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Friday, June 27, 2014

CAGW Not A Scientific But A Political Issue

Mike Haseler has written on his blog of the reasons why the global warming fraud grew. I think this is interesting enough to put up a long answer but that it must be long enough to post here as well. His full post is here and well worth it. My answers in italics. His assessment of the factors causing growth of the CAGW fraud and opposition is:

  • Climatology was a new discipline, where results took decades to come in. It had had very few of its ideas tested and had not the experience of other subjects of finding cherished theories were eventually disproven. So this new subject not only did not have an established culture, but the culture that was developing did not have the caution that comes from having established theories overturned by the evidence. - Though new, and thus also lacking good long term records, it is worth noting that Hubert Lamb, who founded the CRU, before his retiral, never believed the warming scare.. Climatology was not doing badly till the politicians came along, poured money into it and appointed  their own creatures. My opinion is that the reason "climate science", "social science" and "the science of economics" aren't science is because promotion is determined by what government wants and government wants results that support them rather than ones which are accurate. If promotion in astronomy were political it wouldn't be a science now either.
  • The manned space flights and lunar landings, were one of the first truly global events and created an entirely new perspective for humanity: that of us looking down on our planet as a single entity - The effect of the lunar flights and pictures of Earth were important but the effect of "environmental" scares such as DDT and the Linear No Threshold nuclear radiation one predate the Moon landings. LNT seems to have been faked in 1945. The growth rate in developed countries peaked in 1958/9 which I suggest can only be caused by government/eco parasitism at that point surpassing the increasing rate of technology growth. 
  • Global communication networks meant that the peoples of earth were no longer isolated from each other. - Agreed. perhaps the most scary thing is how close we are to a de facto world government since such a thing would mean there is no outside competition to keep government efficient and non-parasitic.
  • The internet strengthened that sense of global “unity”, but also very importantly, it bypassed traditional communication networks through the press and TV. - The internet was minor in the 1980s when CAGW was made the official "Pravda". It has been irreplaceable un the rise of scepticism as a movement.
  • As a result of the global perspective and globalisation of industry, Global environmental groups grew up, particularly aimed at air pollution and nuclear fears. - As the Indians have demonstrated the importance of western "N"GOs and established wealthy individuals (eg the Club of Rome founders and promoters has been extensive worldwide.
  • But by the late 1990s, air pollution was already being effectively tackled, and the end of the Berlin wall brought an end to the immediate fear of nuclear disaster. As such environmental groups were bereft of any serious threat on which to focus. - Not just "environmental" groups. Here I would like to direct anybody who hasn't read it to Michael Crichton's State of Fear, which, while masquerading as a thriller is a surgical dissection of not just the "environmental" movement but the carious government promoted campaigns designed to keep us scared and obedient. In particular the chapter Oct 13 9.33AM page 536 in the UK edition is simply a lecture on the history of the media promotion of scares - including how it was provably ramped up several fold  within days of the fall of the Berlin Wall when a (possibly) real scare was no longer available. It was not just, or even primarily, "environmental" groups who were bereft of a useful scare, it was all the apparatus of state bureaucracy. It is also likely that the fall of the USSR ("the end of history") removed the competition on government keeping it a bit honest and not wholly parasitic.
  • In the 1990s the internet (largely developed for academia by academia) was developing, and increasingly it allowed international communication between academics. As such subject specific inter-university “communities” of academics developed to replace the older intra-university communication which predominated before easy national and international communications. - Crichton's book, same chapter, develops the theory that, under the state pressure mentioned above, academia gave up its traditional role as a manufacturer of knowledge and became a manufacturer of scare stories. As can be seen our press, almost daily, report some silly new "report" by a "researcher" at some uni on how, having asked 20 students they have found that there is a 10% above average statistical correlation between smoking/getting laid/eating salt/owning a hat and feeling ill/having politically incorrect ideas/expecting to die before 100.  
  • These new international academic communities, being very focussed on their own area of interest, became very insular and inward looking. They found new freedom from the constraints of their old colleagues from other subjects (who hampered them with “traditional” standards) and started defining their own internal community methodologies, working standards, ethical standards with little reference to other subjects. So, those areas without a long history and so without an established culture or established standards of work, were quick to adopt new ideas and those included ideas such as “post normal science” – which rejects many of the traditional foundations of science such as the requirement for the scientific method as the standard for the validity of scientific theories. - Also if you want to be a scientist you can be one in a government approved "new" discipline, and better paid than those stuffy old disciplines - see Mike Hulme's article on how wonderful the Post Normal Science he does is, where all you have to do is say whatever politicians want and how it is able to prove things that, like CAGW could "self evidently" never have been discovered by traditional science. 
  • As environmentalists looked for new issues, some moved into campaigns for anti-globalisation, anti-industrial, and anti-oil (largely from the increase in oil use and the growing number of oil spills). The common thread here was that they were against an industrial economy powered by fossil fuel. - Even more against one powered by nuclear fuel. Essentially simply against anything that would allow human beings to control more energy because, as Mike and others have demonstrated, human progress marches in lockstep with increases (or reductions) in energy use. Inherently those at the top of society are conservative since any change in society can only take them off their perch.
  • From the 1970s-2000 there was a period when recorded temperature appeared to rise sharply. This coincided with the fall of the Berlin wall, the need for environmental groups to find new issues to campaign on, the rise of the internet. - I would say from 1979 - prior to that we had a decade of what appeared to be decline - which was used as a campaign scare story too.
  • When it was recognised global temperatures were rising, the scene was set. The environmentalists rushed into this new issue, encouraged by the academics (with no culture of holding back). - True.
  • The issue of global warming, quickly picked up momentum and unified the academics, environmentalists, and anti-fossil fuelers into one mass global campaign using the new power of the internet. Free from the old gatekeepers of the press, global warming was able to very quickly dominate public discussion. - I maintain that the unifying power was the state. The internet was not a major factor, except perhaps in academia, until well into the 1990s - for example NATO's Yugolsav wars were possible only because there was no internet competition to the state approved media, but this changed for both Iraq and Syria.
  • This created a new culture in which environmentalist felt free to use their access to the establishment press and their new freedom on the internet to engage  repression and “witch hunts” of any who questioned the idea of CO2 induced warming. - Again I think state power was far more important.
  • However, something else had changed. In the past, whilst the press often created such “bandwagon” scares, it was ironically often the huge investigative resources of the wealthy press that finally uncovered the truth and brought the scare to a shuddering end. But this time the scare originated from outside the press and after 2000, the internet began seriously eating into the advertising revenue of newspapers as online advertising began to take over. In the past, if one wanted to sell a house, a car, find out what was on – then there was no choice but to buy a newspaper. Newspapers therefore had huge revenues and could afford to employ many journalists to investigate stories to fill the news sections. After 2000, as the internet took over the newspaper revenues crashed. Serious investigative journalism was now a luxury that could only be afforded on major scandals. As the internet took over, newspapers found themselves unable to do much more than copy and paste press releases without checking. - I'm not sure the press was ever that good but you make a good point that now they cannot afford to even try journalism, rather than just rewriting press releases.
  • Not only did this stop newspapers investigating, it also meant that papers could only afford to print “copy and paste” news. This meant that they focussed on the large institutions whose size guaranteed credibility. This was important as the journalists did not have to waste their limited resources checking up on the source of these stories. Also these institutions were large enough to afford to employ the staff who began doing the journalists job and writing the stories in a  ready-to-print format. - Ok so they don't always much rewrite the press releases. The concentration on large institutuions, almost always officially part of the state or state funded sockpuppets. There are not likely to be more truthful but, because od state power they may be more "credible" - a self reinforcing process. In fact I would say most serious online sources are more reliable than most approved ones, if only because online you can check primary sources. Today even in matters of military intelligence online private sources have a better record of knowing what is going on than the CIA.  
  • Smaller, less credible groups, without the resources of PR staff, failed to get press coverage. This further exacerbated the divide because only the big established organisations could afford to get the press coverage that got establishment funding. This has always been the case.
  • As a result, these new campaign groups had no real alternative. They could not get heard in the traditional print media, and so went online. This established a very sharp division in social communication: On the one side the old press, now reduced to “copy-and-pasting” establishment press releases and stories fed to them. On the other the new “peer-to-peer” internet completely bypassing all the establishment and talking to the public directly. This new internet was a “wild-west” atmosphere where anything went and there was no controls over what was said and whilst a lot was said, much of it lacked authority and credibility. The great thing is that we now do have an online alternative.
  • This is where those opposed to the now establishment orthodoxy of climate now got their message across.

  • UPDATE - Mike's reply
    Neil, a great contribution. I kind of threw that together in a hurry. Yes, the time the internet started to come into play was 1990. Early on it was entirely academic (and military – but we don’t hear about that). What I assume is that environmentalists either through universities or because so many academics are environmentalists, was a very early adopter of the internet. In effect, they saw the internet as a way of bypassing the “oversight” of the press and that is how they campaigned. So, e.g. by the time wikipedia came along the environmentalists were so good at using the internet, that they just took over these websites. Finally, we saw the “old fogeys” like us skeptics starting to use the internet. Now, the internet is possibly dominated by skeptics.
     
    It would be interesting to compare the behaviour of “new” climate departments and old “climatology” type departments. If I’m right, then most of the worst “hot-heads” should be from universities that started up climate departments.
     
    Your point on nuclear power is correct. What I was trying to show is how “CO2″/fossil fuel, became a beacon around which a whole lot of disparate groups could unite. I suppose I should also have added “wind developers” and “oil companies – seeking to look green”.
     
    In terms of government, I tend to view what government & politicians do as a cock-up. I do think many politicians were extremely gullible and thought “being green” was a very cheap way to get votes. There was a time every government minister wanted to be photoed in front of a windmill – because they were falsely led to believe by the wind lobbyists that it was a no-lose way to be portrayed as “caring” and being “with it”.
     
    All politicians were told that wind was:
    a) free
    b) clean
    c) “wanted”
    d) attractive
    e) would create jobs
    f) They were left thinking it was just a few small windmills that no one would notice.
    g) had no drawbacks.
     
    Politicians and civil servants ALMOST ABSOLUTELY NONE OF WHOM ARE ENGINEERS. Were left believing it was total madness not to go all out for wind. And they left themselves be poisoned by the evil wind developers (whose biggest contributors were oil companies) and gullible “greens” into actively excluding anyone who questioned their policy as they were told we were “EVIL OIL-PAID/mad/deniers/witches/bogey men”
    No, the press were never that good. But as the lady from “No Fracking consensus” said to me – these days each journalist needs to get 10 stories out each and every day. They simply do not have the time even to rewrite a badly worded press release. Unless it’s word perfect — in the bin!!
     
    In the past, a journalist would expect to meet local campaign groups (and local campaign groups would be really keen to talk to journalists – as there was almost no other way to get their message to the public). What is more the people in the campaign – would buy the paper to hear the latest news.
     
    These days, if you need to organise a campaign – you go online. The press are an after thought, and less and less people buy newspapers to get updates from these types of campaigns.
     
    For a journalist, these local campaigners are a real nightmare – they really expect the journalist to write the story for them, that takes up a huge chunk of time (From what I saw, about a full man-day, when journalist and photographer are added together). That compares to perhaps 30mins for a professional press release.

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    Was LNT really "faked"? Surely it was just an admittedly arbitrary assumption made in the hope of being rather conservative?

    The "faking" consists of not reviewing it in the light of later evidence.
     
    It is likely that Hermann Muller, Nobel Prizewinner, deliberately fiddled the evidence to start this scare. http://atomicinsights.com/muller-and-linear-no-threshold/

    Later there was the case of the cattle who were exposed during the 1945 bomb test, kept for study and quietly put to sleep in the 1960s when their failure to die at the maximum known age of cattle was embarrassing.

    I'll grant that the difference between massaging results to improve them, as Mendel certainly did, and fraud is subjective an humanity's ability to convince ourselves we are on the side of the angels is unlimited.
     
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