Thursday, March 29, 2012
Minor stories - OECD says we have slipped back into recession.
The OECD's outlook is gloomier than the forecasts of the Government and many economists, who expect the UK economy to return to growth in the first quarter of 2012, meaning a double-dip recession will be avoided.So we are in recession and the very best might be that we keep bobbing along at around zero. And why would that be.
Because of another piece of below the headlines news which is far more important than the any of the Westminster gossip and because there is an almost perfect correlation between energy use and GDP.
March 29 (Reuters) - German utilities E.ON and RWE have pulled out of a 15 billion pound ($23.78 billion) plan to build new nuclear power stations in Britain, throwing into doubt the UK government's push for a new fleet of nuclear plants by 2025.Apparently the government has said they are "disappointed" by this decision. Typical attempt to shift the blame. The sole reason they are going; indeed the sole reason they aren't already building; indeed the sole reason enough reactors to keep the economy growing fast haven't been completed long ago is because of the government.
The companies said Germany's sudden decision to phase out nuclear power, the high running costs of their Horizon joint venture and the long lead times required for nuclear plants resulted in the decision to sell the venture.
"A strategic decision has therefore been made by both RWE and E.ON that they will not develop new nuclear power projects in the UK through the Horizon joint venture," the companies said in a statement, confirming what sources close to the negotiations had earlier told Reuters.
The overwhelming balance of costs in the nuclear industry is government parasitism. At £800 million a unit the £15 bn here would have paid for 19 GW of power. Add in the £14 bn the French recently paid for Britain's generators, not for the generator's themselves but for the fact that the ground they stand on is the only place new generators will be allowed and that would have made 36 gigawatts - short but not far short of all our current capacity.
More than enough to stop the lights going out if the parasites wanted it. More than enough to end most of the 25,000 annual excess winter deaths. More than enough to not only get us out of recession but into fast growth at least matching China's Let no MP not willing to denounce his party for this treason against the British people ever claim to care about the country's wellbeing.
93% of electricity costs are political theft. Without that there is no question that these companies would be building and making money. No honest politician can deny that nuclear is easily the safest and least environmentally intrusive way of generating power. In which case no honest politician can claim that regulations which increase prices thus:
Some plants completed in the late 1980s have cost as much as $5 billion, 30 times what they cost 15 years earlier. Inflation, of course, has played a role, but the consumer price index increased only by a factor of 2.2 between 1973 and 1983, and by just 18% from 1983 to 1988.& in fact this regulatory parasitism continues. From the above the regulatory increase between 1973 and 1983 was (30/2.2) 13.6 times. Extrapolating that over 39 years to 2012 would make 26,353 times or only 0.004% of the cost of reactors would be the original engineering and legitimate safety costs. I hope the reality is that the growth in parasitism slowed significantly but the basics are clear.
Some plants completed in the late 1980s have cost as much as $5 billion, 30 times what they cost 15 years earlier. Inflation, of course, has played a role, but the consumer price index increased only by a factor of 2.2 between 1973 and 1983, and by just 18% from 1983 to 1988.On that basis we have a 13.6 fold increase in costs over those 10 years. So in the 39 years between 1979 and 2012 it would be 26,351 times or that the real engineering and legitimate safety cost of nuclear would be 0.004% of the total. It is possible that the trend has slowed somewhat since 1983.