Monday, February 16, 2009
IF THIS GOES ON
On the assumption that current growth rates will continue the worlds economies in 2050 will look like this.
China well in first place (currently 5th) with a $70 trillion economy, the US in second (currently 1st) with $40tn, India 3rd (13th) with $35 well ahead of the big 5 EU nations combined (2nd)at $24tn, then Brazil (11th) at $15tn, Russia (12th) just under $10tn, followed in close order by Indonesia (22nd), Mexico (16th), Britain (6th), Turkey (19th), Japan (3rd), France (7th), Germany (4th), Nigeria, Philippines, Canada (10th), Korea(14th).
This is entirely because of the effects of compounded economic growth. Japan was in zero growth for nearly 20 years but if it achieved the sort of growth it had up till then it would stay ahead of China so its presumed low place is not inevitable. With declining populations both Japan & Russia's per person performance is better than it appears.
Indeed none of it is inevitable. We know that developed countries are just as capable of maintaining high growth as the less developed, historically even moreso. Ireland has, without that much effort, produced 7% growth. Singapore, the Baltic states & Hong Kong have been doing even better. Britain's GNP has recently been passed by China's but even so, if we were to maintain the same growth rate we would not be far behind. If the US were to maintain growth above the world average it would not be pushed into 2nd place, at least not by 2050. Seeing what other countries have done there is no question that, if we stop accepting massive economically destructive regulation, a parasitic state sector on the order of half the economy & the restrictions & anti-progress activities of the Luddites, we could match them.
If we went for X-prizes & a commitment to technology we could go further.
PS Original figures via Next Big Future which I have added to the blogroll.
China well in first place (currently 5th) with a $70 trillion economy, the US in second (currently 1st) with $40tn, India 3rd (13th) with $35 well ahead of the big 5 EU nations combined (2nd)at $24tn, then Brazil (11th) at $15tn, Russia (12th) just under $10tn, followed in close order by Indonesia (22nd), Mexico (16th), Britain (6th), Turkey (19th), Japan (3rd), France (7th), Germany (4th), Nigeria, Philippines, Canada (10th), Korea(14th).
This is entirely because of the effects of compounded economic growth. Japan was in zero growth for nearly 20 years but if it achieved the sort of growth it had up till then it would stay ahead of China so its presumed low place is not inevitable. With declining populations both Japan & Russia's per person performance is better than it appears.
Indeed none of it is inevitable. We know that developed countries are just as capable of maintaining high growth as the less developed, historically even moreso. Ireland has, without that much effort, produced 7% growth. Singapore, the Baltic states & Hong Kong have been doing even better. Britain's GNP has recently been passed by China's but even so, if we were to maintain the same growth rate we would not be far behind. If the US were to maintain growth above the world average it would not be pushed into 2nd place, at least not by 2050. Seeing what other countries have done there is no question that, if we stop accepting massive economically destructive regulation, a parasitic state sector on the order of half the economy & the restrictions & anti-progress activities of the Luddites, we could match them.
If we went for X-prizes & a commitment to technology we could go further.
PS Original figures via Next Big Future which I have added to the blogroll.
