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Tuesday, April 28, 2009


The next sunspot cycle still hasn't started

There is no let up in new research findings and news reports about the extraordinary behaviour of our sun... Solar researchers are readily admitting that they do not understand the mechanisms and dynamics that drive solar variability. Nor are they able to predict the timing and the climatic effects of the next solar cycles.

...Solar scientists have been monitoring the sun's activity for many years in an attempt to establish whether or not its variability is correlated with terrestrial temperature changes. Interestingly, the sun was more active during much of the 20th century than it was for the last 1000 years. Yet, as long as the terrestrial warming trend persisted, this discovery was routinely rejected as wholly insignificant.

Now, however, the sun's cyclical behaviour has gone into reverse. And, coinciding with its exceptional inactivity, temperatures around the world have actually begun to stall, if not to drop slightly. The arrest of the warming trend of the late 20th century at a time that solar activity is exceptionally low again raises the key question of climate science: has our star perhaps a much more dominant effect on climate change than is generally assumed?

... There is no doubt, however, that a growing number of scientists are concerned that the next two or three solar cycles may coincide with low solar activity comparable to previous solar minima.

Benny Peiser (via CCNet)
In 2004, NASA scientists started looking forward to a new solar minimum. In 2005, it began. At this time most scientists expected the new solar cycle 24 to begin in late 2006 or early 2007 with a following ramp up in solar activity.

But 2006 and 2007, according to NASA data, passed without any sign of a new solar cycle. During this time, the sun remained unusually quiet. Then, in early 2008, scientists finally found what they were waiting for -- a single sunspot with a reversed magnetic polarity. As a switch in magnetic polarity usually presages an increase in sunspot activity building up to a new solar maximum, scientists around the world proclaimed the new solar cycle had finally begun.

That was written in early 2008. The Sun is still blank & global temperatures still falling. This is so serious that even the MSM are starting to notice, though I reported it long ago. Now I am not trying to ramp up another scare but it is going to get colder. Normally the coldest part of the year is after the shortest day & in the same way we should expect the coldest planet to be some time after the next sunspot cycle starts. The recovery will take as long from the minimum point as to it & all we know is that we are still some way from the low point. When that will be my guess which is as good as yours & almost as good as the astronomers though some of whom were saying this some years ago
a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the secular Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun's oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove 'skillful' as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun's orbital motion, have turned out correct, as for instance the prediction of the last three El NiƱos years before the respective event.
Landscheidt T. (2003): New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming? Energy & Environment, Volume 14, Numbers 2-3, 1 May 2003, pp. 327-350(24)

Are we heading for a cold spell - Yes.

Are we heading for something like the most stunning interruption on record in the normal pattern of sunspots occurred between the 1640s and about 1715, when the sequence of cycles came to a halt. As sunspots disappeared, the temperature fell: the winter scenes that Brueghel painted so beautifully captured the intensity of cold that Europeans experienced. So did the lines of diarists recalling skating on the Thames. In fact, the river froze hard enough for Londoners to go skating on 14 occasions during that period - Well probably not but only probably.

Are we heading for something much worse - Well very probably not this decade but "Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about 12,000 years" & the last one ended about 9,700 BC so only very probably not this decade & odds must be quite high for sometime this millenium.

Whether warming is a good thing or not can be argued either way, at least if it had got above historic records - if it was only of the 2 degrees of the Roman times history shows it would be a good thing.

There is no debate that cooling would be anything but bad.

What we desperately need is to have a spacegoing civilisation with the capacity, over decades, to produce thousands of square miles of orbital mirrors. That would do it since even the ice age scenario only involves much less than a 1% reduction in solar energy. But such a civilisation will take decades. Will we see the same sort of media campaign to make us spend billions on a fake warming scam as on a real, if hopefully much less hysterical, worry about cooling.

This is so serious that even the MSM are starting to notice...

If we waited for the modern media to warn us if Hitler became dangerous he would already be 500 years into his thousand year Reich before they caught on.

Reporter:Hey, maybe that guy is a little bit dangerous.

Editor: That's not possible! He's a socialist, and he is against smoking in public!

The internet is our only source of real news.
It would depend whether they liked him or not. We get regular media warnings about how the Russians are set to overrun Europe despite the fact that they have retreated nearly a 1,000 miles.
That's because the media only considers other states a threat, while ignoring the muzzies inside.

Hal Lindsay predicts that Russia and Iran will attack Israel, and see their army destroyed.
Israel would have no problem thrashing Iran but, as eorfia showed, Russia's armed forces are highly effective.
...Solar scientists have been monitoring the sun's activity for many years in an attempt to establish whether or not its variability is correlated with terrestrial temperature changes.

This is easily one of the stupidest lines in the article. The only way the Sun could not affect Earth's temperature is if there was another source of heat directed at the Earth. Since there is no other source, the scientists are investigating the obvious. Just another wast of high IQ people who could be doing productive work.
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