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Wednesday, January 04, 2012

Predictions for 2012

 No spectacular changes of direction. Another good year for humanity and bad one for western civilisation. This trend is not permanently sustainable - something will give - but I think the political decline has some space left to run. Cheerful stuff underlined.


We will continue to underperform the UK recession. All the main parties in Holyrood will continue to, wrongly, blame Westminster rather than themselves for this. Electricity prices will continue their rise. Some Westminster politician will say that if Scotland becomes independent there will be no requirement to buy expensive electricity from us if cheaper gas is available - this will be denounced as speculation. At first, under their new leader, Conservative support will fall. However after that support for all the main parties will fall in tandem which will merely show as contempt for all Scottish politicians. Those politicians will continue to only discuss "independence" avoiding any real debate.


The policitaly maintained recession will be maintained. Every MP & MSP will know how to get out of recession in days but only a few "right wing" (according to the BBC) Tories will suggest doing so.


The Euro will be retained in name but in fact for Greece, Italy, Spain & Portugal it will become a separate currency, just as the Swiss and French Francs are different. This will not cause catastrophe but the EU will maintain its recession. One of the Scandinavian countries may decide to hold a referendum on leaving. Anti-EU parties will increase their vote in virtually all members with elections.


A progressive (in the sense of supporting progress) candidate will be adopted by the Republicans, probably Gingrich. The campaign will be as dirty as any in US history, with the media and Democrats producing new or revamped scandal stories daily, at least 99% of which will have nothing both new and true in them. Nonetheless Obama will lose, though his last 2 months, after losing, will be nasty. What happens after that, though good, will be for 2013.

World Economy

The world economy may slow slightly but will continue to grow at 4% or more and China's at 8% or more.

World Politics

South Korea will work hand in glove with China over North Korea. Their objectives will be, in order, to prevent disorder and millions of refugees; to prevent a war; to open up NK. A 3 sided war of secession will break out in Iraq with Turkey, Iran and Saudi each intervening to stop their chosen enemies winning. There will be considerable western supported terrorism in Syria, armed stand-offs in Libya and anti-Christian pogroms in Egypt. Pakistani terrorist will carry out atrocities in India and Pakistan


SpaceX's commercial spaceship will dock in February with the ISS. By the end of the year commercial space flights will be becoming regular and we will be seeing the start of a major investment boom in space.The EU will be trying to get agreement with the rest of the world to stop it and failing.

Catastrophic global warming will never be referred to and the scare story will largely be about other potential unknown effects of CO2 rising. Some other eco-scare will be being promoted - perhaps species extinction.

World oil/gas production and reserves will rise rapidly. There will be continued technological progress in virtually all scientific fields. There will be uncertainty about whether the Higgs Boson has been discovered and about whether commercial exploitation of low energy nuclear reactions is practical but not about their existence.

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