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Tuesday, December 14, 2004


If there were a General Election tomorrow, what would happen?

Current Prediction: Labour majority 134
Party 2001 Votes 2001 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 32.70% 165 31.37% 169
LAB 42.05% 403 37.02% 390
LIB 18.84% 51 21.64% 57

Prediction based on opinion polls from 4 Nov 04 to 5 Dec 04, sampling 8,475 people.

From Electoral Calculus

My guess is that the Lib Dem vote will be a bit higher (Lib Dem votes usually go up a bit near elections because they actually get mentioned on telly) & that the Labour vote will drop a few % because of UKIP & Respect(SSP in Scotland) & the Tories similarly because of UKIP. You can pull me up on this after the day.

What this looks like is a result very similar the last "overwhelming Labour victory" on paper. One difference is that traditionally people have voted not for one party but to keep out the other (not for Blair but to keep out Thatcher) - on this occasion it looks like you can vote for whoever you want & Labour still wins. The Tories would have to do 9% better than (& Labour 9% worse) shows to get a majority & that just ain't gonna happen.

The problem for democracy is that Labour may achieve this on not much more than, or even less than 1/3rd of the vote. The Labour vote is more concentrated so the FPTP system doesn't work quite as well for the Tories (which doesn't stop them looking back on their golden days & supporting a system they know is corrupt but used to be corrupt in their favour).

I personally think that having a government that is heartily disliked by 2/3rds of the people (actually more assuming another dismal turnout) but has essentially unlimited legislative & executive power is not consistent with democracy. But then I think water is wet so what do I know?

So water is wet. Tories did 1.5% better rather than dropping but otherwise this holds up well.
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