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Friday, April 24, 2009


According to the WSJ China will overtake the U.S. in terms of economic output within a decade, according to estimates released Thursday by Deutsche Bank, which said it had to accelerate its forecast of the mainland's leadership in the global economy in view of favorable growth dynamics in emerging markets.

China's growth will be underpinned by a rapid expansion in emerging market economies, which will account for about 70% of global GDP growth in the coming decade, Deutsche Bank's Chief Economist for Greater China, Jun Ma, told an investment conference in Hong Kong.

China will "massively invest" in these emerging economies using its nearly $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, extend its leverage by extending loans to the International Monetary Fund, and allow the yuan to appreciate in preparation for the currency's potential reserve status.

By the early 2020s, China will over the U.S. in terms of GDP, Ma said, noting the forecast is dramatically stepped-up from his views two years earlier.
"China's nominal GDP growth could surpass that of the United States within ten years, a period which will likely be accompanied by a gradual appreciation of the yuan," Ma said.

Basically at 10% annual growth GNP doubles every 7 years. China's growth has actually slowed a bit from that in reaction to the west being able to buy less but with us in negative growth they are catching up even faster. This is all so unnecessary since if our government ran the place competently & cut not only the +50% of the economy that is government spending but the 50% of the economy that is government regulation then we would have a growth rate matching China's. Because technology is inherently growing faster than ever before, Moore's Law or something of a somewhat lesser order applying generally, the Chinese growth rate is not so spectacular & we could all be doing the same. What is spectacular is the degree to which Ludditism & overgovernment are giving the future to those not so afflicted.

I have one objection to China's foreign exchange reserves. These reserves are not the private reserves of the Chinese people, but reserves accumulated by the state. How much tax money has the state been building up? Or did the government implement capital controls to take the Dollar earnings of the Chinese people away from the Chinese people? I can't see their state run foreign investment program working.
Taking away follars from the people is what all governments do, it is that the Chinese government is blowing the money on Ludditry. However I suspect if the Chinese people had been allowed to invest their money individually they would have put it in something smarter than follar reserves - further evifence that though China is doing better than us it is not because their government is wonderfully competent but just that it is moreso than ours.
- further evifence that though China is doing better than us it is not because their government is wonderfully competent but just that it is moreso than ours.

Or that the ChiCom government simply does less internally. A state can save a lot of money if it doesn't pay welfare.
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