Thursday, January 17, 2013
Cameron's Speech - If He Promises An EU Referendum - Bit Only After He Is Gone?
Favid Cameron is about to give a, heavily pre-leaked, speech in which he makes a cast iron promise of a referendum on EU membership as soon as possible. As soon as possible being 2018, following 5 years of renegotiation,. If the people vote to quit there would then be an unspecified, but quite likely as long as 5 years, period of disentangling.
Of course right now it looks unlikely that Cameron will have any role in government in 2018, let alone around 2023.
But, he is going to insist, this is as fast as it can be done.
Lets look at something that sets a different precedent.
nationalists defeated re-branded former Communist parties in Slovenia, Croatia & Bosnia & Hercegovina on 8 April 1990
Slovenia - In the Slovenian independence referendum, 1990, held on 23 December 1990, a vast majority of residents voted for independence. 88.5% of all electors (94.8% of those participating) voted for independence – which was declared on 25 June 1991
Croatia - In the Croatian independence referendum held on 2 May 1991, 93.24% voted for independence. On 19 May 1991, the second round of the referendum on the structure of the Yugoslav federation was held in Croatia. The phrasing of the question did not explicitly inquire as to whether one was in favor of secession or not. The referendum asked the voter if he or she was in favor of Croatia being "able to enter into an alliance of sovereign states with other republics (in accordance with the proposal of the republics of Croatia and Slovenia for solving the state crisis in the SFRY)?". 83.56% of the voters turned out, with Croatian Serbs largely boycotting the referendum. Of these, 94.17% (78.69% of the total voting population) voted "in favor" of the proposal, while 1.2% of those who voted were "opposed". Finally, the independence of Croatia was declared on 25 June 1991.
Bosnia & H -in February–March 1992, the government itself held a national referendum on Bosnian independence from Yugoslavia. In the Bosnia and Herzegovina independence referendum, 1992, held on 29 February and 1 March 1992, 92.7% voted for independence. That referendum was in turn declared contrary to the BiH and Federal constitution by the federal Constitution court and the newly established Bosnian Serb government; it was also largely boycotted by the Bosnian Serbs. The turnout was somewhere between 64–67% and 98% of the voters voted for independence. .... declared its independence on 3 March
In January 1992, while the mediation efforts were ongoing, the European Community (now the European Union), after considerable internal debate, decided to recognize Croatia and Slovenia's independence. They deferred action on recognizing Bosnia-Herzegovina pending a referendum to determine public support for independence...
In April 1992, the EU recognized Bosnia
Promises of EU "recognition" and eventual membership undoubtedly encouraged all of them to go for secession. Indeed Bosnia was virtually dregooned into it by a promise of such support plus a warning that it would not be available if they didn't ttake this once time only today offer. So 13 months from the elections in S and C to the declaration of independence, another 6 months for EU recognition. Even more spectacularly - 6 months in S, 1 months in C & 2 days in B&H between the referendum and independence declared. Note that this was not in a confederation of sovereign states, as the EU is, but a union forming 1 sovereugn state, internationally trcognised as a UN member and to which all EU members had undertaken in the Helsinki Treaty, to "take no action against the territorial integrity or unity" of. Legally a far far stronger union than the EU. So anybody who says the EU referendum has to be delayed for more than 6 months from now or that separation could not come about within a month, even within 2 days, thereafter is clealry not to be trusted to tell the truth on any other subject either.