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Thursday, January 03, 2013

Predictions for 2013

John Redwood has done one of these saying "2013 will be more of the same" which 4 times out of 5 will be largely right on everything from economics to weather. Here arer a few speculations  on what may be different - mostly where 2 trends cross.

Last year's predictions averaged above 50% though I was wrong to think Obama would lose, the euro crisis would be resolved, that there would be physical intervention in Iraq by Turkey, Iran & Saudi, and SpaceX took off later than I expected. On the other hand I was right about world economic growth continuing, about the refusal of our politicians to allow it to happen here, about the media dropping the term "catastrophic global; warming" (they have also dropped the word Kyoto), about UK electricity prices continuing to rise and about all the parties, other than UKIP, losing support (and members)

SpaceX will continue to be successful. Their share IPO will be oversubscribed proving there will be investment money available for commercial space development.

World economic growth will continue at around 6%, outwith the EU, and the EU countries will continue on the edge of recession. America, because of shale gas, will continue its modest growth.

By years end there wil be several arcologies, like Skycity One but aimed more at maximising volume than height, building or completed. At least one will not be in China.

The long predicted catastrophic rise inn global temperature will not occur.

There will be no broadcast admissionmn by the BBC of 28 gate but it will become public knowledge and trust in the BBC being in any way honest will continue to eva[porate.

UKIP's polling vote share will continue to rise and the Conservatives to fall. By years's end UKIP will not be 2nd party in the polls (except for the Euro election) but will be remarkably close.

Discovered shale gas resources will continue to grow worldwide and will fuel the modest economic growth in the USA & other anti-free enterprise states. Growth may even expand beyond 10% in a number of the growing economies for that reason and world economic growth overall will be slighjtly up because of the shale gas revolution. All parties in Britain will have publicly come round to nominally supporting shale development, even the SNP, but always with "due controls" which will make investing here dubious and thus our economy will continue to stagnate.

The Scottish economy will underperform the UK even more obviously and the scottish media will start to notice.

I'll repeat my prediction for last year about the euro - it will nominally remain one currency but in fact split into competing ones.

Brazil will start flexing its muscles as a bigger economy )now bigger than Britain's) - perhaps by actively supporting Argentina over the Falklands.

There will be a bloodbath in Syria - the western countries will disavow all responsibility and our media will tell us it happened because we didn't intervene when the truth is that it happened because we did.

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