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Monday, April 23, 2012

Electricity - Government Controlled National Monopolies Not Free Trade Goods - and it shows

    Here is an edited wikipedia list of electricity prices, in cents, by country.

Argentina 05.74
Australia 25
Belgium 29.06
Brazil 34.18
Canada 10.78
China 16.0 (tariff for renewables - not true grid price)
Chile 23.11
Denmark 40.38
Dubai 07.62
Finland 20.65
France 19.39
Germany 36.48
Hungary 23.44
Hong Kong 12.04
Iceland 03.93
Ireland 28.36
Italy 28.39
Israel 12.34
New Zealand 19.15
Perú 10.44
Russia 09.58
Singapore 22.83
South Africa 05.37
Sweden 27.10
Taiwan 07 up to 17.2
Turkey 13.1
UK 21.99
Ukraine 03.05
USA 11.20
Uzbekistan 04.95
Vietnam 06.20 to 10.01

   I suspect these prices don't entirely reflect reality, partly because some of them are several years old and some current, but also because, like China, they aren't actually measuring the price paid. In some cases, like Peru where the power isn't often available outside the capital city, or South Africa, with frequent blackouts, the official price may be the least of people's worries.
 
  Even so there is a significant correlation between this and the GNP production $s Needed for each Kilowatt ($NEK).  It is also amazing how widely these prices vary. Sometimes, as with Iceland, this is because of the natural resource base. But if Hong Kong, which has no natural resources, can produce electricity at half our price that is clearly the advantage of a free market not resources.
 
    It also shows how much free trade in power would cut prices and stimulate the entire world economy (though particularly the bits with grossly overpriced power). There is no doubt that High Voltage DC (HVDC) cabling would make shipment of electricity worldwide much cheaper than for most commodities and that a HVDC world grid has been possible for some decades.

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Saturday, February 25, 2012

Electricity Prices Internationally

  I ran across this Wikipedia list of what electricity costs in various countries. The difference would be remarkable if I hadn't been preaching on the subject for years. Mostly they fit the trend of the most |Luddite countries being most expensive and those with most resources being cheapest. I assume Chinese "renewable tariff" figures are not close to the normal since Chinese electricity use is 3 times greater, per unit of GDP output than here.
 Global electricity price comparison - US cents/1kWh

Australia 19.67

Belgium 29.06

Brazil 34.18

Canada 10.78

China 16.0 (tariff for renewables - not true grid price)

Denmark 40.38

Dubai 07.62

France 19.39
Germany 36.48

Hungary 23.44

Hong Kong 12.04

Iceland 03.93

Ireland 28.36

Perú 10.44

Russia 09.58
Taiwan 07

UK 21.99

Ukraine 03.05

USA 11.20

  If Hong Kong, a country with no resources and no nuclear power can produce at 12c per KWh nobody can claim any higher cost is inevitable.
 
   It is clear that an international HVDC grid, as advocated previously, would bring competition into a market which shows great signs of the lack of it, considerably reducing prices for most of humanity..

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Friday, December 09, 2011

Remember That Irish Economic Collapse?

   Remember the coverage it got on our state media? Remember all the statist politicians who were so very smug that Ireland's low corporation tax, light government regulation economy had hit the buffers?

  I blogged previously on how Jack McConnell, when asked why, having so often promised to make growing the economy his "first priority|" had not done so, when Ireland had proven 7% annual growth achievable said "3 years ago that would have been a difficult question to answer" but Ireland's recession no longer made it difficult.

   In fact Ireland's collapse was nothing to do with the economic basics. It was because they (A) were stuck in the Euro, which in the good times led to lots of rich Germans deciding it was a good investment and (B) the Irish government making a very silly 100% guarantee of their banks so that when they collapsed the ordinary Irish had to pay off the rich Germans and being in the Euro were unable to devalue as normal countries (including us) do and had to accept lots of German bureaucrats vetoing anything their government wants to do.

   Well despite the collapse (a collapse to a GDP still higher than ours, though they started at 60% of our per capita GNP) and despite an enormous drain from the debt they accepted the basics are still good and growth is still there. Albeit not as high as it used to be but still far better than ours.
There are signs of improvement. Compared with the previous year, exports are up 5.4 per cent for the first nine months of 2011, fuelled by gains from Pfizer, Intel, SAP and other multinational companies that were drawn to Ireland in the 1990s and 2000s by its low taxes, well-educated English-speaking workforce and access to the European market.


New information technology companies like LinkedIn and Facebook have recently arrived.

Prospects for local technology companies are improving, too. Brian Farrell founded Tethras with a partner three years ago to develop mobile applications for smartphones.

He now has 16 employees and hopes to double his workforce in the next 18 months.

Gross domestic product grew 1.2 per cent in the second quarter from a year earlier, compared with a decline of 0.4 per cent for all of 2010 and seven per cent in 2009.
  Strangely enough the state controlled British broadcast media has been far less enthusiastic about reporting this evidence of free market success.

  Proof that economic freedom always works. There has been excuse after excuse by British politicians for not learning the lesson - Ireland's boom will end soon; they are just playing catch up and will stop when they get to our GNP; yes it would have worked had we started back then when they did but it won't now (Wendy Alexander|).

    For balance I should point out that the Irish government have downgraded their forecasts of growth, though still to better than ours, on the basis that the Euro's problems are not being solved. Britain did downgrade our growth forecasts, following a fall in "growth" but unlike their's our current lower forecasts are predicated on the Euro troubles being solved. Believe whoever you think more competent.

   This is not to say Ireland are doing everything perfectly. They should quit the Euro, let the currency fall and thereby inflate away the debt.

Economic Freedom + Cheap Energy = Economic Growth

   They have a serious problem that they are one of the very few developed countries with a worse GNP to electricity ratio than us (7.75 as against 6.14) because they are even more anti-nuclear than Britain and pouring money into windmills. If they do nothing this will get worse, if only because some of it comes from Hunterston in Scotland and not only is Scotland going to be short soon but Hunterston was due to close this year and cannot have its life extended by political fiat forever.  In the circumstances we are not in a position to enjoy schadenfreude over that.

   However if they could achieve 7% growth for years before entangling them selves in the Euro our politicians have no excuse for not doi8ng the same. And if they were seriously held back by an an energy policy (or more properly anti-energy policy) similar to ours they could change it and achieve even higher growth at any time.

   So could we.

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Monday, May 10, 2010

A SILLY COMPROMISE TO KEEP THE LIGHTS ON WITH A "LOW CARBON ECONOMY"

So what happens if the LudDims & Conservatives go for the Luddite anti-nuclear, windmillery "low carbon economy" that Cameron gave in his first offer. Well basically our electricity prices keep going through the roof & even worse, Britain ceases to be able to produce enough electricity to keep the lights on. Though we are spending £10s of billions on wind it only provides 0.3% of our electricity & is thus totally useless [see generation by fuel type table]

Here are figures of energy use/GNP internationally. This is similar to the SNEK figures I previously produced except that they showed simply electricity usage whereas this is less specific covering all energy use & with the ratio reversed.
World 212.9
Albania 158.2
Algeria 176.8
Angola 322.6
Argentina 138.6
Armenia 191.1
Australia 208.3
Austria 139.1
Azerbaijan 437.2
Bahrain 559.4
Bangladesh 97.9
Belarus 458.9
Belgium 205.5
Benin 301.3
Bolivia 205.8
Bosnia and Herzegovina 189
Botswana 120.3
Brazil 146.1
Bulgaria 354.7
Cameroon 222.8
Canada 293.2
Côte d'Ivoire 265.3
Chile 166.7
China 231.3
Colombia 98.1
Congo 30.5
Democratic Republic of the Congo 4746.3
Costa Rica 101.2
Croatia 179.3
Cyprus 159.6
Czech Republic 254.4
Denmark 133.2
Dominican Republic 136.2
Ecuador 221.4
Egypt 201.4
El Salvador 146.4
Eritrea 215
Estonia 295.9
Ethiopia 389.9
Finland 269.1
France 170.5
Gabon 204.5
Georgia 244.3
Germany 163.9
Ghana 198.7
Greece 137.8
Guatemala 153.3
Haiti 159.4
Honduras 202.3
Hong Kong 91.4
Hungary 178.4
Iceland 401.4
India 189.5
Indonesia 239.3
Iran 316.1
Ireland 107.6
Israel 141.3
Italy 122.8
Jamaica 401.1
Japan 154
Jordan 253.1
Kazakhstan 539
Kenya 467.6
South Korea 238.2
Kuwait 481
Kyrgyzstan 319.3
Latvia 189.6
Lebanon 327
Lithuania 233.7
Luxembourg 153.7
Macedonia 222.1
Malaysia 257.5
Malta 130.7
Mexico 180.3
Moldova 528
Morocco 96.4
Mozambique 409
Namibia 102
Nepal 248.1
Netherlands 172.4
New Zealand 206.4
Nicaragua 181.9
Nigeria 776.6
Norway 172.2
Oman 361.6
Pakistan 236.1
Panama 132.3
Paraguay 155.9
Peru 86.7
Philippines 127.4
Poland 212.2
Portugal 138.2
Romania 248.7
Russian Federation 519
Saudi Arabia 448
Senegal 155.1
Singapore 213.8
Slovakia 273.4
Slovenia 190.2
South Africa 265.1
Spain 142.5
Sri Lanka 120.8
Sudan 266.7
Sweden 216.9
Switzerland 122.3
Syria 294.3
Tajikistan 486.3
Tanzania 783.5
Thailand 199.1
Togo 318.2
Trinidad and Tobago 766.2
Tunisia 123.3
Turkey 167.1
Ukraine 565.9
United Arab Emirates 481.3
United Kingdom 141.2
United States 221.7
Uruguay 94.5
Uzbekistan 1253
Venezuela 434.2
Viet Nam 227.3
Yemen 335.9
Zambia 729.4
Zimbabwe 374.6

This shows that UK energy use already puts us near the bottom of energy users ahead only of Argentina, Austria, Bangladesh, Colombia, Congo, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Malta, Morocco, Namibia, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Portugal, Switzerland, Tunisia & Uruguay. Apart from Hong Kong which, being a city state, has less diffuse energy needs that is an unprepossessing crowd & the pure electricity rather than energy figures measured by SNEK remove Austria, Italy & Switzerland, the most successful of them.

We need to stop the lights going out at almost any cost. Nuclear power would, by a long way, be the option chosen by any sane government but since all our main political parties are driven by insane ideological Luddite parasites we need another option that will at least minimise the increase in 25,000 deaths fuel poverty already causes unnecessarily annually.

I have previously suggested the world build a High Voltage Direct Current International Grid.

Doing it on a smaller scale we could just build 2 or 3 new interconnectors. We already have one to France which provides 5% of UK electricity & is all that is keeping the lights on in Britain.

This shows Europe's already existing interconnectors (red), under construction (green) & proposed (blue dotted)

So lets get on with building them. Better yet extend the Norwegian one to Russia which, producing 2.5 times the world average of energy to GNP & 4 times what we do would clearly be able to sell it to us at a competitive rate.

As I say buying foreign electricity, largely nuclear generated if from France, Sweden or Russia, is not remotely as sensible as making our own but it is infinitely more sensible than letting the lights go out.

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Tuesday, June 17, 2008

SNEK ($s needed for each kilowatt-hour) COMPARED TO PER CAPITA WEALTH

Lets see how these figures pan out:

STATE-------PER CAPITA-------------SNEK
5. Norway 46,300 $----------------$2.17
6. Ireland 44,500 $---------------$7.75
7. United States 44,000 $---------$3.62
11. Iceland 38,000 $--------------$1.50
12. Hong Kong 37,300 $------------$7.30
13. Denmark 37,000 $--------------$6.00
14. Canada 35,600 $---------------$2.34
16. Austria 34,600 $--------------$5.30
18. Switzerland 34,000 $----------$5.17
19. Finland 33,700 $--------------$2.15
20. Australia 33,300 $------------$3.47
21. Japan 33,100 $----------------$4.40
22. Belgium 33,000 $--------------$4.53
23. Sweden 32,200 $---------------$2.50
24. Netherlands 32,100 $----------$5.91
25. Germany 31,900 $--------------$5.16
26. United Kingdom 31,800 $-------$6.14
27. Singapore 31,400 $------------$6.33
28. France 31,100 $---------------$4.54
29. Italy 30,200 $----------------$5.82
32. Taiwan 29,500 $---------------$3.14
33. Spain 27,400 $----------------$5.56
34. Israel 26,800 $---------------$4.33
35. New Zealand 26,200 $----------$3.19
40. Korea, South 24,500 $---------$3.26
42. Greece 24,000 $---------------$6.01
44. Kuwait 23,100 $---------------$3.61
46. Czech Republic 21,900 $-------$4.15
52. Portugal 19,800 $-------------$4.71
54. Puerto Rico 19,300 $----------$3.53
56. Slovakia 18,200 $-------------$4.40
57. Hungary 17,600 $--------------$5.33
62. Argentina 15,200 $------------$5.89
66. Poland 14,300 $---------------$5.17
68. Saudi Arabia 13,600 $---------$3.88
70. South Africa 13,300 $---------$1.94
71. Malaysia 12,900 $-------------$4.15
72. Chile 12,700 $----------------$4.81
74. Libya 12,300 $----------------$4.16
75. Russia 12,200 $---------------$2.12
79. Bulgaria 10,700 $-------------$3.32
Mexico 10,700 $-----------------$7.34
81. Kazakhstan 9,400 $------------$2.21
82. Thailand 9,200 $--------------$4.39
83. Romania 9,100 $---------------$4.17
84. Turkey 9,000 $----------------$6.88
85. Brazil 8,800 $----------------$4.99
Tunisia 8,800 $-----------------$7.00
88. Iran 8,700 $------------------$3.84
89. Colombia 8,600 $--------------$8.21
96. Belarus 8,100 $---------------$3.62
97. Ukraine 7,800 $---------------$1.76
99. China 7,700 $-----------------$2.45
100. Algeria 7,600 $--------------$8.03
104. Venezuela 7,200 $------------$4.59
107. Peru 6,600 $-----------------$9.50
118. Philippines 5,000 $----------$6.12
125. Sri Lanka 4,700 $-----------$11.57
126. Morocco 4,600 $--------------$5.92
129. Angola 4,400 $--------------$45.50
Serbia 4,300$ not known
131. Egypt 4,200 $----------------$4.81
132. Syria 4,100 $----------------$2.56
134. Indonesia 3,900 $------------$7.75
137. India 3,800 $----------------$6.12
143. Vietnam 3,100 $--------------$4.33
147. Iraq 2,900 $-----------------$2.83
154. Pakistan 2,600 $-------------$6.11
158. Sudan 2,400 $---------------$27.00
160. Bangladesh 2,300 $----------$10.89
173. Burma 1,800 $---------------$22.75
181. Nigeria 1,500 $-------------$17.18
205. Afghanistan 800 $-----------$40.00

That's more like it. So dividing it into 6 lots of 6 (excluding Serbia) we find
Average snek for top 12 (Norway-Japan) = 4.26
for next 12 (Belgium-New Zealand) = 4.76
for next 12 (South Korea-South Africa) = 4.32
for next 12 (Malaysia-Tunisia) = 4.62
for next 12 (Iran-Angola) = 9.26 (even without the Angola figure it would have been 5.96)
for next 12 (Egypt-Afghanistan) = 12.71

So we have a slightly lower snek at the wealthiest levels generally rising, though not greater than the level of random variation, until we reach income levels of about figures of about $7,500 at which point the snek rises abruptly.

Incidentally had Ireland, Hong Kong & Denmark not been in the first section it would have shown a figure of 3.34. Had the UK & Singapore not been in the 2nd section it would have had a snek of 4.46. One shouldn't really take out inconvenient figures & I am not putting these up as "real" figures however I think Hong Kong & Singapore which are non-nuclear because of lack of space & Denmark & Ireland out of ideological reasons & Britain which, for the same ideological reasons is letting our supply disappear could reasonably be taken out.

We may be seeing 2 lines compounding. A graph of well run countries would show the snek reducing to much lower levels at the wealthiest end (as Finland has managed) but there is also a line for the political influence of the "environmentalist" movement who, in promoting anti-nuclear & "alternative power" policies push costs up & consumption down. Because this is an essentially parasitic movement which appeals to people with few real problems to worry about this occurs much more in wealthy countries.

The last section may also be overstating the relationship between poverty super-low electricity consumption. It can be divided into poor countries which nonetheless have infrastructure & governments at least trying & places where neither electricity nor the government's writ runs very much outside the capital city (Angola also fits this). I think any country with a Snek above Peru at 9.50 is likely to be a very dangerous place.

PS I am now reading a US govt report on the increasing number of "failed states" & what the US cavalry should do about it. On p26 they mention is passing "One reason for the resurgence of Sendero Luminoso in Peru, for example, has been that in most respects, the state does not exist outside Lima" which reinforces the conclusion I came to in my previous paragraph about states with sneks of 9.5 & above being ones where the rule of law is breaking down. This has consequences for countries such as the UK with a snek of 2/3rds of that & the looming closure of 40% of our electric power. http://www.scribd.com/doc/3570373/The-Decline-Of-State-And-US-Strategy

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Monday, June 16, 2008

SNEK ($s needed for each kilowatt hour) COMPARED TO GROWTH RATE

Having done my $nek figures for 75 countries I have decided to see how they correlate with growth rates taken from GeographyIQ. A lot of the fastest growing countries are tiny & I am omitting them as being prone to being statistical anomalies anyway or having discovered oil:

STATE-------GROWTH RATE-----------SNEK
4. Angola 15.00 %----------------$45.50*!
7. Kuwait 12.60 %-----------------$3.61*
12. China 10.70 %-----------------$2.45
14. Kazakhstan 10.60 %------------$2.21*
16. Venezuela 10.30 %-------------$4.59*
18. Belarus 9.90 %----------------$3.62
19. Sudan 9.60 %-----------------$27.00*
22. India 9.20 %------------------$6.12
23. United Arab Emirates 8.90 %---$3.17*
25. Argentina 8.50 %--------------$5.89
27. Slovakia 8.30 %---------------$4.40
28. Vietnam 8.20 %----------------$4.33
30. Afghanistan 8.00 %-----------$40.00!
Peru 8.00 %---------------------$9.50
33. Singapore 7.90 %--------------$6.33
38. Romania 7.70 %----------------$4.17
39. Sri Lanka 7.50 %-------------$11.57
46. Ukraine 7.10 %----------------$1.76
51. Colombia 6.80-----------------$8.21
Egypt 6.80 %------------------$4.81
Hong Kong 6.80 %----------------$7.30
55. Russia 6.70 %-----------------$2.12*
57. Bangladesh 6.60 %------------$10.89
Pakistan 6.60 %-----------------$6.11
62. Bulgaria 6.30 %---------------$3.32
66. Czech Republic 6.10 %---------$4.15
Libya 6.10 %--------------------$4.16*
68. Ireland 6.00 %----------------$7.75
73. Malaysia 5.90 %---------------$4.15
Serbia 5.90 %---------------not given
75. Poland 5.80 %-----------------$5.17
80. Finland 5.50 %----------------$2.11
Indonesia 5.50 %----------------$7.75*
85. Philippines 5.40 %------------$6.12
87. Nigeria 5.30 %---------------$17.18*
Turkey 5.30 %-------------------$6.88
93. Tunisia 5.10 %----------------$7.00
97. South Africa 5.00 %-----------$1.94
103. Israel 4.80 %----------------$4.33
Korea, South 4.80 %-------------$3.26
Mexico 4.80 %-------------------$7.34
Thailand 4.80 %-----------------$4.39
107. Sweden 4.70 %----------------$2.50
109. Norway 4.60 %----------------$2.17
Taiwan 4.60 %-------------------$3.14
120. Iran 4.30 %------------------$3.84
121. Chile 4.20 %-----------------$4.81
Greece 4.20 %-------------------$6.02
124. Ecuador 4.10 %--------------$11.00
129. Hungary 3.90 %---------------$5.33
Spain 3.90 %--------------------$5.56
134. Brazil 3.70 %----------------$4.99
138. Syria 3.50 %-----------------$2.56
146. Austria 3.30 %---------------$5.30
147. Denmark 3.20 %---------------$6.00
United States 3.20 %------------$3.62
153. Algeria 3.00 %---------------$8.03
Belgium 3.00 %------------------$4.53
Burma 3.00 %-------------------$22.75
159. Netherlands 2.90 %-----------$5.91
160. United Kingdom 2.80 %--------$6.14
161. Australia 2.70 %-------------$3.47
Canada 2.70 %-------------------$2.34*
Germany 2.70 %------------------$5.16
Switzerland 2.70 %--------------$5.17
166. Iceland 2.60 %---------------$1.50
170. Iraq 2.40 %------------------$2.83*!
Saudi Arabia 2.40 %-------------$3.83*
176. Japan 2.20 %-----------------$4.40
177. France 2.10 %----------------$4.54
184. Italy 1.90 %-----------------$5.82
188. New Zealand 1.50 %-----------$3.19
189. Portugal 1.30 %--------------$4.71
200. Puerto Rico 0.50 %-----------$3.35

I have to admit that excluding those marked"*" for being oil rich & "!" for "recovering" from war I don't see much of a trend. China, Ukraine & Russia, with low Sneks are all in the top 66: but Finland, South Africa, Sweden & Norway, all with rates less than 3 are in the next 66 & Syria & Iceland are in the last 1/3rd. It may well be that a number of factors are being co-mingled such as the high readings for subsistence economies. the fact that faster growing economies will, if they don't keep increasing generation capacity, automatically see the ratio of GDP to capacity increase; that a 1% miscalculation in figures will move about 20 points up or down. It is probably true that one year's figures are a snapshot not trend. Ah well back to the drawing board. Tomorrow I will check Snek against per capita GDP.

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Sunday, June 15, 2008

S.N.E.K. - $s Needed for Each Kilowatt-hour

I thought if I am going to write on this measure I should come up with an acronym. I admit to being an old Judge Dredd fan, where they have used Snek as a swear word for decades. Lets consider it retroactively adding a bit of economics to the governance of Mega-City One

CONTINUING THE LIST
STATE----------GDP----ELECTRICITY---SNEK
26 Thailand $ 519--------118--------$4.39
27 South Africa $ 467----241--------$1.94
28 Pakistan $ 410---------67--------$6.11
29 Egypt $ 404------------84--------$4.81
30 Belgium $ 376----------83--------$4.53
31 Malaysia $ 357---------79--------$4.51
32 Sweden $ 335----------134--------$2.50
33 Venezuela $ 335--------73--------$4.59
34 Greece $ 325-----------54--------$6.02
35 Ukraine $ 320---------182--------$1.76
36 Colombia $ 320---------39--------$8.21
37 Austria $ 318----------60--------$5.30
38 Switzerland $ 300------58--------$5.17
39 Philippines $ 300------49--------$6.12
40 Hong Kong $ 292--------40--------$7.30
41 Nigeria $ 292----------17-------$17.18
42 Czech Republic $ 249---60--------$4.15
43 Norway $ 247----------114--------$2.17
44 Romania $ 246----------59--------$4.17
45 Chile $ 231------------48--------$4.81
46 Portugal $ 231---------49--------$4.71
47 Singapore $ 228--------36--------$6.33
48 Algeria $ 225----------28--------$8.03
49 Vietnam $ 221----------51--------$4.33
50 Peru $219--------------23--------$9.50
51 Bangladesh $ 207-------19-------$10.89
52 Denmark $ 204----------34--------$6.00
53 Hungary $ 191----------36--------$5.33
54 Ireland $ 186----------24--------$7.75
55 Israel $ 186-----------43--------$4.33
56 Finland $ 186----------88--------$2.11
57 Kazakhstan $ 168-------76--------$2.21
58 United Arab Emirates $ 168---53--$3.17
59 Kuwait $ 130-----------36--------$3.61
60 Morocco $ 125----------21--------$5.92
61 New Zealand $ 118------37--------$3.19
62 Slovakia $ 110---------25--------$4.40
63 Belarus $ 105----------29--------$3.62
64 Iraq $ 102-------------36--------$2.83
65 Ecuador $ 99------------9-------$11.00
66 Angola $ 91-------------2-------$45.50
67 Burma $ 91--------------4-------$22.75
68 Syria $ 87-------------34--------$2.56
69 Bulgaria $ 86----------37--------$3.32
70 Sri Lanka $ 81----------7-------$11.57
71 Sudan $ 81--------------3-------$27.00
72 Puerto Rico $ 77-------23--------$3.35
73 Serbia $ 77 not given
74 Tunisia $ 77-----------11--------$7.00
75 Libya $75--------------18--------$4.16

Which I think is as far as it is useful to go. Once again we see the developed countries very largely lying in the $5.40-$2.40 range. Ukraine Norway & Finland lying below - Finland is building nuclear, Norway has lots of hydro & much GDP comes from oil & Ukraine is still benefiting from cheap Russian gas. Greece, Hong Kong, Singapore, Denmark & Ireland, among developed countries score above - 2 of those are city states with limited land for generators & possibley use less per capita because of the heat island effect in urban living; Denmark has made a big thing politically of windmills & most of its power seems to come from Norwegian & Swedish hydro: Ireland has a problem because it also has spent a lot on windmills with nothing to show for it & also gets a lot of power from Hunterston in Scotland, where we are already facing blackouts after it closes.

We also see a lot of really poor countries where I assume electricity is limited to cities on good days. Insofar as they depend on subsistence farming they can do without so much of it & insofar as they do without much electricity they are going to depend on subsistence farming.

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Saturday, June 14, 2008

ELECTRICITY USE & PRODUCTIVITY WORLDWIDE - Ist SNEK


Following yesterday's article here are figures in billions of $ & kilowatt hours for GDP & electricity consumption of the world, the EU & the top 23 countries.

Note that, as in golf, a high score is bad since it means the economy has an ever more constricting bottleneck in electricity production, at least in countries where subsistence farming is not common:

State -----------GDP-------Electricty--wealth for 1 kwh
1 World--------------$ 65,610--------16,830------$3.90
2 European Union-----$ 14,380---------2,820-----$5.10
3 United States------$ 13,840---------3,816-----$3.62
4 China---------------$ 6,991---------2,859-----$2.45
Note that China is now producing more electricity than the entire EU this is a historic & worldshaking change
5 Japan---------------$ 4,290-----------974-----$4,40
6 India---------------$ 2,989-----------488-----$6.12
7 Germany-------------$ 2,810-----------545-----$5.16
8 United Kingdom -----$ 2,137-----------348-----$6.14
9 Russia--------------$ 2,088-----------985-----$2.12
10 France-------------$ 2,047-----------451-----$4.54
11 Brazil-------------$ 1,836-----------368-----$4.99
12 Italy--------------$ 1,786-----------307-----$5.82
13 Spain--------------$ 1,352-----------243-----$5.56
14 Mexico-------------$ 1,346-----------183-----$7.34
15 Canada-------------$ 1,266-----------540-----$2.34
16 Korea, South-------$ 1,201-----------368-----$3.26
17 Turkey---------------$ 888-----------129-----$6.88
18 Indonesia------------$ 837-----------108-----$7.75
19 Australia------------$ 760-----------219-----$3.47
20 Iran-----------------$ 753-----------136-----$3.84
21 Taiwan---------------$ 695-----------221-----$3.14
22 Netherlands----------$ 639-----------108-----$5.91
23 Poland---------------$ 620-----------120-----$5.17
24 Saudi Arabia---------$ 564-----------147-----$3.83
25 Argentina------------$ 524------------89-----$5.89

and trying a few smaller countries with either high growth or particular power situations:

Ireland------------------$186-------------24----$7.75 Could be trouble
Israel-------------------$186-------------43----$4.33 Difficulty in importing
Singapore----------------$228-------------36----$6.33 Small overcrowded island
Iceland-------------------$12--------------8----$1.50 Hydro & geothermal
Bangladesh---------------$206-------------19---$10.84 Basket case
South Africa-------------$467------------241----$1.94 Use a lot in mining?
Norway-------------------$247------------114----$2.17 Lots of hydro
Afghanistan---------------$35------------0.8---$40.00 Hmmm

So the vast majority of big economies have a productivity within $1.50 per kwh of the world average of $3.90. The Chinese ration is at the very bottom of this distribution & Russia, with plentiful supplies of everything even lower which suggests both have the potential for massive growth, which indeed is what they have been achieving. Brazil, Indonesia & India are high but all are undeveloped. Bangladesh even moreso. Climate seems to have little effect with Singapore on the equator being a low user but nearby Australia being a high one. What is clear is that countries with large resources of power & where it is presumably fairly cheap use a lot of it & countries in the EU where we are all "environmentally conscious" but not conscious of much else, use relatively little.

Because the really poor countries have little electricity the average figure for developed countries may be different. Taking an average of the US, China & Japan (top developed non-EU economies) we get $3.49 productivity per kw which may be a good figure to aim for.

As you will see the UK figure of $6.14 is pretty disastrous, making us 3rd worst among the worlds 23 biggest after Indonesia & Mexico, both undeveloped & not visibly going anywhere & thus worst in the world among large developed economies. If I was running Mexico I would be inviting US companies to build lots of reactors south of the border, which I suspect they would do for free if promised 1/3rd of the power would go north. Note that the top 23 make up over 77% of the world economy). It looks like the constant Green assurances that we can do fine by just conserving won't cut it.

What this means is that if we could produce power at the cost of 1.3p a unit as France does with nuclear we could easily double our electricity usage, I would bet on quadruple & get our economy into the ranks of the world's fastest growing.

To do this we need to do 2 things

1) Build new nuclear - If we were to complete 6 new 1,000 mw reactors a year (which probably means starting 12 a year for 8 years & assuming they will take 4 years to build) we would be increasing our production by 10% a year, which would allow us the potential for comparable growth. This does not mean 12 new sites - you can put as many reactors as we want on current sites - Britain is a geographically small country so transmission losses are not the problem they would be elsewhere.

2) Don't let the "environmentalist" Luddites load these reactors down with immense bureaucratic costs. Professor Bernard Cohen has written on how reactor costs were artificially multiplied perhaps 10 times by regulation in the US & it is quite obvious that the eco-fascists here intend to use prolonging enquiries, violence& regulations to make everything many times more expensive & delayed than need be. We know it is possible to produce power at 1.3p a kilowatt hour because it is being done in France. And to build within 3.5 years because Westinghouse have said they can. Any delay & cost beyond that is going to cost us dearly & probably lead to blackouts. It is the prime duty of government to protect against enemies, domestic & foreign & allow people to carry out their business in freedom. I absolutely defend the eco-fascist's right not to use nuclear electricity themselves, though I know of none who do, but it is government's duty to ensure they do not deprive the rest of us of electricity & prosperity.

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