Sunday, January 06, 2013
UKIP 16%, Conservatives 29% Poll - Can We Get a 7% Swing?
The poll shows Labour on 38 per cent, the Tories on 29, UKIP with 16 and the Lib Dems on 11. Had UKIP remained at 3 per cent, the figures would be enough to give Mr Miliband a wafer-thin Commons majority of ten. However, the haemorrhage of Tory votes to UKIP turns it into a landslide majority of 94.
I said this on a comment on Daniel Hannan's blog, the commenter I was debating having described Nigel farage as our "achilles heel" having acknowledged that on policy we are far ahead of everybody else:
"Whatever your opinion of Farage I think it is difficult to say he is an Achilles heel and less fitted to be be PM when the alternatives are Cameron. Miliband II & Clegg.
Machaivelli said that the way he judged a "prince" who he did not know was by their advisors. Good leaders chose good ministers & bad ones chose lackeys. By that standard Farage is very good - which I submit, is partly why we have policies which are clearly better than our opponents on most issues.
The problem with Michael Howard's, & David Cameron's, policy on cutting mass imigration is not that it was unpopular but that the electors did not believe it to be true. In that they were quite right since membership of the EU means we cannot prevent mass immigration.
I doubt if UKIP will draw quite as strongly from Labour voters as Tory so a 4 way split would have some effect. However what is clear is that an alliance between UKIP and the Tories, which had the confidence of UKIP voters (& only if it did) would have a clear edge.
The latest Mail poll showing us on 16% & the Tories on 29% suggests that if the Tories lose another 7% to us we will be outpolling them (less if we also continue picking up Lab/Lib supporters) at which point the "splitter" argument will move the other way & we could see a melt down of the Tory party."
A 7% swing to UKIP seems much more likely now than it was a year ago when UKIP were polling around 9%.
Another thing worth noting is the LudDims on 11%. We are now sufficiently far ahead of them to be able to look on this relatively good showing with equanimity. It may be that this means they have gained some popularity but I think it is actually a sign that most people think Labour unfit to trust with running the country. In which case if they do get in, on about 1/3rd of the vote, it will be because Cameron prefers a Labour victory (continuing the continuity brown policies of the previous government) to a UKIP/Conservative one (committed to classic liberal principles)and his party don't have the balls to get rid of him.
And when will the BBC try to be 1% balanced in their coverge (ie giving us 0.55% as much supportive coverage as Cameron) and not more than 99% a corrupt, totalitarian, fascist propaganda organisation?