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Saturday, September 29, 2012

New Poll - UKIP Rising Fast In Scotland

   We have another new YouGov poll across the nation. The national result is that we are again in 3rd place, a fraction of a percent ahead of the LibDems so no change there.

  However the Scottish results are more spectacular

Conservative 17%   (-2%)
Labour 40%           (-1%)
LibDem 4%             no change
UKIP 8%                (+4%)
SNP 28%                (-5%)
Green 1%                (-1%)
BNP 2%                  (+1%)

  First all the warnings that there is a margin of error (3% for the larger figures) & that it is a snapshot & so on. But:

  In brackets is the change from the last such poll I covered in May. The progress over 5 months is spectacular.

  We are now way ahead of the LibDems, with whom we were even. A position we have never before held in Scotland. Up to now UKIP Scotland has way underperformed  the UK, leading to accusations that it is just a south of England phenomenon. That has not been true for years, but that it is not a Scottish one has been claimable.

I can't think of anything specific we have done to achieve this swing in Scotland so I guess it is simply the way the times are moving.

 UKIP is still marginally below the UK level but there are more parties to divide the vote among so that is unsurprising.

 The SNP drop looks ominous for them, though they have regularly placed second during the last parliament and then raced past Labour at the finish line. On the other hand we are in a recession & the SNP aren't even trying to do anything to help, so intent are they on the referendum.

With Jim Mather retired the faction of the economically sane in the SNPis pretty much defunct. For a long rime they have maintained, or at least produced the illusion of maintaining, a balance between left and right. With SNP MSPs now denouncing anybody who doesn't want unlimited immigration, or that thinks North Korea isn't a good economic model, that voter base may shatter.

   Labour's vote is almost holding up but that is all it is doing. It is well known that Labour's vote is almost feudally loyal. Some years ago, in another party, I was told "There's no point in telling a Laboiur voter their representative is an idiot because they already know - and it doesn't stop them voting for him" and if anything Hollyrood merely seems to have reinforced the point. Labour is a bit like a punch-drunk prizefighter - no brains, no activity, but still too strong to knock over.

  The Conservative 2% drop should have then scared. If, in opposition, with their brand new leader and opposition parties going nowhere, they are still losing votes then what are they for? UKIP is now on half the vote of the party governing the UK.

 Murdo Fraser's promise, if he became leader, that he would wind up the party and start a broadbased Scottish pro-market party did have potential but the current trend suggests they now get the votes of well under half the potential free market voters and that, in Scotland at least, UKIP would be a stronger foundation for such a change to coalesce around.

  I am pleased to see the Greens dropping below the BNP. I regard the human progress hating Greens as more destructive and more opposed to human freedom than any traditional sort of fascist (& by the standards of history the BNP aren't fascist anyway). When you consider the massive amount of media support the Greens get, particularly from the state owned media, the fact that they are down to 1% is pitiful. A party of UFO contactees, with that much government support, would do better.

  Where we in Scotland do score is that Holyrood is that, because we don't have the openly corrupt First Past thr Post electoral system people do not feel constrained to vote for one lot of chancers to keep the other lot of chancers out. The "voting UKIP
is a wasted vote" argument doesn't hold water. If you have the right policies, which, for those who think freedom works, we clearly do, people feel free to vote for you.

Also us being a minority party isn't unusual because in a 6 party system everybody, even the current SNP, represents a minority. It wouldn't take that much for a free market movement, whether UKIP, or a broader coalition sharing most of our values, to be the largest minority.

On the current trend we should top the Conservative vote in 8 months? Well? As I said at the beginning these polls should not be taken as gospel. But they can't be ignored either. Well OK they can in the "balanced" coverage the state broadcaster is required to provide, but even such censorship cannot hold back the popular mood forever.

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