Tuesday, July 29, 2008
SCOTTISH GROWTH - MOVE ALONG - NOTHING TO SEE HERE
*GDP rose by 2.1 per cent annually and increased by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2008 (seasonally adjusted).
*In the year to end-March 2008, the Scottish service sector grew by 3.2 per cent, the production sector fell by 0.4 per cent and the construction sector fell by 2.9 per cent.
*In the first quarter of 2008, the service sector grew by 0.5 per cent, the production sector declined by 0.1 per cent and the construction sector fell by 0.4 per cent.
*The UK figures show that GDP rose by 2.8 per cent in the year to end-March 2008 and by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2008.
*Over the year, the UK experienced 3.5 per cent growth in services, 0.5 per cent growth in production and the construction sector grew by 2.4 per cent.
*In the first quarter of 2008, the UK service sector grew by 0.3 per cent, the production sector declined by 0.2 per cent and the construction sector grew by 0.4 per cent.
So we are still behind the UK average though arguably only by more than 1/2% rather than a full 1%. Wow. Worse than that, while services including government spending, are growing faster than average, there has not only been a slight fall in manufacturing but a major fall in building. This may explain why Scots house prices are still rising when UK ones are falling. Since construction is almost entirely constrained by "planning" regulations it is clear that, while the bits of the economy dependent on government spending are growing the bit destroyed by government regulation is doing particularly badly.
By comparison, in 1990, a year after Ireland started its economic reforms its growth rate was up to 4%