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Wednesday, September 17, 2008


Remember when we were heading into a long term recession because "the era of cheap oil is over" & because of peak oil we are heading for $200 a barrel. Seems like only a couple of months ago. This was the primary cause for the economic collapse we are undergoing. Well:
Light, sweet crude for October delivery fell $4.56 to settle at $91.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier dipping to $90.51, its lowest level since Feb. 8. On Monday, prices closed below $100 for the first time in six months, shedding more than $5 and wiping out all of oil's gains for the year.

The reason. Well as Julian Simon proved in his bet with Paul Ehrlich commodity prices are in a long term reduction in terms of human labour & indeed always have been. As technology improves commodities get easier to obtain & become a lesser part of the cost of things. There are, occasionally eddies in this flow & a certain amount of deliberate damming up but the trend is clear.

We were promised that peak oil had now been reached or passed. Well see how much oil has been knocked out of the woodwork by this scare. The oil whose production had "peaked" is now rising fast as new drilling is allowed & Canadian tar sands come on line. Since the $ has fallen about 60% against other currencies this $91 is the equivalent of about $55 in terms of the $30 oil a decade ago & since the world economy has grown 5% a year in that period world average incomes have gone up 60%. Thus oil, in man-hours, is almost back where it started & still falling. Since the Israelis say they can make oil from shale at $17 a barrel & the use of GM algae to produce it hasn't got beyond the laboratory stage but has unlimited promise, we may expect further falls.

Which proves our credit crunch/recession is purely caused by the financial shenanigans we have been engaging to maintain both prosperity & the Luddite opposition to any technological progress the western world, but not the eastern, has been engaged in.

Stop playing around with printing pieces of paper & allow entrepreneurs & engineers the freedom to invest & create wealth. If the bloody politicians, other eco-fascist parasites who, a couple of months ago were saying we had reached peak oil & other fabricated scare stories would just get out of the way we would all have a fast rising standard of living.

Good stuff.

It turns out that the $140/barrel nonsense was indeed caused by speculation (as many suspected). Phew, is all I can say. As I bought a second hand car exactly on the day at which petrol prices peaked, I got a pretty good deal out of all this.
Do any of us really think a 12 month example of a run up and a fall off tells us very much. Prices over the last 18 months are still 50% higher --it not how much oil there is its how fast you can extract it to meet demand --and at what prices -- gearing up to produce it faster is a long term prospect and the majors aren't doing it --why? supply isn't getting easier to get.
Well almost everybody the media chose to report a few months agho certainly did. They were all saying this oil surge proved peak oil. The amounts of oil being produced are indeed going up as the graph shows - that the majors have not gone mad & started opening fields which would only be profitab;e at $90 or 4145 or $200 shows they have more understanding of what is going on than the MSM tells us.

Havibf said that 12 month figures don't count would you like to take a side bet that the 18 month figures aren't set in stone & that the price fall is going to continue.
Do you actually expect "Peak Oil" to be a cataclysmic event that becomes immediately apparent to the entire world? As with the US peak in oil production, "Peak Oil" will only ever be seen in the rearview mirror. I suggest that you move away from your own petty prejudices towards "eco-fascist parasites" and start thinking a little deeper before you totally dismiss what many intelligent, educated people (bankers, investors, geologists, physicists, etc.) are VERY concerned about. Rest assured, not all of those people have “ulterior motives”.

Those who think that unlimited and infinite growth is possible and that our standard of living will continue to increase, thanks to endless technological advances, fail to understand that man is not infallible. This is abundantly clear when you consider the mess he has made of the Earth, thus far, and how most people (such as yourself) care little about this destruction.
"Peak oil" is when oil production peaks. Since, following the recent "oil shock" it is rising it has, by definition not peaked.

Your criticism that it can only be recogniosed after the event is correct but would be more reasonably directed against all those eco-fascist scaremongers who have repeatedly given dates, now passed, for when it would happen.

"Infinite" growth may be impossible, or merely meanigless, but continuing growth for the next few centuries seems possible (though it will require getting into space).

While we may have made the Earth "a mess" in terms of the interests of sabretooth tigers we have not done so for human beings. Indeed we have considerably improved it over its natural state as anyone living in a house rather than a natural cave can attest. Beautiful though sabretooth tigers may have been those hunters who killed them had more intelligence & thus, in my opinion, did more to give meaning to the universe.
There has always been numerous predictions of when "Peak" will occur, with many stating it has already occured. Continuing to use statements such as "eco-fascist scaremongers" doesn't make you look like you've really given this issue much serious thought.

You seem to be forgeting that the number of individuals on earth continuously increases. Endless, rapid growth can never be satisfied with a diminishing supply. You are not considering the fact that other countries now wish to become more advanced (India, China come to mind.) They would like to have their piece of the pie.

Your last statement about sabretooth tigers does not make sense, and therefore isn't really worth responding to.

In any case, perhaps someone might want to look at what Matt Simmons has to say:
There have indeed been peak oil predictions regularly since the 1850s when they thought they were going to run out of whales. I think it difficult to deny that those from fates long past can more easily be described as "scaremongering" than fact but clearly you disagree.

The link you provide has very little about what the great Mr Simmons (who he?) says & is all about how wonferful he, his porch & his clothing is. All he actually says is that peak oil has passed, for which no actual evidence is produced (unlike me). But then the concept that assertion, done loudly, is morer important than factual evidence is part of fascism, including in its eco variety.

Since the world economy is growing at 5% & population at 0.5% to concentrate on population growth as your major "proof" is unwise. If you had actually read & understood the post you are replying to you would have seen that I have already answered exactly why your "rapid growth can never be satisfied with a diminishing supply" is economically illiterate nonsence - because "commodity prices are in a long term reduction in terms of human labour & indeed always have been. As technology improves commodities get easier to obtain & become a lesser part of the cost of things".

Now go back to your cave but don't try to drag the rest of the human race back there.
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