Wednesday, January 26, 2005
HERALD LETTER - PREDICTING LABOUR WIN
This was in the Herald on Saturday - this is the original letter & contains the stuff from Electoral Calculus that proves my point.
.....................................................
The opinion of Peter Russell (letter 18/1) that Labour are heading for a majority beyond their wildest dreams may, unfortunately, be true. However it is equally true that when they do so it will be with roughly 2/3rds of voters voting against them.It has been calculated that if Labour get 31% of the vote at the coming election & nobody doubts that they will, then they will get an overall majority < http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/index.html >. This applies even if the Tories get 32%.
This is what is known as the First Past the Post electoral system. It is not under any circumstances what is known as democracy. If events run true to form 1 5th of the electorate will vote in Blair, 2 5ths will try to vote him out & the other 2 5ths will decide the game is fixed & refuse to play - they can hardly be blamed. The blame for the public contempt for the electoral process must lie with those politicians who knowingly support such a corrupt system.
Yours Faithfully
Neil Craig
(Copy of prediction from web site quoted;
User-defined Prediction
The predicted results in the country, given the national levels of support which you entered, are as follows. National Prediction: LAB majority 6
Party2001 Votes2001 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 32.71% 165 32.00% 231
LAB 42.05% 403 31.00% 326
LIB 18.84% 51 18.84% 58
.....................................................
The opinion of Peter Russell (letter 18/1) that Labour are heading for a majority beyond their wildest dreams may, unfortunately, be true. However it is equally true that when they do so it will be with roughly 2/3rds of voters voting against them.It has been calculated that if Labour get 31% of the vote at the coming election & nobody doubts that they will, then they will get an overall majority < http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/index.html >. This applies even if the Tories get 32%.
This is what is known as the First Past the Post electoral system. It is not under any circumstances what is known as democracy. If events run true to form 1 5th of the electorate will vote in Blair, 2 5ths will try to vote him out & the other 2 5ths will decide the game is fixed & refuse to play - they can hardly be blamed. The blame for the public contempt for the electoral process must lie with those politicians who knowingly support such a corrupt system.
Yours Faithfully
Neil Craig
(Copy of prediction from web site quoted;
User-defined Prediction
The predicted results in the country, given the national levels of support which you entered, are as follows. National Prediction: LAB majority 6
Party2001 Votes2001 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 32.71% 165 32.00% 231
LAB 42.05% 403 31.00% 326
LIB 18.84% 51 18.84% 58
