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Tuesday, February 07, 2006

CLIMATE CHANGE - ITS WORSE THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED

From Moscow News a useful paper if only to get some perspective on our own dear media.

Starting from 2,012, the process of global cooling will start on the Earth and by the middle of 21st century the whole planet will be captured by low temperatures, an expert from the Russian Sciences Academy Observatory was quoted by NewsRu.com as saying Monday.

The cause of the expected global cooling is a decrease in the flow of the Sun's radiation, Khabibulo Absudamatov says.

"We have already witnessed a cooling of the kind in Europe, in North America and Greenland in 1645-1705, with canals freezing in Holland, and people abandoning settlements because of nearing glaciers in Greenland. This is what we are expecting again in some decades," he said.

Analysis of the Sun's radiation fluctuations that influence the climate on Earth shows that the planet at the moment is on the peak of the global warming process, Absudamatov said. Now, with the decrease in the Sun's radiation, global temperatures are going to decrease, too.

"In 20th century, the Sun's activity could be characterized by a general increase in the amount of radiated energy, and global warming was a result of this process. Global warming is by no means an anomaly, but a normal phenomenon. Global warmings, as well as global coolings, have happened before."

According to Absudamatov, the global cooling will start in 2,012 or 2,013. By 2035 the Sun's radiation will reach its minimum, and 15 years later a deep cooling of the Earth's climate should be expected.

I don't know if this is any more reliable than the global warming scare & the fact is that neither does anybody else, or rather that those who claim to be certainty thereby prove themselves untrustworthy.

Despite the fact that the IPCC's beloved Hockeystick graphs denied the existence of cold periods at times of low sunspot activity these certainly happened & can be expected to happen again.

What we need is (A) more research, good research always pays off even, or particularly, when it finds something unexpected & (B) a space going civilization - the only place where we can not only see what is going on here but build the mirrors, shades etc to fine tune the weather (& to divert 100 million tons of cometary ice coming in faster than a speeding bullet) is in space.

Comments:
Two things I learned when I looked into the Global Warming stuff a few years ago:-
1) The climate modellers treat the energy input from the sun as a constant,
2) While building into their models the amplifier you need to let you predict large temperature responses to otherwise negligible increases in CO2 concentrations.
You'll observe that if amplifiers can exist (and I'll bet they can) it is odd to ignore the possibility of even quite small variations in input from the sun.
 
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