Sunday, March 08, 2009
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MY LIFE I AM IN A MARGINAL CONSTITUENCY
This is my local constituency according to electoral calculus:
Glasgow North
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP Ann McKechin (LAB) Electorate 55,419 Turnout 50.38% Top
2005 - Votes 2005 Share Prediction
LAB -----11,001 --39.40% -31.61%
LIB -------7,663 --27.45% -15.97%
NAT -------3,614 --12.94% -31.22%
CON -------2,441 ---8.74% -10.05%
MIN -------2,135 ---7.65% --7.65%
OTH -------1,067 ---3.82% --3.51%
LAB Majority 3,338 11.96% Pred Maj 0.39%
So Labour to hold it but only by 0.39% (100 votes). The minor party will be the SSP who have imploded since them & the other the Greens who dropped at the last Scottish election & seem to have dropped more with the recession & the lack of warmth this winter. Since both of those are largely protest votes & the SNP seem to have maaged the difficult trick of being both government & party of protest it would be likely the bulk of them will go to the SNP.
As can be seen the LibDems used to be easily 2nd party but they have so totally discredited themselves with their Ludditism & economic illiteracy that they aren't even contenders. Though they did recently produce a newsletter with a chart showing the previous result & them & Labour as contenders & SNP & Conservative at the bottom & nobody else standing - this was done by starting the chart not at zero but at about 2,200, which is an example of how to lie with statistics.
This is the first time I have ever been in a marginal constituency. Under the FPTP system very few of us have votes which actually affect anything.
It is going to be tough to decide who to hope loses. Labour are absolutely useless. On the other hand the SNP, who came in promising to cut Corporation Tax & produce a "Celtic Lion" economy growing faster than Ireland's have done very little. They are even more Luddite than Labour on the question of stopping the lights going out. They did introduce an X-Prize but it is for a Luddite sea turbine rather than some morprogressive technology I would like to see.
UPDATE
On further consideration I think that since the Labour, Liberal Democrat & Conservative parties are all guilty of involvement in a joint criminal conspiracy to commit genocide in the Nazi cause in Kosovo it is impossible, except in times of extreme national crises where one of them actually has a credible answer, for anybody to consider voting for them when anothoer party is an alternative. UKIP. the BNP, the SSP & Respect opposed this genocide & must be preferred choices for anybody who isn't a fascit or nazi. The Greens are responsible for a different & far worse genocide.
Glasgow North
County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
MP Ann McKechin (LAB) Electorate 55,419 Turnout 50.38% Top
2005 - Votes 2005 Share Prediction
LAB -----11,001 --39.40% -31.61%
LIB -------7,663 --27.45% -15.97%
NAT -------3,614 --12.94% -31.22%
CON -------2,441 ---8.74% -10.05%
MIN -------2,135 ---7.65% --7.65%
OTH -------1,067 ---3.82% --3.51%
LAB Majority 3,338 11.96% Pred Maj 0.39%
So Labour to hold it but only by 0.39% (100 votes). The minor party will be the SSP who have imploded since them & the other the Greens who dropped at the last Scottish election & seem to have dropped more with the recession & the lack of warmth this winter. Since both of those are largely protest votes & the SNP seem to have maaged the difficult trick of being both government & party of protest it would be likely the bulk of them will go to the SNP.
As can be seen the LibDems used to be easily 2nd party but they have so totally discredited themselves with their Ludditism & economic illiteracy that they aren't even contenders. Though they did recently produce a newsletter with a chart showing the previous result & them & Labour as contenders & SNP & Conservative at the bottom & nobody else standing - this was done by starting the chart not at zero but at about 2,200, which is an example of how to lie with statistics.
This is the first time I have ever been in a marginal constituency. Under the FPTP system very few of us have votes which actually affect anything.
It is going to be tough to decide who to hope loses. Labour are absolutely useless. On the other hand the SNP, who came in promising to cut Corporation Tax & produce a "Celtic Lion" economy growing faster than Ireland's have done very little. They are even more Luddite than Labour on the question of stopping the lights going out. They did introduce an X-Prize but it is for a Luddite sea turbine rather than some morprogressive technology I would like to see.
UPDATE
On further consideration I think that since the Labour, Liberal Democrat & Conservative parties are all guilty of involvement in a joint criminal conspiracy to commit genocide in the Nazi cause in Kosovo it is impossible, except in times of extreme national crises where one of them actually has a credible answer, for anybody to consider voting for them when anothoer party is an alternative. UKIP. the BNP, the SSP & Respect opposed this genocide & must be preferred choices for anybody who isn't a fascit or nazi. The Greens are responsible for a different & far worse genocide.
