Friday, October 11, 2013
Why The EU Is An Hideous Aberation
Professor Tim Congdon, one of Britain's leading economists and I acknowledge, a prominent member of UKIP, has calculated the EU costs as follows:
1% of GDP is what we actually pay over. Some of that is returned to spend in Britain but not spent in a way that significantly increases GDP;
3¼% to CAP and other EU protectionism
¼% lost because the open UK labour market allowed 700,000 Eastern Europeans into the UK, taking away jobs of over 100,000 UK-residents
¼% lost to waste - CFP and others, involves fish discard and effective ‘gift’ to other nations; etc
¼% to costs of ‘benefits tourism’ and such but, most importantly;
EU commissioner Gunter Verheugen in 2006 said in an interview that EU regulation costs 5.5% of GDP. That was then and regulation has considerably increased since, so 6% now.
Thus Professor Congdon concludes – 11% of our potential GDP is lost through EU membership – £170 billion.
The BBC, despite its legal charter commitment to impartiality has censored mention of Verheugen's vital admission or Congdon’s calculation ...... no significant europhile has ever even attempted an arithmetical criticism of this calculation......
But that isn't the end of it. Those in power regularly blame our recession on the "world recession" but there is no world recession. The EU is the only zone in recession it is.... 6% for the non-EU world.
Indeed the Commonwealth is undergoing annual growth of a magnificent 7.3%. The Commonwealth precisely because it is a mixture of developed and undeveloped countries is an inherently better trading zone than the EU. When we abandoned it in 1974, it made it up 10% of world GDP, barely a third of the current EU countries but this year its total GDP is moving upwards, is passing the EU's going in the opposite direction. Far from gaining benefits we have chained ourselves to a sinking ship.
But that isn't the end of it. The growth disparity is increasing fast because the regulatory burden ratchets only one way. Nobody expects the EU to achieve serious growth in the near future or perhaps at all. If that 6% annual growth continues for 12 years the rest of the world economy will double. If it continues for 36 years (when students at the university I spoke at would be at their career peaks) the world economy will be 8 times what it is now and we will be part of the underdeveloped bit.
There are a couple of reasons why the EU doesn't and cannot ever work.
Firstly we have no demos – no common primary loyalty of the people to the EU rather than the separate nationalities. That means that the only thing that does, or can, hold us together is the bureaucracy. Which is why we end up with such expensive and destructive bureaucracy.
It may also explain why Eurocrats feel it useful to scare us and have eagerly endorsed scare stories – from the 1970s Club of Rome, who promised we would run out of resources in the 1990s, through acid rain (which is now quietly accepted as transmuting into ammonia fertiliser), to the present scare about CO2 which increases crop growth by 20%.
Secondly the EU runs contrary to our history. Europe led the world because Europe consisted of small states in competition so ideas and innovation could not be stifled by any one ruler. In 1433, Cheng Ho returned to China, his fleet having explored the entire Indian ocean but an anti-technology party had the emperor's ear and he stopped exploration dead. China withdrew on itself. Half a century later, when Columbus got a knock back from the king of Portugal he could go to the kings of France, England and finally Spain – and for 500 years Europe led the world.....
Ancient Greece, Renaissance Italy and Europe in the age of exploration. Again and again progress, often magnificent progress is made; freedom maintained where there are separate, law respecting, trading states; where common culture extends beyond the state; where dissidents like Descartes could move from France to Sweden rather than be silenced. This has been the glory of Europe. Now we see China, ponderously, moving towards freedom while we are ruled by progressively stifling mandarins.
Which brings me to the one allegedly "beneficial" effect of the EU I want to end with.
In December 2007 there was an EU debate in Glasgow University Union. Robin Harper, then Green leader carefully explained to us why the "Green" movement had gone 180 degrees from "small is beautiful" to enthusiastic support of the EU superstate. It was, he explained, because they had come to realise that only the massive bureaucratic regulatory system of the EU could stop the "continuous economic expansion" we were, back then, suffering from.
It worked. It surely did.
If you believe that the prime duty of government is to enforce recession; to ensure that the future is poorer than the past; to rob future generations of their birthright; then you should recognise and endorse the idea that the EU has had that "beneficial" effect.
If like UKIP & I, you believe in human progress; that the potential for progress of free human beings has barely been scratched and that it is not merely wrong but evil of the state to try and stifle human progress then you can only conclude that the EU's impoverishment of us all has been a hideous aberration and we should rejoin the march of progress.
Thursday, October 10, 2013
Idenhtification Of A Climate Changing Volcano About 1275AD
Volcanologist Franck Lavigne of the Université Paris in and colleagues now think they’ve identified the volcano in question: Indonesia’s Samalas. ...... put the eruption’s magnitude at a minimum of 7 on the volcanic explosivity index (which has a scale of 1 to 8)—making it one of the largest known in the Holocene. The eruption, the authors note, was on the scale of the Tambora eruption of 1815, and more powerful than Krakatoa in 1883.
The team also performed radiocarbon analyses on carbonized tree trunks and branches buried within the pyroclastic deposits to confirm the date of the eruption; it could not, they concluded, have happened before 1257 C.E., and certainly happened in the 13th century."
However they seem to be overstating the influence this had on the medieval warming p
1275 AD is about 750 years ago so this looks like it is after the height of the MWP. Actually it might coi8ncide with a short plateau in the dropping temperature.
(Also it shows we are not unusually, let alone catastrophically warm now)
:But 1275 ish wasn't the end of the Medieval warming. That as the article acknowledges was about 1430.
In the same way neither Tamboro, said to be about the same strength as this, nor Krakatoa were the start of cooling trends, or even stopped the rise in temperature (even though serious CO2 rise doesn't start till the 1950s.
This strongly suggests that while eruptions can, unsurprisingly, produce years without summers they have little or no effect after about 2 years.
What this does confirm is that we can reasonably expect at least 2 tamboro events per millennium & I would guess at least 4 times as many Krakatoa/Laki sized ones. Which makes another about due
Here are some eruptions over the last 1,000 years.
- Pinatubo, island of Luzon, Philippines; 1991, June 15; VEI 6; 6 to 16 km3
- Novarupta, Alaska Peninsula; 1912, June 6; VEI 6; 13 to 15 km3
- Santa Maria, Guatemala; 1902, October 24; VEI 6; 20 km3
- Krakatoa, Indonesia; 1883, August 26–27; VEI 6; 21 km3
- Mount Tambora, Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia; 1815, Apr 10; VEI 7; 150 km3 -- the "Year Without a Summer"
- Grímsvötn, Northeastern Iceland; 1783–1785;
- Laki; 1783–1784; VEI 6; 14 km3
- Long Island (Papua New Guinea), Northeast of New Guinea; 1660 ±20; VEI 6; 30 km3
- Kolumbo, Santorini, Greece; 1650, September 27; VEI 6; 60 km3
- Huaynaputina, Peru; 1600, February 19; VEI 6; 30 km3
- Billy Mitchell, Bougainville Island, Papua New Guinea; 1580 ±20; VEI 6; 14 km3
- Bárðarbunga, Northeastern Iceland; 1477; VEI 6; 10 cubic kilometres
- 1452-53 New Hebrides arc, Vanuatu; the location of this eruption in the South Pacific is uncertain, as it has been identified from distant ice core records; the only pyroclastic flows are found at Kuwae; 36 to 96 km3
- Quilotoa, Ecuador; 1280(?); VEI 6; 21 km3
- Samalas volcano, Rinjani Volcanic Complex, Lombok Island, Indonesia; 1257; 40 km3 (dense-rock equivalent) of tephra, Arctic and Antarctic Ice cores provide compelling evidence to link the ice core sulfate spike of 1258/1259 A.D. to this volcano.  
So although there have been a fair number of these over the millennium Tambora in 1815 seems to be the largest. And that took place in a period of rising temperatures as we came out of the Little Ice Age (& incidentally was well before industrialisation had produced significant CO2 so that can't have been causing the rise).
So basically volcanos can't be tipping points for climate change though they do produce unhelpful short term (ie 1 or a few years) changes. No problem being around 10 years later but might be nasty the next year.
Previous to Tambora the big one was Santorini, 1650 (60km) (also site of the Santorini eruption believed to be Atlantis) so it would be statistically reasonable to expect something similar fairly soon,
Wednesday, October 09, 2013
Prestwick Airport Purchase
The step was confirmed in a statement by Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in the Scottish Parliament.
The airport, which was put up for sale last March by New Zealand-based owners Infratil, has been running annual losses of £2m.
Ryanair, which operates 27 routes from Prestwick, has welcomed the government takeover.
Ministers will now enter detailed negotiations with Infratil on the terms of sale.
Ms Sturgeon told MSPs some private investors had expressed an interest in the airport but it had become clear none was able to commit to buying Prestwick on a timescale that was acceptable to Infratil.
She said the Infratil board had been considering its options, one of which was to seek commercial discussions with a view to public sector ownership and the other being to close the airport."
Unmentioned by anybody is how much we are going to pay for it. The local MP says it should be for nothing but the owner, a year ago, said they had a valuation "which now values Prestwick at about £14.3m and Kent at £7.6m" but clearly the market disagrees and with still declining sales and infrastructure I think the MP's assessment must be closer.
In theory I should be in favour of letting the market work and having it close if that is what it says. After all Glasgow already has an airport and how many cities have more than one. On the other hand its failure seems to be largely because of the government caused economic collapse since 2008 plus, previous to that, government introducing all sorts of airport taxes to stop the common people flying.
"Prestwick Airport saw a drop of nearly 20% in passenger numbers in July 2011, compared with the same month last year.
The Ayrshire airport's owners said there were 37,800 fewer passengers during the crucial first month of the school summer holidays.
New Zealand-based Infratil said the July passenger numbers fell from 194,500 in 2010 to 156,700 last year.
In recent years, the number of passengers at Prestwick topped 230,000 during the month in both 2007 and 2008."
So in theory the SNP should be enthusiastic for closing it.
In practice there is good evidence that government investment in transport infrastructure is the best, perhaps the only, place where government investment in tangibles benefits society.
On balance taking it over and maintaining it is probably worthwhile. However I do not think Nicola Sturgeon or the SNP are the sort of innovative entrepreneurial types likely to turn it round.
So they should be willing to auction it off as quickly as possible to anybody willing to undertake to invest in it. That will lose the government money but less than they would by keeping funding it over the long term and more importantly is much more likely to turn it into a real success.
A couple of other things I have previously suggested could help:
1 - The Scottish government have long had a proposal to build an automated link to Paisley station for £20 million. One advantage this has is that Paisley station is on the same line as Prestwick. Which means that the 2 could easily together operate as a hub.
2 - Back in 2001 I made a proposal at the LibDem conference that the government could take on 100% of the running costs of Highland and Island airports. The cost of this would not have been much more than the subsidy at the time and as it turned out, considerably less than a mire restricted and bureaucratic system that the LD minister ultimately put in place. The advantage of this is that it would have meant zero landing charges at these airports (landing charges per passenger being higher than Heathrow because there are fewer passengers). Thus costs fares would have been drastically reduced and usage massively increased. The natural mainland end of most of these flights would, assuming Paisley International Airport (ok Glasgow #1) is close to capacity, would be Prestwick.
Not magic solutions but a help.
However there must be serious local circumstances which we aren't being told about because though passenger numbers have fallen severely general UK passenger numbers have gone up 10% since 2008 in the UK - and by about 1/3rd worldwide. Though, to be fair most of the EU would be happy to reach 10%.
Which suggests to me that the ultimate reason for the failure of Prestwick must not so much the relative success of the Luddites running Britain but the even more extreme anti-technology policies of the Scottish government and the SNP. Funny old world isn't it.
Tuesday, October 08, 2013
BBC Censored News Part 2 - Warming Scare
To the credit of the Daily Mail, perhaps the only real newspaper in the country, they report this. The BBC censor.
Antarctic Ice hits an all time high. The BBC have spent thousands of hours promising Artcic sea ice is going to be gone by 2013 but 90% of the ice is in the Antarctic so it is clearly far more important:
"99% of (government funded) climate predictions overestimated." http://www.thegwpf.org/99-climate-model-predictions-overestimated-global-warming-study-finds/
Compare that undisputed truth with the official media's proven lie about 97% of climate scientists supporting the fraud.
Average electricity bills will be £3,000 a year by 2020 if our ruling cartel get their way.
And obviously the BBC will lie and censor to let them get their way
The estimable Mail again - 50 year old fracking site that has caused no problems despite being beside a nature reserve. The BBC whores, while promoting every scare about shale censor any mention of the real experience.
This isn't the media censoring - it is the precise reverse, but the effect of the 2 combined is multiplied
six environmental activists glued themselves to the entrance of Bell Pottinger’s HQ. They were supported by several other activists, who patrolled around the doorway area, ensuring that not only was protester-freeing solvent kept at bay, but that nasty journalists didn’t ask anything inappropriate of their brave comrades.
Despite the pathetic size of the protest, news coverage of the ‘event’ was widespread, as if some kind of large-scale civil disobedience had occurred. For instance, the story featured (to name but a few) on the homepage of BBC News, The Times, the Independent and the Guardian.
Met Office’s model, one used generate the official climate projections, has big temperature rises built in a priori.
Of course the BBC know this and of course they deliberately censor it.
A series of clear and presumably deliberate lies found in the new IPCC report on WattsUp - any coverage of such inconvenient facts censored by our state owned media.
Pt 1 Syria lies
Pt 3 Assorted lies
Monday, October 07, 2013
Letters Unpublished in September/Early October
2nd Oct - IPCC Scepticism- Scotsman
Sunday, October 06, 2013
Censored News - Not Seen On The BBC State Broadcaster - Part 1 - Syria
"The footage that is now being pedalled was prepared in advance"
An Italian reporter, who was held hostage by our Syrian democratic allies overheard his guards discussing how their side had carried out the "false flag" gas attack. I cannot see that either the reporter or the guards had any incentive to lie.
Bandar Bin Sultan is the Saudi spy chief and prime schmoozer with western social circles. Currently he is trying to overthrow the government of Tunisia and establish an Islamofascist regime.
This link shows what he has been getting up to and how, excepting a minor mention in the FT, he is a British media unperson.
US backed plans to launch chemical weapon attack on Syria and blame it on Assad - leaked emails form defence contractor show idea "is approved by Washington"
Pt 2 Climate lies
Pt 3 Assorted lies