Saturday, May 02, 2009
SWINE FLU - AN OPPORTUNITY
“We are confronted with insurmountable opportunities!” Walt Kelly
On one hand we have never been so susceptible to a major new disease. In previous ages it took months or even years for a disease to cross continents. Now with international air travel we see a Mexican flu strain appearing in Scotland & Australia within weeks of its first appearance in an isolated Mexican hamlet. In another way we are endangered because, unlike earlier generations, we have never known of plagues sweeping the country & killing 10 - 15 - even 30% of the entire population. Beyond that we have a serious problem that many antibiotics have been so widely used that the diseases have evolved past them & they are ceasing to work.
On the other hand we know how diseases spread & the world has the capacity to react fast & virtually anywhere in the world, quarantine, isolate & hunt down infectious disease.
It is a race between the geometric spread of disease & the intelligent directed research & hunting of it. A race where the margin between victory & defeat is very thin & unforgiving.
The important thing to know about a disease is how how & how fast it spreads - this is the disease vector. Anything that interferes with the vector slows or reverses its spread - hence the advice to wash hands, always use a handkerchief & Mexico's masks & closure of sports stadia. None of these will stop it dead but all cut its rate of spread.
If this flu strain, & flu is a particularly infectious disease, infects, on average, 2 people in 3-5 days then the number of people it gets in 90 days is 2 to power 23 =
8,388,608. If by quarantining, changing habits & even curing people it can be reduced to 0.9 people then the number of new cases after 3 months [0.9^23} is less than zero [0.09].
This is why, unlike all the eco-scares which ought to be denounced as fakes when they don't happen, disease scares ought to be treated very seriously even though, if we are lucky, deaths may be in the 10s rather than the millions. The margin between the 2 is very small & SARS, which is now treated with some amusement, could easily have got free & killed 10s of millions rather than hundreds.
That is why it would be wonderful if this strain were to prove a surmountable opportunity. We are unlikely to find a disease more infectious than flu. This strain seems relatively non-lethal, which makes sense since the most successful infections do not kill their hosts for the same reason that the most successful car thieves don't normally crash. The relatively high lethality rate in Mexico seems to contradict this but I am convinced this is because it is actually much more widespread there than acknowledged. The chances, out of a population of 108 million, of the honeymoon couple treated in Scotland, accidentally encountering a disease vector from 1 of only 1,600 officially acknowledged victims would be of the order of 100,000 to 1 against. The chances of it happening more than once to other tourists are very much longer.
However the good news is that, according to the very limited knowledge we actually have, only 2 people have caught the infection from these 2 & other cases inside Britain. That looks like we may keep the infection rate down to much below 1. If, with our knowledge of this strain improving day by day, not least because of our doctors at Monklands hospital, this rate can be achieved worldwide, particularly Mexico, it is theoretically possible this strain could be wiped out. I would give odds against that much success, but not long odds.
The major worry must be that flu is considerably more dangerous during the winter when all our immune systems are weaker & so that even if it is beaten back now it may come back in the winter. Even if it is eliminated in the rest of the world it may remain endemic in Mexico & developed countries, acting in their own interests, should be unstinting in helping Mexico fight it.
On the other hand if we surmount this the human race will have conquered the first of the eternal horsemen of the Apocalypse. We completely eliminated smallpox, but because it exists only in humans it was particularly vulnerable. We eliminated SARS but it was new to humans. To eliminate just 1 strain of flu would be knocking out the champion.
Lets hope this turns out to be a surmountable opportunity.
*We have also pretty nearly eliminated Famine & driven Death back by at least a generation. War still looks fearsome but it is the only horseman created by human beings.
On one hand we have never been so susceptible to a major new disease. In previous ages it took months or even years for a disease to cross continents. Now with international air travel we see a Mexican flu strain appearing in Scotland & Australia within weeks of its first appearance in an isolated Mexican hamlet. In another way we are endangered because, unlike earlier generations, we have never known of plagues sweeping the country & killing 10 - 15 - even 30% of the entire population. Beyond that we have a serious problem that many antibiotics have been so widely used that the diseases have evolved past them & they are ceasing to work.
On the other hand we know how diseases spread & the world has the capacity to react fast & virtually anywhere in the world, quarantine, isolate & hunt down infectious disease.
It is a race between the geometric spread of disease & the intelligent directed research & hunting of it. A race where the margin between victory & defeat is very thin & unforgiving.
The important thing to know about a disease is how how & how fast it spreads - this is the disease vector. Anything that interferes with the vector slows or reverses its spread - hence the advice to wash hands, always use a handkerchief & Mexico's masks & closure of sports stadia. None of these will stop it dead but all cut its rate of spread.
If this flu strain, & flu is a particularly infectious disease, infects, on average, 2 people in 3-5 days then the number of people it gets in 90 days is 2 to power 23 =
8,388,608. If by quarantining, changing habits & even curing people it can be reduced to 0.9 people then the number of new cases after 3 months [0.9^23} is less than zero [0.09].
This is why, unlike all the eco-scares which ought to be denounced as fakes when they don't happen, disease scares ought to be treated very seriously even though, if we are lucky, deaths may be in the 10s rather than the millions. The margin between the 2 is very small & SARS, which is now treated with some amusement, could easily have got free & killed 10s of millions rather than hundreds.
That is why it would be wonderful if this strain were to prove a surmountable opportunity. We are unlikely to find a disease more infectious than flu. This strain seems relatively non-lethal, which makes sense since the most successful infections do not kill their hosts for the same reason that the most successful car thieves don't normally crash. The relatively high lethality rate in Mexico seems to contradict this but I am convinced this is because it is actually much more widespread there than acknowledged. The chances, out of a population of 108 million, of the honeymoon couple treated in Scotland, accidentally encountering a disease vector from 1 of only 1,600 officially acknowledged victims would be of the order of 100,000 to 1 against. The chances of it happening more than once to other tourists are very much longer.
However the good news is that, according to the very limited knowledge we actually have, only 2 people have caught the infection from these 2 & other cases inside Britain. That looks like we may keep the infection rate down to much below 1. If, with our knowledge of this strain improving day by day, not least because of our doctors at Monklands hospital, this rate can be achieved worldwide, particularly Mexico, it is theoretically possible this strain could be wiped out. I would give odds against that much success, but not long odds.
The major worry must be that flu is considerably more dangerous during the winter when all our immune systems are weaker & so that even if it is beaten back now it may come back in the winter. Even if it is eliminated in the rest of the world it may remain endemic in Mexico & developed countries, acting in their own interests, should be unstinting in helping Mexico fight it.
On the other hand if we surmount this the human race will have conquered the first of the eternal horsemen of the Apocalypse. We completely eliminated smallpox, but because it exists only in humans it was particularly vulnerable. We eliminated SARS but it was new to humans. To eliminate just 1 strain of flu would be knocking out the champion.
Lets hope this turns out to be a surmountable opportunity.
*We have also pretty nearly eliminated Famine & driven Death back by at least a generation. War still looks fearsome but it is the only horseman created by human beings.
Comments:
<< Home
1. You get an F for exegesis Neil. The Four Horsemen are unleashed during the end of the world.
Go back and reread Revelation.
2. Mexico should only be given money or medical aid under very close supervision. Mexico can be helped, but only if we watch their use of the aid *very* closely.
The whole reason Mexico needs help is because it is a third world country.
Mexico is a third world country because of Catholic (Latin American) leftism and because it has a national IQ of 86.
3. China may have underreported the number of SARS deaths.
4. Sorry for the angry tone.
Go back and reread Revelation.
2. Mexico should only be given money or medical aid under very close supervision. Mexico can be helped, but only if we watch their use of the aid *very* closely.
The whole reason Mexico needs help is because it is a third world country.
Mexico is a third world country because of Catholic (Latin American) leftism and because it has a national IQ of 86.
3. China may have underreported the number of SARS deaths.
4. Sorry for the angry tone.
# posted by 
: May 02, 2009
: May 02, 2009
Latin American dictatorship. I think at least as many people would argue that Latin America's dictators have generally been right wing than left. Also the question is open as to how much low IQ is a cause of poverty & how much an effect. I don't think it lies at either end of that spectrum.
The people of LA (Latin America) are generally to the left of the US. Also, the darker the person, generally the farther left their political sympathies. I often mention the RCC as a cause of poverty because during the 1960's the Jesuits spread Liberation Theology among the "oppressed" of LA making it seem that communism had the blessing of the church and therefore God. I remember watching an evening news program several years ago that specifically stated that Chavez gets most of his support in poor areas where the RCC is active. So no, matter what their racial IQ is they still end up poorer than they could be.
The low IQ of LA is not due to environmental factors. Mestizo peasants that move to the US do not have children with IQs of 100, instead their children make modest gains at best despite improved nutrition. A few days ago Steve Sailer posted a an article on his blog showing that legal LA immigrants have IQs of 83. I have seen estimates that the illegal ones from Mexico have IQs of 90, so either way LAs lag ten points behind the White average, and probably fifteen points behind Scotland, if not more.
LAs dictators have generally been right wing in this century, especially the ones that were backed by the United States. The people of LA however are very far to the left, both because of religion and because of race. Gary North had a short article once that mentioned a book called The Socialistic Empire of the Incas, so clearly these people did not have traditions of free markets that Europe has struggled to develop over the centuries.
The English tradition of liberty under law and free markets really is unique in the world. England has been a light to the world, and America was just a reflection of that. As the old saying goes, like mother like daughter.
One of the unstated causes of England/Britain abandoning its tradition of liberty is the decline of nationalism. Once the people no longer celebrate why they are unique, and no longer even remember they have no incentive to preserve the legal inheritance they have been given.
The low IQ of LA is not due to environmental factors. Mestizo peasants that move to the US do not have children with IQs of 100, instead their children make modest gains at best despite improved nutrition. A few days ago Steve Sailer posted a an article on his blog showing that legal LA immigrants have IQs of 83. I have seen estimates that the illegal ones from Mexico have IQs of 90, so either way LAs lag ten points behind the White average, and probably fifteen points behind Scotland, if not more.
LAs dictators have generally been right wing in this century, especially the ones that were backed by the United States. The people of LA however are very far to the left, both because of religion and because of race. Gary North had a short article once that mentioned a book called The Socialistic Empire of the Incas, so clearly these people did not have traditions of free markets that Europe has struggled to develop over the centuries.
The English tradition of liberty under law and free markets really is unique in the world. England has been a light to the world, and America was just a reflection of that. As the old saying goes, like mother like daughter.
One of the unstated causes of England/Britain abandoning its tradition of liberty is the decline of nationalism. Once the people no longer celebrate why they are unique, and no longer even remember they have no incentive to preserve the legal inheritance they have been given.
# posted by : May 03, 2009
: May 03, 2009
Not really surprising that poor people are generally to the "left" of rich however LA's history is largely that of the people not getting much say how they are governed. It is more democratic now but GNP is built over generations.
I'll check out Steve's article. I appreciate your confidence in the brains of Scots. Given our contribution to world history & current scientists I suspect it is more justified than this article claiming the opposite http://news.scotsman.com/scotlandspopulation/Scotland-lags-Europe-in-IQ.2762056.jp but when it is only a few points doubt if it proves anything intrinsic either way.
I'll check out Steve's article. I appreciate your confidence in the brains of Scots. Given our contribution to world history & current scientists I suspect it is more justified than this article claiming the opposite http://news.scotsman.com/scotlandspopulation/Scotland-lags-Europe-in-IQ.2762056.jp but when it is only a few points doubt if it proves anything intrinsic either way.
National IQ tables are available here and here.
That article on the IQ of Scottish Whites may have been written to promote a long term agenda or simply out of hatred for Whites. You have to remember that the press exists to provide examples of how daily life confirms immutable dogma handed down from our betters, not to perform any real investigation. If I run over a cat tomorrow on the way to work that would prove to the press that anthropogenic global warming is true.
The UK comes in at around 100 and I would expect that Scotland does too. Remember that all of the stupid immigrants imported over the last several decades will probably lower the UK's average.
The massive gap in wealth between Spain and the US is a good example of how religion can stunt a country economically.
Post a Comment
That article on the IQ of Scottish Whites may have been written to promote a long term agenda or simply out of hatred for Whites. You have to remember that the press exists to provide examples of how daily life confirms immutable dogma handed down from our betters, not to perform any real investigation. If I run over a cat tomorrow on the way to work that would prove to the press that anthropogenic global warming is true.
The UK comes in at around 100 and I would expect that Scotland does too. Remember that all of the stupid immigrants imported over the last several decades will probably lower the UK's average.
The massive gap in wealth between Spain and the US is a good example of how religion can stunt a country economically.
# posted by : May 03, 2009
: May 03, 2009 << Home
