Friday, May 25, 2012
This is the comment I put up in reply.
This would almost automatically mean a lot of Tories keeping their seats and relatively few UKIPers. The corollary of that, with UKIP now reaching 46% of the declining Conservative support in the polls, would have to mean UKIP dominating policy.EU Referendum also expresses his opinion, with an interesting tale which paints Hannan as not entirely trustworthy. I also put a comment there to the effect that UKIP could not just act as drain on the Tory vote and that we must be prepared to negotiate if a serious offer is on the table.
Personally I think that if the party members were offered a deal whereby they supported a fairly run referendum; an enquiry into whether the BBC have vitiated their Charter duty of "balance" by giving only 1/40th as much coverage to UKIP, per vote, as to the "lefty" Greens; an end to the catastrophic global warming fraud and all the attendant carbon nonsense; a free market in energy with a level regulatory playing field; cutting back the state; and all the pointless and damaging regulations and thus among for at least the average growth rate of the rest of the world (6%) then the large majority of Tory activists would jump at it.
In fact I think the majority of Tory activists would like that simply for its own sake, it is just that "their leaders" don't.
I also happen to think that is a programme which a large majority of the British public would go for which is the real point.
Since such a pact would require a vote of all the UKIP members it would be very strange & suspicious if the Tories were not to poll their own members over it too. I personally think the Tory party members would jump at a pact involving a fairly conducted EU referendum, no more subsidy of catastrophic warming lies, no windmill subsidies, the government to examine whether the BBC, by giving 40 times more coverage oer vote to the Greens as to UKIP, cutting the deficit by firing cutting government shale gas and nuclear being allowed & consequently a fast growing economy.
Of course it is possible, even likely, that Cameron's successor would not be willing to make a deal like that, even with UKIP's poll rating being 46% of the Tories own (recent Mail poll) but if so it would be obvious which party it was that was denying the Tories a victory.
Another point is that whatever Mr Hannan may be spinning this government has 3 years to run. And it is going to be run with them beside the LibDems. The Tories can't really negotiate with another partner when they are still in a marriage. There is therefore no hurry whatsoever.
However there are some things that would be needed as a sign that the Conservatives were dealing from the top of the deck & should be a precondition for serious discussion..
- I can't see any way that the sort of major changes, including giving up the warming scam could be done with Cameron in charge. Also Cameron is a liar and has publicly called us fascists
- The examination of the bias of the state broadcaster. If the Conservatives are even half way sincere the fact that the BBC give 40 times more coverage per vote to the greens as to UKIP must be anathema to them. While I have said the Greens are a wholly reactionary movement they are accepted as being part of the "left". So on purely tactical terms the Conservatives should do something about this obvious bias which enhances the "left".
- Any pact must pass a vote of Conservative party members. If it did that the leadership would be committed. If they refuse to do so they can only be leaving themselves a way to break their word as soon as the election is over (as all the approved parties did after promising a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty).
The Tea Party has rejuvenated the republicans because the primary system gives them a chance to reform within the party system. Come the next election it is likely that the USA will have joined the fast growing warming sceptic world consensus leaving only the EU behind. If the Conservative leadership decide they will not change they will be eclipsed but, unless UKIP eclipse them before the run up to the next election (not that unlikely the way the polls are going) they might doom the country to another 5 years of Labour incompetence.