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Tuesday, May 20, 2014

We Should Be 4 Times Better Off

    This graph was put up by Tim Worstall from an article in the New Yorker.

   He was making a point about rates of return being higher when property rights are insecure, as they once were, and are looking like becoming again.

   However I was interested in the yellow line which fits in with stuff I have been saying before about growth in western countries having peaked in 1959 and that, by all the normal rules of statistics we should expect such curves to rise at an increasing rate, as this did till the 1950s and then the rate of growth to tale off. If that yellow curve had continued at the rate of acceleration form 1950-2012 as up to 1950 we would have an average growth rate of 7-8% now.

     The further decline in growth after 2012 - is obviously not actual but only what the miserabilist who did it is extrapolating. Nonetheless valuable since it shows what is intended if we allow it.

    When you have different research coming to similar endpoints you can be fairly sure you are onto something. In this case that it is only because of the Luddism, primarily but not exclusively in suppressing the very cheap electricity we should all have now, and the growing degree of state regulatory parasitism that is responsible. Technologically we could have that 7-8% annual growth at any time. Actually probably quite a bit more for some years as we catch up on using technology that has been suppressed. 60 years of growth averaging 3.5% when we could have had 6% means the entire planet could have been 4 times better off by now.

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