
Thursday, June 19, 2014
Going Beyond Maurice Saatchi's Cutting Corporation Tax Idea
Maurice Saatchi has produced for the Centre For Policy Studies (and implicitly for the Tory Party) a proposal to abolish Corporation Tax for all but the 10% of largest companies and also abolish Capital Gains Tax for the same people. Saying
"The Policy outlined in this document will:
abolish Corporation Tax for 90% of UK companies
reduce the deficit faster than predicted by the OBR
expand employment faster than predicted by the OBR
increase competition and challenge Cartel Capitalism
let millions of people grow tall.
These millions of individuals will enjoy:
the opportunity to say “I am the captain of my ship”
more money
more freedom
the first step on The Road from Serfdom.
The nation as a whole will benefit from:
a change in culture as big as “Own your own Home” in the 1980s
greater economic growth and lower unemployment than forecast by the OBR
more competitive market places
more freedom and independence from Big Government and Big Companies."
I have been pushing for CT cuts since before I started this blog in 2004. Basically following the example of Ireland where they cut CT, in a series of steps to 12.5%, and reduced regulation, particularly on housebuilding and achieved a 7% average growth rate.
So what do I think of Saatchi's slightly different proposal? It is an improvement. His is costed at £10.5 bn. Mine of cutting all CT by slightly more than half would cost just over a billion more. Not much difference. However by concentrating it all on smaller companies he gets some advantages - smaller companies provide more employment growth; smaller companies tend to be more innovative, until they grow into bigger companies; smaller companies have more difficulty borrowing so profits are more important for expansion.
He also has the advantage of being able to run it through an economic model. Lets take advantage of that.
The conclusion is that this £10.5 bn cut would increase growth by about 0.8%, though not in the first year because the investment has to work through. That means that by the end of a 5 year Parliament that growth would have replaced all that tax cut. Saatchi says that this 0.8% estimate is "conservative" and I agree. Indeed that is 1 of 3 reasons I believe the position is much better than he offers:
1 - Irish growth was 7% - 4.5% better than ours. Even if we assume more than half was due to the regulatory cuts (not the common feeling but probably true) and that, because Ireland is so much smaller than us, having lower taxes opened them up to proportionately more investment than us we still come out with the growth potential being around twice the 0.8% given. Also Irish growth did not take a year to take off and this is reasonable if investors see an improved investment opportunity - they will not wait, but start investing immediately, if they can.
2 - Increased national debt is only a problem in relation to the size of the economy. If we have growth of an extra 0.8% in the economy, debt can increase the same without making payment more difficult. Indeed if the size of government is unaltered there is actually proportionately more uncommitted money in the economy, though this is only a marginal effect.
Our current national debt is £1.4 trillion so 0.8% is £11.2 bn, just slightly above initial and maximum borrowing.
3 - If you have a growing economy you need to increase the money supply to keep prices stable. Money in UK circulation is rather larger than 1 year's gdp. In fact it was £2,200 bn in 2010 - presumably about £2,400 bn now. So an extra unexpected 0.8% growth means we can and should print £19 billion extra.
--------------------
This is not estimating conservatively but it is the realistic best estimate and if we don't do it there is no reason to believe reality will be conservative either.
So clearly we should go with this asap.
I would go further - promise that the take on CT and other business taxes will not be allowed to rise - if the economy grows, as it will, increasing the tax take, we will raise the level at which CT comes in (and when it is fully abolished, business rated and other such taxes). This means investors can look forward to a stable profitable investment, which is all they need.
--------------------
But I would like to see this as merely the start.
The formula for economic growth is: Economic Freedom + Cheap Energy
Low business tax is only part, the smaller part, of economic freedom. The greater part is not having parasitic state regulation. At least tax money goes back into the economy, albeit in less efficient ways and excluding the cost of government taxing and returning it. Wealth destroyed by regulation, for example 98% of the cost of electricity, is gone forever.
So we should should cut regulations wherever possible. As a minor effect that also cuts government spending a bit - it costs government all of 1/20th, to regulate, of what it costs the productive economy to be regulated.
75% of housing cost is regulatory - 34% X 75% = 25.5%
(I assume this includes heating it)
The EU regulations come to another 5%
(assuming the cost is equally borne by the people as by the government sector which is an optimistic assumption)
Remaining portion of income that goes to the value of what we actually choose
That 69.5% is, in turn reduced proportionately by all the other factors. Take off commercial building costs (est 2.5%), electricity charges through the rest of the economy (est 2%),accountancy (7.5%), child care (est 2.5%), assorted other (est 10%)
Therefore percentage of income we nominally get to spend which we actually get in our pockets & spent on the product not the surrounding regulation
But if the regulatory part of economic freedom costs us more than the tax part the other side of the equation, cheap energy has even more potential. Roger Helmer has written of the advantages of letting decisions on electricity be made on economic not ideological grounds.
The correlation between growth in energy use and in gdp is undisputable.

It has been calculated and indeed is undisputed that app 98% of the cost of producing electricity here is governmental parasitism.
Nuclear is currently 40% of the average cost of our power basket.
China is building at 0.27 our costs.
Because China is building in three years and us in ten we have seven years foregone income while paying interest – assuming the normal 10% return that is 1.10^7 = 1.95
Assume China is not entirely without state parasitism – say 10%
VAT and carbon levies 20%
How much could cost be reduced if it was allowed to mass produce reactors - three fold seems a conservative estimate.
60% X 0.27 X 1/1.95 X 90% X 1/1.20% X 1/3 = 0.0208 or 2.08% of current costs.
97.92% parasitism.
Major reductions, not quite as major, could be done by allowing the market to produce shale gas. Any reduction on electricity costs, not just one as major as this, if the laws of supply and demand work, would produce a many fold increase in energy use and therefore a many fold increase in gdp.
Indeed I have previously proposed a 24 point programme to the world's fastest growth, which includes my original CT cutting proposal, and it would work. Theoretically we might expect most of the proposals to increase growth by about an average of 2% a year, Some more, some less.
In practice we might be limited to a bit above the 20% growth Guandong province in China managed for years. Certainly the theoretical maximum, if we make growth our "Number one priority" (Scottish labour leader Jack McConnell promising at 2 elections - he knew what people want even if he lied about giving it) cannot be lower than the actually achieved maximum.
=================================
Saatchi's proposal is a very good one, well thought out and verified. It is a small fraction of our potential.
"The Policy outlined in this document will:
abolish Corporation Tax for 90% of UK companies
reduce the deficit faster than predicted by the OBR
expand employment faster than predicted by the OBR
increase competition and challenge Cartel Capitalism
let millions of people grow tall.
These millions of individuals will enjoy:
the opportunity to say “I am the captain of my ship”
more money
more freedom
the first step on The Road from Serfdom.
The nation as a whole will benefit from:
a change in culture as big as “Own your own Home” in the 1980s
greater economic growth and lower unemployment than forecast by the OBR
more competitive market places
more freedom and independence from Big Government and Big Companies."
I have been pushing for CT cuts since before I started this blog in 2004. Basically following the example of Ireland where they cut CT, in a series of steps to 12.5%, and reduced regulation, particularly on housebuilding and achieved a 7% average growth rate.
So what do I think of Saatchi's slightly different proposal? It is an improvement. His is costed at £10.5 bn. Mine of cutting all CT by slightly more than half would cost just over a billion more. Not much difference. However by concentrating it all on smaller companies he gets some advantages - smaller companies provide more employment growth; smaller companies tend to be more innovative, until they grow into bigger companies; smaller companies have more difficulty borrowing so profits are more important for expansion.
He also has the advantage of being able to run it through an economic model. Lets take advantage of that.
The conclusion is that this £10.5 bn cut would increase growth by about 0.8%, though not in the first year because the investment has to work through. That means that by the end of a 5 year Parliament that growth would have replaced all that tax cut. Saatchi says that this 0.8% estimate is "conservative" and I agree. Indeed that is 1 of 3 reasons I believe the position is much better than he offers:
1 - Irish growth was 7% - 4.5% better than ours. Even if we assume more than half was due to the regulatory cuts (not the common feeling but probably true) and that, because Ireland is so much smaller than us, having lower taxes opened them up to proportionately more investment than us we still come out with the growth potential being around twice the 0.8% given. Also Irish growth did not take a year to take off and this is reasonable if investors see an improved investment opportunity - they will not wait, but start investing immediately, if they can.
2 - Increased national debt is only a problem in relation to the size of the economy. If we have growth of an extra 0.8% in the economy, debt can increase the same without making payment more difficult. Indeed if the size of government is unaltered there is actually proportionately more uncommitted money in the economy, though this is only a marginal effect.
Our current national debt is £1.4 trillion so 0.8% is £11.2 bn, just slightly above initial and maximum borrowing.
3 - If you have a growing economy you need to increase the money supply to keep prices stable. Money in UK circulation is rather larger than 1 year's gdp. In fact it was £2,200 bn in 2010 - presumably about £2,400 bn now. So an extra unexpected 0.8% growth means we can and should print £19 billion extra.
--------------------
This is not estimating conservatively but it is the realistic best estimate and if we don't do it there is no reason to believe reality will be conservative either.
So clearly we should go with this asap.
I would go further - promise that the take on CT and other business taxes will not be allowed to rise - if the economy grows, as it will, increasing the tax take, we will raise the level at which CT comes in (and when it is fully abolished, business rated and other such taxes). This means investors can look forward to a stable profitable investment, which is all they need.
--------------------
But I would like to see this as merely the start.
The formula for economic growth is: Economic Freedom + Cheap Energy
Low business tax is only part, the smaller part, of economic freedom. The greater part is not having parasitic state regulation. At least tax money goes back into the economy, albeit in less efficient ways and excluding the cost of government taxing and returning it. Wealth destroyed by regulation, for example 98% of the cost of electricity, is gone forever.
So we should should cut regulations wherever possible. As a minor effect that also cuts government spending a bit - it costs government all of 1/20th, to regulate, of what it costs the productive economy to be regulated.
75% of housing cost is regulatory - 34% X 75% = 25.5%
(I assume this includes heating it)
The EU regulations come to another 5%
(assuming the cost is equally borne by the people as by the government sector which is an optimistic assumption)
Remaining portion of income that goes to the value of what we actually choose
100% - 25.5% - 5% =69.5%
That 69.5% is, in turn reduced proportionately by all the other factors. Take off commercial building costs (est 2.5%), electricity charges through the rest of the economy (est 2%),accountancy (7.5%), child care (est 2.5%), assorted other (est 10%)
Total 24.5%
Therefore percentage of income we nominally get to spend which we actually get in our pockets & spent on the product not the surrounding regulation
69.5% X (100% - 24.5% = 52.5%
But if the regulatory part of economic freedom costs us more than the tax part the other side of the equation, cheap energy has even more potential. Roger Helmer has written of the advantages of letting decisions on electricity be made on economic not ideological grounds.
The correlation between growth in energy use and in gdp is undisputable.

It has been calculated and indeed is undisputed that app 98% of the cost of producing electricity here is governmental parasitism.
Nuclear is currently 40% of the average cost of our power basket.
China is building at 0.27 our costs.
Because China is building in three years and us in ten we have seven years foregone income while paying interest – assuming the normal 10% return that is 1.10^7 = 1.95
Assume China is not entirely without state parasitism – say 10%
VAT and carbon levies 20%
How much could cost be reduced if it was allowed to mass produce reactors - three fold seems a conservative estimate.
60% X 0.27 X 1/1.95 X 90% X 1/1.20% X 1/3 = 0.0208 or 2.08% of current costs.
97.92% parasitism.
Major reductions, not quite as major, could be done by allowing the market to produce shale gas. Any reduction on electricity costs, not just one as major as this, if the laws of supply and demand work, would produce a many fold increase in energy use and therefore a many fold increase in gdp.
Indeed I have previously proposed a 24 point programme to the world's fastest growth, which includes my original CT cutting proposal, and it would work. Theoretically we might expect most of the proposals to increase growth by about an average of 2% a year, Some more, some less.
In practice we might be limited to a bit above the 20% growth Guandong province in China managed for years. Certainly the theoretical maximum, if we make growth our "Number one priority" (Scottish labour leader Jack McConnell promising at 2 elections - he knew what people want even if he lied about giving it) cannot be lower than the actually achieved maximum.
=================================
Saatchi's proposal is a very good one, well thought out and verified. It is a small fraction of our potential.
Labels: British politics, economics, UKIP, UKIP Policy papers
Comments:
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تعتبر شركة الحورس من أحسن الشركات بالمملكة العربية السعودية فى مجال التنظيف و أفضلهم على الاطلاق فنحن نسعى دوما للحفاظ على صدارة شركات النظافة و ذلك بتطوير الأفراد و المعدات و المواد المستخدمة لضمان تقديم أفضل خدمة ممكنة لعملائنا الكرام كما نوضح لك مدى جمال و نظافة المظهر الطبيعي للمكان و من حيث ياتيك اطمئنان ليتم التاكيد من مصداقية الخدمات المقدمة فتعامل معنا لكى تحصل على افضل الخدمات لاتمام عملية النظافة و بأسعار مناسبة للجميع كما نقدم العديد من خدمات التنظيف للبيوت والفلل والقصور والشقق فنحن نقدم أرخص خدمات التنظيف كما نضمن لك الراحة و الامان فى بيتك فنحن نقوم بازالة الروائح من المنزل و اضافة رائحة منعشة و متجددة للمكان باستخدام افضل المعطرات و المطهرات كما نعمل على تنظيف و تطهير الحمامات و المطابخ كما نعمل على تنظيف و ازالة الغبار من داخل المنزل و خارجه كما نقوم بجلى البلاط و تلميعه و تنظيف النوافذ و الابواب و غسل الستائر و تنظيف الواجهات الزجاجية والحجرية و تلميع الارضيات و نظافة الموكيت و السجاد مع التعطير و كل ما يلزم لتنظيف و تطهير المنزل كما نقوم بتنظيف المجالس بكل انواعها من الارضية و العلوية حيث أن مجالسنا هى المكان المفضل دائما فى المنزل
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شركتنا شركة الشرق الاوسط شركة نقل اثاث بابها وهي مميزة دائما عن غيرها وذلك لأنها تمتلك أفضل فريق عمل مدرب ومضمون ومتدرب علي اعلي مستوي وغير ذلك فشركتنا تتميز أيضا بأنها تعمل علي استخدام أفضل المعدات واحدث الأدوات وأيضا تتميز شركتنا بالحرص علي استخدام أجود المواد في مواد التي تستخدم في التغليف من الورق و الكرتون والبلاستيك والقماش وأيا الإسفنج وذلك مما يضمن عدم تجريح شركة نقل اثاث بحائل أي كم قطع الأثاث وذلك مهما كان نوعها ومهما كانت حساسيتها أيضا وأيضا مهما طالت مسافة نقلها وذلك ما يميز شركة نقل عفش بحائل وأيضا شركتنا تتميز أيضا بأنها تمتلك أفضل وسائل النقل المميزة وذلك بتميز الشركة بأنها تمتلك احدث أنواع سيارات نقل الأثاث التي تكون مجهزة لهذا الغرض والتي أيضا تضمن لكم النقل والوصول للمكان في أسرع وقت ولان شركتنا تعلم جيدا قيمة الأثاث وانه لا غني عنه بشكل كبير في كافة البيوت لذلك نهتم جيدا بالمحافظة عليه كما أن شركتنا شركة نقل اثاث بنجران تتميز أيضا بان هي من الشركات المميزة التي تهتم برأي العملاء دائما وتعمل دائما في السعي علي إرضاء جميع عملائها فجميعنا نعلم أن هذا التميز يكون ليس موجود في باقي الشركات ويعتبر من أهم ما يميز الشركة فالعمل علي الاهتمام دائما برئي العملاء هو يعتبر بناء أساسي في نجاح أي شركة وأيضا شركتنا شركة نقل شركة الشرق الاوسط شركة تنظيف بخميس مشيط تتميز بأنها تعمل دائما بالتواصل السريع وأيضا تقوم بتقديم خدمات جميع عملائها بالسرعة وبالرغم من السرعة ألي أن الشركة تهتم بجميع التفاصيل وبدقة عالية وبتقديم جميع الخدمات بأسرع وقت وبخدماته كاملا وهذا ما يميز شركتنا عن غيرها فشركة نقل الأثاث تتميز عن الكثير من الشركات ومما وضحنا إليكم بعض مميزاتها فشركتنا شركة تنظيف بمحايل عسير تقدم لكم الخدمات المتعددة وذلك في عملية نقل الأثاث أو العفش فشركتنا تعتبر من رواد في نقل العفش فالشركة تقدم خدمة خدمة التنظيف شركة تنظيف ببيشة لجميع عملائها خدمات علي اعلي مستوي من الجودة العالية وذلك من خلال استخدام أجود وأفضل الأدوات والتي أيضا تعمل شركة نقل الأثاث علي تقديم جميع الخدمات الكاملة والمميزة والتي تكون ذات الكفاءة العالية كل هذا معنا فى شركة تنظيف منازل بنجران التى تعتبر من اهم مايميزنا فى منطثة نجران بشهاده عملائنا
Not all are true. Everyone has their own way of thinking but I think they have to reconsider. I like to argue for the most accurate results.
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بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم عميلنا العزيز نحن نقدم افضل خدمات تنظيف المجالس والشقق بافضل انواع
التنظيفات المشهود لها عالميا
شركة تنظيف مجالس بالطائف
شركة تنظيف مجالس بجازان
شركة تنظيف مجالس بحائل
ونحن فى خماتكم 24 ساعة على مدار الشهر
Do not suffer after the day with our company, the Knights of Dammam, where our company provides the best home services at all and we have a section of cleaning and control and sewerage and insulation, as well as we have a special section of anti-termites and we have a special cleaning of reservoirs, and our shop cleaning boards and the best cleaning and cleaning materials Modern machines.
Home cleaning company in Dammam
Transport company in Dammam
House cleaning company Babha
Taslik sewer company in Dammam
Roof Insulation Company in Dammam
An insect control company in Dammam
Company for the control of white ants in Dammam
Company cleaning boards and Knab Dammam
Home cleaning company in Dammam
Transport company in Dammam
House cleaning company Babha
Taslik sewer company in Dammam
Roof Insulation Company in Dammam
An insect control company in Dammam
Company for the control of white ants in Dammam
Company cleaning boards and Knab Dammam
افضل شركه تنظيف مسابح بالرياض وافضل وسائل التنظيف تواصلو معنا نصلكم اينما كنتم
تنظيف مسابح بالرياض
تنظيف المسابح مهم حدا فى حياتنا لما لها من اهميه كبيره جدا فى حياتنا فقط كل ما عليكم الاتصال والتواصل مع شركه زين للتخلص من اى شوائف ومن اى مخالفات فى المسبح تمتلك شركتنا افضل واعلى وسائل التنظيف وافضل العماله المدربه على اعلى مستوى كما ان الشركه تعرص خصومات هائله لعملائنا الكرم
تنظيف مسابح
تنظيف مسابح بالرياض
تنظيف المسابح مهم حدا فى حياتنا لما لها من اهميه كبيره جدا فى حياتنا فقط كل ما عليكم الاتصال والتواصل مع شركه زين للتخلص من اى شوائف ومن اى مخالفات فى المسبح تمتلك شركتنا افضل واعلى وسائل التنظيف وافضل العماله المدربه على اعلى مستوى كما ان الشركه تعرص خصومات هائله لعملائنا الكرم
تنظيف مسابح
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شركة تركيب اثاث ايكيا بالرياض
شركة تركيب ستائر بالرياض
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تركيب وفك المطابخ بالرياض
توفر شركتنا خدمة تركيب كاملة لغرف النوم، حيث سيهتم خبراؤنا بكل شيء، بما في ذلك جميع الجوانب المعقدة لتركيب غرفة النوم.
من خلال اختيار استخدام خدمة تركيب غرفة النوم لدينا، يمكنك الحصول على راحة البال مع العلم أنه سيتم تركيب غرفة النوم الخاصة بك وفقا لأعلى المعايير الممكنة من قبل العمال المتخصصين والمؤهلين، كما أن خدمة التركيب الكاملة الخاصة بنا تسمح لك بالاسترخاءبينما يعتني تجارنا بإجراءات التركيب الكاملة لغرفة نوم أحلامك المجهزة بأقل قدر من الإزعاج لك ولعائلتك
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شركة تركيب ستائر بالرياض
شركة تنظيف مكيفات بالرياض
شركة تركيب غرف نوم بالرياض
شركة تركيب باركية بالرياض
شركة تركيب عفش بالرياض
تركيب وفك المطابخ بالرياض
توفر شركتنا خدمة تركيب كاملة لغرف النوم، حيث سيهتم خبراؤنا بكل شيء، بما في ذلك جميع الجوانب المعقدة لتركيب غرفة النوم.
من خلال اختيار استخدام خدمة تركيب غرفة النوم لدينا، يمكنك الحصول على راحة البال مع العلم أنه سيتم تركيب غرفة النوم الخاصة بك وفقا لأعلى المعايير الممكنة من قبل العمال المتخصصين والمؤهلين، كما أن خدمة التركيب الكاملة الخاصة بنا تسمح لك بالاسترخاءبينما يعتني تجارنا بإجراءات التركيب الكاملة لغرفة نوم أحلامك المجهزة بأقل قدر من الإزعاج لك ولعائلتك
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