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Sunday, December 08, 2013

What The Warming Theory Actually Promises

   The date when the catastrophic warming scare became officially accepted and since when dissent has been censored with the remark "the debate is over" in July 1988.

    That was when James Hansen testified to Congress about CAGW.

     Compare the promised catastrophe with the reality of the climate widget above, which shows no effective correlation with CO2 rise (Hansen's promises of 1988 were made just before the 3rd line).

    I thought it might be nice to find out what he actually promised. So here it is.

"But today Dr. James E. Hansen of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration told a Congressional committee that it was 99 percent certain that the warming trend was not a natural variation but was caused by a buildup of carbon dioxide and other artificial gases in the atmosphere.

which puts the IPCC raising their certainty from 90% to 95% look sick

If Dr. Hansen and other scientists are correct, then humans, by burning of fossil fuels and other activities, have altered the global climate in a manner that will affect life on earth for centuries to come.....

He and other scientists testifying before the Senate panel today said that projections of the climate change that is now apparently occurring mean that the Southeastern and Midwestern sections of the United States will be subject to frequent episodes of very high temperatures and drought in the next decade and beyond. But they cautioned that it was not possible to attribute a specific heat wave to the greenhouse effect, given the still limited state of knowledge on the subject.

Several Senators on the Committee joined witnesses in calling for action now on a broad national and international program to slow the pace of global warming.

Senator Timothy E. Wirth, the Colorado Democrat ("Wirth in an interview to PBS, admitted to staging the hearing by intentionally scheduling it on the historically hottest day of the summer and opening the windows to the hearing room the night before so the air conditioning would not be working" - Wikipedia) who presided at hearing today, said: ''As I read it, the scientific evidence is compelling: the global climate is changing as the earth's atmosphere gets warmer. Now, the Congress must begin to consider how we are going to slow or halt that warming trend and how we are going to cope with the changes that may already be inevitable.'' .....

If the current pace of the buildup of these gases continues, the effect is likely to be a warming of 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit (2-6 C) from the year 2025 to 2050, according to these projections. This rise in temperature is not expected to be uniform around the globe but to be greater in the higher latitudes, reaching as much as 20 degrees, and lower at the Equator.

As you can see it is up about 0.1 C, 1/20th to 1/60th from 1988 with 2/3rds of that time passed

The rise in global temperature is predicted to cause a thermal expansion of the oceans and to melt glaciers and polar ice, thus causing sea levels to rise by one to four feet by the middle of the next century. Scientists have already detected a slight rise in sea levels. At the same time, heat would cause inland waters to evaporate more rapidly, thus lowering the level of bodies of water such as the Great Lakes.

Well that's a pack of lies isn't it. The alleged detection of a slight rise was simply the 10th-20th of an inch per decade since the ice age. If this were not fraudulent would now be up 6 inches to 2 feet

Dr. Hansen, who records temperatures from readings at monitoring stations around the world,

Anthony Watts started his blog checking out these monitoring stations and finding so many of them were faked - places that had been in countryside 50 years ago and were now in suburbia and worse

 had previously reported that four of the hottest years on record occurred in the 1980's.

proven false at least for the USA where the warmest years were in the 1930s

In the first five months of this year, the temperature averaged about four-tenths of a degree above the base period, Dr. Hansen reported today. ''The first five months of 1988 are so warm globally that we conclude that 1988 will be the warmest year on record unless there is a remarkable, improbable cooling in the remainder of the year,'' he told the Senate committee.

Note that he is using a five month period as significant - now alarmists give their word that 18 years without warming isn't - well only those who aren't even 5/216ths honest but there appears to be none who are more honest than that

Dr. Syukuro Manabe  ''it is likely that severe mid-continental summer dryness will occur more frequently with increasing atmsopheric temperature.''

While natural climate variability is the most likely chief cause of the current drought, Dr. Manabe said, the global warming trend is probably ''aggravating the current dry condition.'' He added that the current drought was a foretaste of what the country would be facing in the years ahead.

Dr. George Woodwell, director of the Woods Hole Research Center in Woods Hole, Mass., said that while a slow warming trend would give human society time to respond, the rate of warming is uncertain. One factor that could speed up global warming is the widescale destruction of forests
Some experts also believe that concern over global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels

Since the warming trend is at least 20 times slower than promised that "time to respond" promise seems proven, not that the alarmists now mention it
  Note that this is as close to a foundation document as alarmism has and it is clearly dishonest in a couple of points and arguably more importantly from a science point of view, overwhelmingly wrong in its predictions. In science, or indeed in common sense, a theory which predicts falsely on virtually every point should be treated as unscientific rubbish.

    At the very least any remotely honest "environmentalist" not willing to publicly admit that the sceptics are telling the truth and they aren't must be able to explain why sea levels have actually risen by 6" to 2' without actually doing so.

    Anybody not doing so is, by definition, a corrupt totalitarian fascist liar who can never be trusted to be telling the truth on any other subject either. Over to you LabNatConDems & BBC.

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