Thursday, November 03, 2011
[Mann's Hockey Stick] has been utterly debunked by the work of Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick. I urge you to read Andrew Montford’s careful and highly readable book The Hockey Stick Illusion*. Here is not the place to go into detail, but briefly the problem is both mathematical and empirical. The graph relies heavily on some flawed data – strip-bark tree rings from bristlecone pines -- and on a particular method of principal component analysis, called short centering, that heavily weights any hockey-stick shaped sample at the expense of any other sample. When I say heavily – I mean 390 times.
This had a big impact on me. This was the moment somebody told me they had made the crop circle the night before.
For, apart from the hockey stick, there is no evidence that climate is changing dangerously or faster than in the past, when it changed naturally.
It was warmer in the Middle ages* and medieval climate change in Greenland was much faster.
Stalagmites*, tree lines and ice cores all confirm that it was significantly warmer 7000 years ago. Evidence from Greenland suggests that the Arctic ocean was probably ice free for part of the late summer at that time.
Sea level* is rising at the unthreatening rate about a foot per century and decelerating.
Greenland is losing ice at the rate of about 150 gigatonnes a year, which is 0.6% per century.
There has been no significant warming in Antarctica*, with the exception of the peninsula.
Methane* has largely stopped increasing.
Tropical storm* intensity and frequency have gone down, not up, in the last 20 years.
Your probability* of dying as a result of a drought, a flood or a storm is 98% lower globally than it was in the 1920s.
Malaria* has retreated not expanded as the world has warmed.
And so on. I’ve looked and looked but I cannot find one piece of data – as opposed to a model – that shows either unprecedented change or change is that is anywhere close to causing real harm.
That is a quite astonishing claim. I certainly have not seen anything remotely similar and we do have weather in towns too. Do you know of anybody taking readings of the weather who has reported the same?
Perhaps you could identify yourself mire clearly than simply as a 70 year old farmer. There is an unfortunate trend among econazis to claim credentials they do not hold and experience they do not have, which makes such confirmation necessary when discussing anything they support.
I assume you will condemn such tactics as readily as I and help by identifying yourself sionce otherwise it will appear to be evidence of econazi dishonesty.
Or you won't.
That would be no then?
The difficulty of getting the harvest in may be affected by you being, though unidentifiable, we are assured, 70, which makes comparison with the past difficult.
Last year's snow was not generally considered evidence of catastrophic warming.