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Sunday, August 14, 2011

1950 Predictions for 2000 by Heinlein

  This is a list of predictions Robert A Heinlein made in a speech at a Science Fiction Convention in 1950 for the year 2000. He subsequently reviewed their success, or otherwise in 1965 and 1980. His predictions and answers in full were published in Expanded Universe.

  He doesn't score 100% but I think he comes far closer than either the popular or "intellectual" consensii pf the time:

1. Interplanetary travel is waiting at your front door -- C.O.D. It's yours when you pay for it.

True - The Luddite politicians have prevented us having it but we could have got to Saturn by 1970 if wanted.
2. Contraception and control of disease is revising relations between the sexes to an extent that will change our entire social and economic structure.
This was said when a woman still had to prove she was married to be prescribed the pill.
3. The most important military fact of this century is that there is no way to repel an attack from outer space. [Expansion makes it clear that he is not talking "alien invasion" but "who holds the high point" in human affairs.]

The Kuwait War was the "first space war" because satellite pictures and communication were massive force multipliers, hence the stunningly low casualties on our side and quick victory
4. It is utterly impossible that the United States will start a "preventive war." We will fight when attacked, either directly or in a territory we have guaranteed to defend.

Unfortunately after the fall of the USSR the US and allies launched a series of purely aggressive wars against Yugoslavia & others since. In no case has there been even the excuse that they were "preventative" - they were and are pure aggression, not even for larceny but simply for the sake of killing people. ""every now and again the United States has to pick up a crappy little country and throw it against a wall just to prove we are serious." Sorry Robert you overestimated your country's government.
5. In fifteen years the housing shortage will be solved by a "breakthrough" into new technologies which will make every house now standing as obsolete as privies.

Modular housing has certainly been available since before then. In China they are putting up tower blocks in days but western governments prevent it. Another overestimation of our governments.
6. We'll all be getting a little hungry by and by.

Fortunately not. Peak food, like peak oil, peak uranium, peak gasetc etc is an ever receding chimera driven back by improving technology.
7. The cult of the phony in art will disappear. So-called "modern art" will be discussed only by psychiatrists.

Sorry - government subsidised art remains rubbish. However every form of commercial art, from adverts to comic books is both technically and intellectually vastly better.
8. Freud will be classed as a pre-scientific, intuitive pioneer and psychoanalysis will be replaced by a growing, changing "operational psychology" based on measurement and prediction.

Freud is so classified and some genuine progress is being made by people who understand statistics. However we see more from people given government subsidies to produce lies that promote more government spending.
9. Cancer, the common cold, and tooth decay will all be conquered; the revolutionary new problem in medical research will be to accomplish "regeneration," i.e., to enable a man to grow a new leg, rather than fit him with an artificial limb.

Medical research is not that advanced. I suspect at least largely because any new treatment, even the simplest new drug, take 10 years and $1 bn before they can be used.
10. By the end of this century mankind will have explored this solar system, and the first ship intended to reach the nearest star will be a-building.

Again it certainly could have been don, as Project Orion showed. However government Luddites prevented it.
11. Your personal telephone will be small enough to carry in your handbag. Your house telephone will record messages, answer simple inquiries, and transmit vision. [In 1980 he observes that the likelihood that phones tied into home computers will accomplish the second sentence, and will eventually enable 3-dimensional holovision and stereo speech.]

And then some. This technology was not physically immobile and thus it proved almost impossible to prevent it - though government fascists keep trying.

12. Intelligent life will be found on Mars.

No because there clearly isn't intelligent life there. There may well be microbial life but the search hasn't been extensive. If so it will either turn out to be related to Earth's life or not to be. Either discovery, or indeed the lack of life, will change our place in the universe.
13. A thousand miles an hour at a cent a mile will be commonplace; short hauls will be made in evacuated subways at extreme speed. [His note in 1965 indicates his intent to mean the 1950 cent; he did not foresee the continual ongoing inflation of the second half of the 20th century.]

With the dollar now a 9th of its value at the time a flight to the USA at 9 cents a mile would be $225. If you hunt around I think you can do significantly better than that.

14. A major objective of applied physics will be to control gravity.

There are such researchers. I don't know if it would be called a major objective. Like cold fusion you won't get government grants for that and government funding has been proven to retard research overall.

15. We will not achieve a "World State" in the predictable future. Nevertheless, Communism will vanish from this planet.

This latter was spectacularly optimistic at the time and moreso by 1980. Yet, unless you redefine "communism" as the Chinese have, it is effectively true. We don't have a "world state" but the pressure of international bodies means were are much closer to a de facto government, enforcing big government parasitism than is safe for the human race.
16. Increasing mobility will disenfranchise a majority of the population. About 1990 a constitutional amendment will do away with state lines while retaining the semblance.

The constitutional amendment proved unnecessary. Banning alcohol required such an amendment but banning cannabis only requires Judges to "find" powers in the Constitution not written down. In many ways the Constitution has been done away with while maintaining the semblance.
17. All aircraft will be controlled by a giant radar net run on a continent-wide basis by a multiple electronic "brain."

Possible for decades but has not been done. The unions and other vested interests don't want such progress.
18. Fish and yeast will become our principal sources of proteins. Beef will be a luxury; lamb and mutton will disappear.

This is #6 again and hasn't happened for the same reason - human inventiveness.
19. Mankind will not destroy itself, nor will "Civilization" be destroyed.

Good so far, as the guy said 2 seconds after jumping off the Empire State Building
Here are things we won't get soon, if ever:

Travel through time

Travel faster than the speed of light

"Radio" transmission of matter.

Manlike robots with manlike reactions

Laboratory creation of life

Real understanding of what "thought" is and how it is related to matter.

Scientific proof of personal survival after death.

Nor a permanent end to war.


In most cases where he was wrong it was not he but reality that got it wrong - they are technically entirely feasible but our parasitic governments prevent it.

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Therefore, should there not be a "science" of defeating government and getting political scum off our backs? It is a problem like any other, therefore there must be solutions--psychohistory etc?
Robert Heinlein also predicted there would be major global warming caused by CO2 by 2000--something the censoring anti-science jihadists try to cover up on a daily basis. The photos in the previous links show the anti-science deniers decapitating anyone who refuses to accept their religion of book burning dogma. They subsequently shagged sheep.

And still from the jihadists no answers to the 7 questions:

Here are seven questions that no climate so-called “skeptic” has been able to answer. If they were to answer them honestly they would be forced to admit that their entire anti-science jihad is corrupt:

1. Do you agree with Richard Lindzen and Roy Spencer’s statements that anthropogenic global warming is undeniable?

2. Do you accept that the rise in CO2 has increased ocean acidification, hastening the destruction of marine ecosystems with long term negative consequences for seafood production?
3. Do you accept that the National Academy of Sciences, and subsequent peer reviewed literature, have affirmed the fundamental conclusions of the “Hockey Stick” temperature reconstructions presented Mann and his colleagues?

4. Do you accept that many claims from people and organisations on the denialist side, such as Steven McIntyre’s claim that the National Academy of Sciences supported his critique of Mann, or Wegmann’s critique of Mann being shown to be plagiarism and fraud, are examples of denailist “voodoo”?

5. Do you accept that there are a number of carbon-based fuel conservation solutions and alternative energy sources that are both affordable and will have to be undertaken eventually anyway as fossil fuel reserves are depleted?

6. Do you accept that denialist fraud (Such as Wegman’s or McIntyre’s) detracts from the credibility of the entire denialist movement?

7. Of the alleged "skeptics" - can you name 2 climate specialists, who have no track record of fossil fuel industry support, who deny the scientific consensus regarding global warming outlined by the IPCC?
The Anonymouse here is Skip an eminent "climate scientist" published in "the finest journals" who has been lying in the "scienceblogs" site and continues to do so here.

These questions are an attempt to respond to my 7 questions, without either him or anybody in the alarmist movement actually answering them. He is, of course, lying about them not having been answered since I did so here

His response was not to dispute the answers but to claim that he was being censored, something obviously incompatible with him being able to make the claim.

He is totally dish0onest and the alarmist community, by supporting him, have proven that the entire community of climate alarmist "scientists" are wholly and completely dishonest.

PS He is also lying about Heinlein
And still no honest answers.

So now you are admitting that Heinlein predicted global warming?

Are there any other lies you want to confess?
xaxaxa i just love those "Anonymous" guys. I guess each of us Neil has one "anonymous" on their back...I like to believe that they will remain anonymous for their entire lives, "nobodies" so to say, that no-one will ever remember...I love the one on PREVENTIVE WARS THOUGH- a bit naive
Thank you! I hope you have many useful articles to share with everyone!
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