faults on Charles Crawford's blogoir but think it worth putting here too. Strangely enough LibDem Norman Fraser, in his role as the ghost of Christmas past, has taken to making his normal illiberal assertions there, as always without stooping to facts.
That CO2 absorbs more infra-red than oxygen & nitrogen is not in dispute. The question is whether this is a catastrophic, serious, trivial or minuscule effect.
CO2 makes up about 3 parts in every 10,000 of the atmosphere which is up by about 1 part. Calculations have suggested that a doubling would increase temperature by about 0.3 C - the rest of the alleged catastrophic warming assumes positive feedback systems, primarily increasing heat putting more water vapour in the air (water vapour being orders of magnitude more important as a greenhouse gas) & also assuming no negative feedback (primarily more cloud cover which is highly reflective).
However 0.3 C is a minor effect compared to variations we have seen - the little ice age being significantly colder, the medieval warm period being about 2 C warmer & the Climate Optimum (9,000 to 5,000BC) possibly as much as 4C warmer. In none of these did we see the positive feedback system required. That we stand on the cusp of a global tipping point & have done so for millions, even billions of years without tipping into runaway warming is inherently unlikely . It is orders of magnitude more likely that negative feedback effects predominate which is why we have relative stability - we are probably much closer to a cooling tipping point where increased snow cover increases reflectivity increasing snow since we have had ice ages as recently as 10,000BC but the current eco-fascist scare is not concerned with that.
Beyond that only 3% of Earth's CO2 production is of human cause, farting cows make more & termites much more.
Beyond that there are geo-engineering things we could do now to induce cooling (putting SO2 into the stratosphere) & that we have the capability to do in a generation to induce warming (square miles of orbiting tinfoil mirrors) if the human race does not succumb to fascist Ludditry
Meanwhile, nearly a week after it broke across the world online, our media still censor as much as they can. This from Aberdeen is the only letter I can find on it & since i have sent 2 almost everywhere I can say for a fact that it is not that the press aren't getting letters but that they are censoring.
The conclusions he drew from what he saw are another matter.
Apparently some professor told the BBC last week that because of global warming (implying man-made) that "there is no natural weather left" There's a 1/3 page of this bilge.