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Saturday, June 28, 2014

Scottis Tories Unpopular Because of the Callous PM Who Deliberately Destroyed Our Industry & Killed Communities

     This is to prove some ideas I have about the fall of the Conservative Party in Scotland (and thus of the apparent fall in support for market freedom so long as there was no other credible free market party here).

   At the start of this Scotland gave the Tories just over 50% of the vote, more than Labour has ever achieved. By comparison Wales was always dodgy ground for them and in fact if you bear in nmind that neither main party hopes to get above 40% of the UK vote now a Tory drop of 4% from 30% to 26% there proportionately counts as a gain - certainly so compared to Labour.

    The first Tory drop here is from 50% to just under 40% over the 15 years between 1955 and 1970. That loss is serious. It covers the period of the Conservative councillors, who used to fight under the name Progressives (a title the left now claim so I assume they think it is attractive) largely dropped that name and became Conservative. This was the end of a particularly Scottish, anti-socialist, political institution which didn't suit the vision of Tory "modernisers" of the time and which incidentally suited the Unionist vote - basically the group of, mainly protestant Liberals who at the end of the 19thC or later, split from them over Irish home rule. They were willing to work with the Tories but were never really were comfortable being them. The protestant unionist vote was a group Tory "modernisers" were embarrassed to have supporting them. Even so, while losing 12% of the vote is a bad fall, remember that this was the period when the SNP first won Hamilton and became something more than a fringe and when the Liberals were rising from the edge of non-existence to 7.5% in 1970 so probably half of this drop can be put down to these factors.

     The 36 years from late 1974 to 2010 shows a drop from 24% to 17%. Again bad but not a disaster, at least as counts the amount of change. There was a UK wide drop up to 2005 of 4% (though they recovered elsewhere in 2010 - Gordon Brown was not as unpopular here  as elsewhere). There was a greater fall here during Thatcher's 2nd and 3rd elections but it was certainly not the "electoral poison" she is claimed to have been. I think some of that can be blamed on their opposition to devolution and some (though the better than UK recovery in 1992 suggests not much) to the coal industry being bigger here.

       The real disaster in Scottish Conservative voting was from 1970 to late 1974. A 4 year period that saw them fall from 38% to 24%. 37% of their voters gone. Now that is the definition of electoral disaster.

      So what was the cause of this. I am going to say it was Ted Heath's selling out of the fishing industry to join the EU. The EU's common fisheries policy, that the fish belonged to the whole EU not the countries in whose waters they were, was cynically cobbled together hours before negotiations with would be new members started. Heath and his supporters made it absolutely clear that they were willing to sell out our industry. It was, after all, an industry concentrated in far away Scotland, in small towns and villages where the metropolitan media never go. In his calculation of the political balance of power these people, their livelihoods and homes were expendable to achieve Heath's dream of membership of the EEC.

      Since fishing was a largely a small business, with captains owning their ships, it was not unionised. These towns and villages, didn't have the support of massive union power (much more massive then than now) and their PR and machines and flying picket thugs. Their fate has barely stirred the surface of the UK political and media class. While media pundits still lament how Thatcher destroyed mining communities (she didn't, economics did) they are simply ignorant of how Heath, quite deliberately and with no economic justification at all, murdered (murder being deliberate planned killing) Scottish fishing communities. But it stirred Scotland into considering that not only were we being ignored by London (we always knew that and being ignored by Westminster is not so bad) but that we were actively expendable and betrayable.

      It may be 40 years on and the party may, or may claim to be, offering us the chance to leave, but the Scottish Tories deserve every single lost vote.

      But the SNP don't deserve any better. The Tories may have murdered the industry but the self styled "Scottish National Party" have kept on mutilating the body. Nobody, not even the LibDems, are more enthusiastic for us staying in the EU. Nobody, certainly not the present Tories, are as keen to pay our membership of the EU in Scotland's fish. Though it is certain the terms of membership of a their "independent" Scotland would involve far more than what the EU already have from Britain. The SNP know the people of Scotland would never support another such sell out - that is why this most unpatriotic of parties has said it would not allow us a vote on rejoining the EU.

       Yet the fishing fields are still there. A fair proportion of the fish are too, despite EU overfishing and they should recover if there were a few years of only the current UK landings taking place. If there were the political will to do so.

       What the people of Scotland, and particularly the coastal fishing regions, need is a genuinely patriotic Scottish party (Scottish and British patriotism being entirely compatible) putting forward a Scottish programme which would include quitting the EU and allowing the British fishing industry to be as good as ever. Or better.

      

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Sunday, June 08, 2014

When Christopher Booker Takes You As A Source

   The above estimable Christopher Booker has a Telegraph blog discussing Anne Glover's criticism of the EU making scientific policy on political rather than scientific grounds.

   In it I am flattered to say he mentions this blog as his source. I assume he got it from his regular co-writer Dr Richard North of EU Referendum, where I mentioned it a few days ago:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/10882714/EU-science-is-twisted-says-its-top-expert.html

she launched into a trenchant attack on how the Commission routinely ignores scientific evidence when this contradicts some “political imperative” it has decided on for other reasons, such as pressure from lobby groups. On a whole range of issues, it has then hired reports from lavishly paid consultants to come up with the arguments it needs to support its political agenda.
There may be little new about this to hardened Brussels-watchers, but what was surprising was its source.
 
The only thing that rather weakened Prof Glover’s case was pointed out by her fellow-Scot, Neil Craig, who had reported on his blog (A Place To Stand) a speech he heard her make a while back on climate change. On this she had clearly bought the official groupthink line, lock, stock and barrel, explaining how rising CO₂ levels must inexorably lead to warming (even though world temperatures themselves have now managed to ignore this thesis for 17 years).
She even suggested that global warming might lengthen the hours of daylight in Scotland. When it comes to brushing aside evidence, it seems, this biologist can be just as wonky as those she criticises in Brussels.

   This is the 2nd time something I blogged has been taken up by the Telegraph blogsphere. A few years ago James Delingpole followed up my interpretation of Sir Paul Nurse's BBC lecture on "climate change" as showing him trying to redefine his position as the one the sceptics have always held - that something may be happening but it isn't remotely catastrophic.

Today (Sunday Telegraph) p26

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Tuesday, June 03, 2014

EU Chief Science Advisor - Bosses Say "Find me the evidence"

   Anne Glover, the EU's Chief Science Advisor has denounced the EU's rulers in a job destroying manner. Via Bishop Hill & EU Referendum.
“Let’s imagine a Commissioner over the weekend thinks, ‘Let’s ban the use of credit cards in the EU because credit cards lead to personal debt’. So that commissioner will come in on Monday morning and say to his or her Director General, ‘Find me the evidence that demonstrates that this is the case.’”


    Quite remarkable since she is not some sort of competent, dedicated scientist. quite the opposite as I have previously described:

    Here is a review of a lecture on CAGW she did some years ago when she was still Scotland's Chief Science Advisor. http://a-place-to-stand.blogspot.co.uk/2010/03/scottish-governments-chief-science.html  Her assertion that warming would increase day length seemed to show a remarkable ignorance of science but it was clear the lecture she was giving was one used for her main job - going round schools frightening children with the CAGW scare.

    That she is less able to thole the eurocrats than 10 year old schoolkids, and has presumably decided to get them to fire her, is interesting.
---------------------------------
      I did invite her to answer this depiction apparent ignorance of orbital mechanics but she decided not to.
   

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Monday, May 26, 2014

UKIP Victory Across Britain as well as Scotland

  "There is no substitute for victory" according to General Douglas MacArthur and UKIP don't need a substitute.

   We came a clear 1st in the UK election:

   "UKIP won 27.5% of the vote and had 24 MEPs elected. Labour, on 25.4%, has narrowly beat the Tories into third place while the Lib Dems lost all but one of their seats and came sixth behind the Greens."

    So we may expect to see the Tories cease demanding free marketeers support them for fear of "splitting" the vote, indeed in theory they should start telling their supporters to vote UKIP everywhere where they came 3rd and while I don't expect them too, the voters are smart enough to work that out for themselves.

     While it was not the 100% wipe out for the LibDems some had predicted it is close enough - they were beaten by the Greens.

     Eurosceptic parties also did well across the continent.

    The Scottish vote is also a victory:

"The SNP won 386,193 votes on the night - almost 29% - with Labour coming second, on 346,377 votes (25.9%).

In third place was the Conservatives, with 230,569 votes (17.2%), followed by UKIP on 139,687 (10.4%).....

The Scottish Greens hailed their "best ever result", after winning 107,805 votes (8%), while the Liberal Democrats got a total of 95,076 votes (7%)."

   That is very bad for the SNP, particularly with the referendum coming up. It looks like a lot of SNP who would be Tories elsewhere decided to vote unionist. It is good for the Tories who were well ahead of us, though UKIP thrashed them elsewhere - I suspect this is not so much an increase in approval for them as a decrease elsewhere.

    Though we got our seat and are now the 4th party in Scotland, it was by a very thin margin. I strongly suspect that the votes going to the Tories not us (& more) was entirely because of the disgusting, dishonest and wholly corrupt campaign run by the BBC to call us "racist".

     In theory, and law, now that we have just over 1/3rd of the vote of the SNP the BBC will be obliged to give 1/3rd as much airtime to UKIP members as to Salmond, Sturgeon and co. In practice you would have to believe we live in a free democracy to expect that law to be enforced. However we can expect an almost infinite amount more coverage (ie some) and even some making up for 2 decades of censorship.

    10.4% in an EU election suggests a somewhat lower Holyrood vote, though, since Holyrood is under a PR system, not the squeezing out that happens in Westminster elections. To be a major party at Holyrood we have to have positive Scottish policies to put forward. I am convinced that the Scottish people only need some serious policy alternatives to the present "left of the UK Labour party consensus" that all 5 Holyrood parties share. I hope to keep on suggesting some.

    The Greens beating the LDs is also a humiliation for them, though it was achieved more by the latter increasing their vote - another sign more of dissatisfaction with the main party alternatives, I think, than approval of the Green enthusiasm for recession, blackouts and pensioner freezing.

    Bishop Hill reports the victory and wonders how much being opposed to the catastrophic warmong fraud helped. The comments give a useful balance of answers to that question.

   My opinion is that the voters recognise the connection between warming, windmillery and rising electricity prices and are not fooled. However they do not yet recognise the close connection between rising energy prices and recession - and that it is our job to make that clear.

   They also do recognise the discrepancy between the catastrophic warming we were promised being an obvious lie and the consequent fact that the parties pushing it (& state media) are obviously corrupt liars. This tends to reduce confidence in them. It will be interesting to see how, with UKIP having an increased entitlement to coverage on state media, they continue to censor us from climate "debate" as demanded by their Head of the Censorship Department. 

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Monday, April 28, 2014

Lib Dems Refuse To Debate Their Claim The EU Is Beneficial - Lets See If They Believe In ANY Of Their Policies

  OK my apologies for being offline for the last few weeks.

  I can confirm that I have received no response, not only from Willie Rennie, the Scottish Lib Dem leader, but from ANY representative of the party to defend his claim, at the "Glasgow Skeptics" censored "debate" on separatism, that EU membership is economically beneficial.

  This empty chair seems appropriate.

 
   However, when an opponent runs from the field one may reasonably claim victory.
 
  I had originally planned to run this debate over a full week but because I was offline taking it up again seems inappropriate. I have sent this
 
Dear Mr Rennie and Lib Dem Party,
                                                           I note you & your party's refusal to debate, openly online or elsewhere, your claim that EU membership is beneficial to our economy.
 
     I trust you will not object to the obvious conclusion that you know this claim cannot successfully be sustained in open debate (as Mr Clegg has also shown).
 
     However I do not think it can either be disputed that open debate of issues is a necessary requirement of democracy or indeed liberalism and I put it to you that your refusal to debate is thus also proof that you and your party are neither liberal nor democratic. Let me know if you dispute either assumption or conclusion.
 
      In that light I would be willing to debate, in the same form, with you, or any approved "LD" spokesman on ANY subject where the UKIP position differs from yours.
 
      I assume that if you can find even 1 policy promoted by your party which is better than that of UKIP you will be more than happy to debate it.
 
     I look forward to finding if there is any such.
 
    Sincerely
    Neil Craig

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Sunday, March 30, 2014

Because UKIP Is Censored Some Of The Clearest Arguments Against Separation Are Also Being Censored

   Letter sent to all and sundry. When it isn't published I will cut it & send it out again, several times. That will mean something close to 200 submissions. Statistically that would guarantee publication if our media were interested in balanced letter pages.
---------------------------------------------
Sir,
     At his Scottish conference, LibDem leader Nick Clegg has said how important it is that the Unionist parties work together to defeat the separation referendum. Liberals, Labour and Conservative. There is obviously something missing from this spirit of togetherness – any willingness to work with the 3rd party in British politics UKIP (4th in Scotland, but still ahead of Clegg’s own & likely to take 1st place in the EU elections).
 
      I attended a debate hosted by a leftist charity where the 3 approved parties spoke but from which UKIP was censored. The audience vote showed the approved parties lost heavily. This failure was all the more unnecessary since all the “nationalist” speakers, even from the SNP, were antagonistic to nationalism. All based their pitches on the, in my view, unrealistic expectation that separation would make us independent of the laws of arithmetic and able to make enormous financial commitments without raising any money. One speaker even acknowledged, in response to my question, that he would be happy to see us in permanent recession as long as their shibboleths were satisfied. It should not have been difficult to win that debate.

      By comparison, last year UKIP’s leader Mike Scott-Hayward, candidate Stuart Maskell and I stood, without preparation, in debate against Yes campaigners (the traditional party representatives all pulled out at the last moment) and won convincingly.

      Part of it is that some of the most clear-cut arguments involve the EU. If Scotland were to join as a new nation we would, at best, get the basic new nation terms. This means we would lose our share of Britain’s rebate (£500 million); would have to sign the Shengen immigration terms, meaning border posts at Gretna; agree to eventually joining the Euro; and sign up to the working time agreements which, going by the far worse continental employment figures, would destroy 170,000 jobs. However, because the traditional parties are EU enthusiasts they are clearly reluctant to mention this, and do not appear to have their hearts in the fight at all.

     By excluding UKIP, for party political reasons, they (& the BBC whose censorship of UKIP in Scotland would have done the Soviets proud) are preventing Scots having a full and rounded debate. This is what happened in the AV referendum where the LibDems refused UKIP’s assistance, deciding to depend on the popularity of Clegg – and lost despite the polls starting in their favour. If Britain is destroyed and Scotland plunged into financial disaster under incompetent politicians who think wishing will make it so (& who have already threatened to repudiate the national debt, something no sensible chancellor ever merely threatens to do) it will not be because the extreme “socialists” and a declining covering of nationalists, have won the debate. It will be because the LabConDems & BBC have ensured  Scots have not had a real debate. From experience both Clegg and I can confirm that those presenting the UKIP view can win in debate whenever we are not censored out of it. We can win the debate on whether Britain should have a future if we are not censored and Scotland’s future is too important an issue for it to be settled by party interests.
 
Neil Craig    

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Thursday, March 27, 2014

Liberal Societies and Technocracies and Where We Stand

      I get a bit annoyed when people on the good guy's side sloppily adopt the EU's description of their own bureaucratic method of ruling us - "Technocracy"
 
    "The concept of a technocracy remains mostly hypothetical, though some nations have been considered as such in the sense of being governed primarily by technical experts in various fields of governmental decision making. A technocrat has come to mean either 'a member of a powerful technical elite', or 'someone who advocates the supremacy of technical experts'.[1][2][3] Scientists, engineers, and technologists examples include these technologists who have knowledge, expertise, or skills, would compose the governing body, instead of politicians, businesspeople, and economists.[4] In a technocracy, decision makers would be selected based upon how knowledgeable and skillful they are in their field."                            (definition from Wikipedia)

      Now to call either Kinnock, Baroso, Mandelson, or any of the rest of them a "technologist" with "knowledge, expertise or skill" beyond the skills required of windbags and fraudsters is clearly nonsense. I doubt if any of them can handle machinery much more complicated than a knife and fork.

     China and Singapore probably can be correctly classified as technocracies. China's leaders almost all have engineering &/or accountancy credentials. Singapore's ruling party goes to considerable lengths to ensure anybody carrying their rosette has technocratic ability & the results and people's votes suggest this works (China's is more debatable - the people are probably fairly happy with the government but we don't know because they aren't asked).

     There is a good case for genuine technocratic government. Democracy does have the problem that those elected are fairly representative of the electorate, almost 50% of whom are of below average intelligence. On the other hand rule by elites has the problem that they have their own interests and beliefs rather than all of societies as their prime interest. Also that after a generation or 2 they may be much less elite.

   But what we have running the EU (and to an ever increasing extent at home too) has none of the benefits of either democracy or technocracy while keeping the dis-benefits of both.

   People of no exceptional intelligence running things without considering us, just as if they were an elite.

   A few days ago I mentioned the SNP's childcare policy being an invented PR lie masquerading as a carefully costed policy. Well in a follow up to that the SNP have, typically, refused to answer an FoI on the matter for this amazing reason:


"Disclosing this advice and evidence while the childcare policy is still under discussion and development may undermine or constrain the Government's ability to develop that policy effectively."

    Which is simply a boast that the SNP think that, under no circumstances, should the mere public have any knowledge of the formation of new polices, and thus by definition no influence. It should, ideally, emerge like Aphrodite, from the furrowed brow of Sturgeon, Salmond or the rest of these intellectual pigmies. It doesn't really matter whether this reason is the genuine one or just something thought up as an excuse to hide the lack of anything behind the curtain to support the policy. If they believe it or if they believe it is a sensible excuse, they must believe it.


   It is not just the SNP, of course, who believe no idea should be considered ever, under any circumstances, be willing to look at any new ideas that don't come from party leaders, which obviously is a tight limit.

    So here is the alternative - Dan Hannan on why a free society with the rule of law applied equally and lightly, to all, which often but not automatically means a democracy & definitely something that EU "technocrats" don't even understand.

 "Most Brits do indeed believe in British exceptionalism. But here's the thing: They define it in almost exactly the same way that Americans do. British exceptionalism, like its American cousin, has traditionally been held to reside in a series of values and institutions: personal liberty, free contract, jury trials, uncensored newspapers, regular elections, habeas corpus, open competition, secure property, religious pluralism.

The conceit of our era is to assume that these ideals are somehow the natural condition of an advanced society—that all nations will get around to them once they become rich enough and educated enough. In fact, these ideals were developed overwhelmingly in the language in which you are reading these words. You don't have to go back very far to find a time when freedom under the law was more or less confined to the Anglosphere: the community of English-speaking democracies.                                        
                                                                                  
                    .... The spread of "Western" values was, in truth, a series of military victories by the Anglosphere.
 
I realize that all this might seem strange to American readers. Am I not diluting the uniqueness of the U.S., the world's only propositional state, by lumping it in with the rest of the Anglosphere? Wasn't the republic founded in a violent rejection of the British Empire? Didn't Paul Revere rouse a nation with his cry of "the British are coming"?
 
Actually, no. That would have been a remarkably odd thing to yell at a Massachusetts population that had never considered itself anything other than British (what the plucky Boston silversmith actually shouted was "The regulars are coming out!"). The American Founders were arguing not for the rejection but for the assertion of what they took to be their birthright as Englishmen.....
 
What made the Anglosphere different? Foreign visitors through the centuries remarked on a number of peculiar characteristics: the profusion of nonstate organizations, clubs, charities and foundations; the cheerful materialism of the population; the strong county institutions, including locally chosen law officers and judges; the easy coexistence of different denominations (religious toleration wasn't unique to the Anglosphere, but religious equality—that is, freedom for every sect to proselytize—was almost unknown in the rest of the world). They were struck by the weakness, in both law and custom, of the extended family, and by the converse emphasis on individualism. They wondered at the stubborn elevation of private property over raison d'état, of personal freedom over collective need.
Many of them, including Tocqueville and Montesquieu, connected the liberty that English-speakers took for granted to geography. Outside North America, most of the Anglosphere is an extended archipelago: Great Britain, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore, the more democratic Caribbean states. North America, although not literally isolated, was geopolitically more remote than any of them, "kindly separated by nature and a wide ocean," as Jefferson put it in his 1801 inaugural address, "from the exterminating havoc [of Europe]."
Isolation meant that there was no need for a standing army in peacetime, which in turn meant that the government had no mechanism for internal repression. When rulers wanted something, usually revenue, they had to ask nicely, by summoning people's representatives in an assembly. It is no coincidence that the world's oldest parliaments—England, Iceland, the Faroes, the Isle of Man—are on islands.
Above all, liberty was tied up with something that foreign observers could only marvel at: the miracle of the common law. Laws weren't written down in the abstract and then applied to particular disputes; they built up, like a coral reef, case by case. They came not from the state but from the people. The common law wasn't a tool of government but an ally of liberty: It placed itself across the path of the Stuarts and George III; it ruled that the bonds of slavery disappeared the moment a man set foot on English soil.
There was a fashion for florid prose in the 18th century, but the second American president, John Adams, wasn't exaggerating when he identified the Anglosphere's beautiful, anomalous legal system—which today covers most English-speaking countries plus Israel, almost an honorary member of the club, alongside the Netherlands and the Nordic countries—as the ultimate guarantor of freedom: "The liberty, the unalienable, indefeasible rights of men, the honor and dignity of human nature... and the universal happiness of individuals, were never so skillfully and successfully consulted as in that most excellent monument of human art, the common law of England."
Freedom under the law is a portable commodity, passed on through intellectual exchange rather than gene flow. Anyone can benefit from constitutional liberty simply by adopting the right institutions and the cultural assumptions that go with them. The Anglosphere is why Bermuda is not Haiti, why Singapore is not Indonesia, why Hong Kong is not China—and, for that matter, not Macau. As the distinguished Indian writer Madhav Das Nalapat, holder of the Unesco Peace Chair, puts it, the Anglosphere is defined not by racial affinity but "by the blood of the mind."
At a time when most countries defined citizenship by ancestry, Britain was unusual in developing a civil rather than an ethnic nationality. The U.S., as so often, distilled and intensified a tendency that had been present in Great Britain, explicitly defining itself as a creedal polity: Anyone can become American simply by signing up to the values inherent in the Constitution.
There is, of course, a flip-side. If the U.S. abandons its political structures, it will lose its identity more thoroughly than states that define nationality by blood or territory. Power is shifting from the 50 states to Washington, D.C., from elected representatives to federal bureaucrats, from citizens to the government. As the U.S. moves toward European-style health care, day care, college education, carbon taxes, foreign policy and spending levels, so it becomes less prosperous, less confident and less free.
We sometimes talk of the English-speaking nations as having a culture of independence. But culture does not exist, numinously, alongside institutions; it is a product of institutions. People respond to incentives. Make enough people dependent on the state, and it won't be long before Americans start behaving and voting like…well, like Greeks.
Which brings us back to Mr. Obama's curiously qualified defense of American exceptionalism. Outside the Anglosphere, people have traditionally expected—indeed, demanded—far more state intervention. They look to the government to solve their problems, and when the government fails, they become petulant.
That is the point that much of Europe has reached now. Greeks, like many Europeans, spent decades increasing their consumption without increasing their production. They voted for politicians who promised to keep the good times going and rejected those who argued for fiscal restraint. Even now, as the calamity overwhelms them, they refuse to take responsibility for their own affairs by leaving the euro and running their own economy. It's what happens when an electorate is systematically infantilized.
The owl of Minerva, wrote Hegel, spreads its wings only with the gathering of the dusk. Since the middle of the 18th century, the hegemony of the English-speaking peoples has drawn many other nations into a uniquely free, democratic and wealthy world order. The Anglo-American imperium is, by most measures, reaching its twilight. But the values of the Anglosphere, particularly the unique emphasis on individualism, ought to be perfectly suited to the Internet age. And such values can take root anywhere.
Perhaps the most important geopolitical question of the 21st century is this: Will India define itself primarily as a member of the Anglosphere or as an Asian power? In the decades after independence, India did what all former colonies do, adopting policies aimed at underlining its differences from the former occupier. Successive governments promoted autarky, the Hindi language and equidistance between the Western and Soviet blocs.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Winston Churchill on board the HMS Prince of Wales, August 1941 Hulton Archive/Getty Images
But India has long since passed its moment of maximum orbital distance from the other Anglophone democracies. The traits that continue to set it apart from most of its neighbors are, for want of a better shorthand, Anglosphere characteristics.
In India, governments come and go as the result of elections, without anyone being exiled or shot. The armed forces stay out of politics. English is the language of government and of most universities and businesses. Property rights and free contract are secured by a common-law system, which remains open to individuals seeking redress. Shared values lead to shared habits. When, in the aftermath of the tsunami 10 years ago, the U.S., Australian and Indian navies coordinated the relief effort, they found an interoperability that goes beyond even that found among NATO allies.
If India were to take its place at the heart of a loose Anglosphere network, based on free trade and military alliance, the future would suddenly look a great deal brighter. Of course, to join such a free trade area, the U.K. and Ireland would have to leave the EU. But that's another story"

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Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Public Online Debate, Starting Monday, With Scottish Lib Dem Leader On EU/Growth - If They Are Up To It

To the Scottish LibDem Leader who used the recent "debate without opposition" to attack UKIP's EU policy knowing UKIP was being censored.

Dear Mr Rennie,
             I believe that genuine free debate without anybody being censored is a necessary condition for a true democracy. If you agree and wish that I'm sure you will accept this offer.
    I was the gentleman from UKIP that, in Monday's debate, pointed out that none of you Holyrood MEPs actually wanted to get our economy out of the doldrums and into growth (& give Harvie some credit for having admitted it, though he personally immediately backtracked a little). You took the opportunity to attack me for wanting growth and at the same time being against EU membership.
    Obviously it is possible to hold both views if you think, as I  almost all economists and the EU do, that the EU is holding back growth. The sceptical might believe that the only reason you dared to attack my position was that you knew that you were benefiting from the “Skeptic’s” anti-sceptical  censorship of freedom of expression and that I would not be allowed to point out where you are wrong.
         However you can prove me wrong by accepting a challenge to publicly debate with a UKIP representative (perhaps our EU candidate, perhaps myself) on either whether the EU is adding to[NC1]  our growth or whether we could achieve serious growth rates with UKIP policies (or both if you chose). Accepting would suggest you either believe in your policies or accept free debate as preferable to totalitarian censorship (or possibly both). On the other hand Charles Kennedy, who did at conference, call on your party to debate against UKIP, has repeatedly declined to do so.
 
      If you do not feel up to this you or a representative are invited to engage in an online debate. Formal debate involves alternate speakers getting, usually, 3 alternate opportunities to put their case and rebut their opponents. I invite you to debate on my blog.
 
     On Monday 31st March I will put up, in no more than 250 words my position on why the EU is economically damaging; you or your representative are invited to reply by 6.00 on Tuesday 1st April in 250n words; I will reply on Weds 3rd; you on Thurs 4th; me on Fri 5th and finally you on Sat 6 th.
 
      Alternately, if you prefer, we can debate whether UKIP economic policies should be reasonably expected to get us out of the current economic doldrums and into several times higher growth. Your choice.
 
Looking forward to a true debate.
Neil Craig
UKIP Glasgow
 
      OK lets see if they are up to it. Possibly not Rennie himself (even if he signs it) but there must be somebody in the party (I also sent it to the party) who feels they can make a serious case for staying in the EU. I am entirely serious about the necessity of open debate on politics, without it no free choice is possible, and I am sure the "Liberal Democrats" will, at least officially agree [ even the "Glasgow Skeptics" who ran the show, claim to believe in "critical thinking" though not when it is critical of the state parasites they support.
 
      Since Rennie specifically challenged me at the "Skeptics" do over the EU, if there is anything at all the party feels able to defend in debate that would be it.
 
     However it goes I will put my side of the case on Monday, Wednesday and Friday & whatever they present Tuesday, Thursday & Saturday which gives them the advantage of the last word. Of they decide not I can doubtless find an appropriate image.

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Friday, February 07, 2014

Yet Another Academic Report Agrees How Expensive EU Membership Is

The average Dutch household could be better off by over £8,000 a year and national income will grow by over £1 trillion [by 2035] if the Netherlands leaves the euro and the EU, according to a new study.
 
The study by the respected British Capital Economics research consultancy into "Nexit" - as a potential exit by the Netherlands has been termed - finds significant benefits over the next two decades if the country swaps its EU membership for a status similar to Switzerland or Norway.
 
I commented:
 
The £8,000 per household fits fairly well with Tim Congdon's assessment that EU membership costs us £170 bn (about £6K per household) but I am pleased they also include the effect on long term growth which is the main effect. The EU is the only world zone in recession - the rest is growing at an average of 6% a year. This is not something that our media mention - they keep blaming our problems on what they know to be a non-existent "world recession".

The important thing is not whether this report is more or less authoritative than Professor Congdon's but that there are a whole series of such, virtually all of which come to broadly similar conclusions.

Also that our own beloved government have always refused to authorise their own investigation.

   The Netherland's population is 16.8 million - 3 1/3rd Scotland's so that would be £336 billion more in the Scottish economy or £3.7 trillion for the UK by 2035. Do not expect to hear this getting BBC coverage or indeed mentioned by any of the cartel of parties in Holyrood who, whether they want "independence" from the UK or not are agreed in opposing independence from Brussels.

      6% growth over 21 years would increase gdp 3.4 times. £1 trillion increase in gdp by 2035 looks like about twice current Dutch gdp so this is a reasonable, arguably cautious, assessment.

    Bear in mind that several polls have shown that most people would be persuadable on Salmond's pretend "independence" if it could be shown they would be either £500 a year better or worse off after separation. Yet we are being prevented, not least by the nominally independence supporting SNP, from having a referendum on the entity that creates 75% of our legislation.

     I have sent this as a letter to most of the Scottish press. We will, as normal, see if this is another of these things you may not say in Scottish politics.

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Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Quit the EU Recession Zone

    This is my entry for the Brexit Prize on how we should quit the EU. Since it didn't get in the top 20 shortlist it is free to be used and as it is fairly long today is an appropriate time since I will be off till the weekend.

Merry Christmas, Ghod bless us every one.

WHAT HAPPENS IF WE QUIT THE EU RECESSION ZONE AND JOIN THE REST OF THE WORLD AT 6% ANNUAL GROWTH

     If Britain votes to quit the EU it will very probably mean that there is a somewhat eurosceptic government in place. The BBC, state owned broadcaster,  fits the legal definition of a broadcast news monopoly (70% of the market or above). Despite a nominal legal requirement to balance it is clearly supportive of membership and though legally committed to "balance" does not regard that as requiring them to do so when they are not proportionately represented in Parliament.

    Thus to get the issue properly debated would require that UKIP, or a coalition including UKIP hold power. Though polls regularly show a majority for leaving the EU (recently as high as 71%), to translate that into a majority at the moment of polling would likely require that supporters of leaving not be excluded from the broadcast media. At least this is the experience shown in the 1974 referendum.

      Assuming UKIP in government we should expect the process of leaving to fit their policies.  Those tend towards a fast break followed by low regulation and free market policies, particularly in the energy field with a repudiation of the catastrophic global warming theory and its attendant massive costs.

Sovereignty Means

     If Britain considers itself sovereign all that is technically required is the repeal of the Accession Act. There are some who say that it would be better for us to negotiate an exit on the terms of  Brussels and at their pace. This is wrong in principle, since it starts by conceding that Britain is not, despite membership of the UN & a host of bodies open only to such, a sovereign power. It is also wrong tactically because once you accept in principle the bureaucracy's jurisdiction, for what looks like simplicity, they can delay you have accepted their right to delay. 

        Repealing our Act would immediately cancel a vast amount of regulation. Regulation which, according to EU Enterprise commissioner Gunter Verheuggen in 2006 then cost the community 5.5% of gdp. It would be possible for Westminster to simply legislate many of these regulations to continue, albeit settled by British courts without EU ones having the final say on interpretation. A  UKIP influenced government would, rightly, choose to err on the side of freedom in deciding what rules to retain. Almost all government regulation works as a restraint on the market - even in those cases where it can be justified as ameliorating the most "red in tooth and claw" aspects of free markets. The cure is often worse than the disease. This does not mean that British industry would be unrestrained as exporters have to ensure their products fit local rules (including EU rules when appropriate) as they do now.   

      The European Economic Area Treaty is independent of EU membership. Under it Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein have free trade with us in the EU and under its terms they and we cannot be expelled. Thus all claims that the EU would or even could cut off trade with us are false. Whether even the very limited power the EU has over Norway would be too much and we should choose to leave even the EEA is a matter for another time.

Leaving only 1 factor in growth
      As the paper Habits of Highly Effective Countries (1) proves, economic freedom is a "necessary and perhaps sufficient condition" for economic success so we can state, with as much certainty as is available in economics, that a Britain run by a UKIP influenced government would be more successful than the current incarnation.

   Professor Congdon's assessment of the cost of membership is £150 bn annually (2). In fact, if anything it underestimates - for example he assumes the regulatory costs reported by Verheugen was 5% whereas the Commissioner actually said 5.5% and he assumes £150 bn to be 10% of gdp whereas UK gdp is now around £1.7 trillion. Had Professor Congdon not been cautious, presumably to prevent any europhiles being able to dispute it, a £200 bn estimate would not have been unreasonable. This has not been seriously questioned, on a  factual basis, by EU supporters. £150 billion a year is obviously a strong argument for making leaving a swift process.

     Indeed there is another, earlier EU publication which puts regulatory costs at a fearsome 12% of gdp (3). In which case the annual combined cost to the EU would be as high as 19.5% of gdp or £339 billion. I have not used this in this paper - Professor Congdon's figure is more than adequate to show that the economically sensible choice is to leave and as quickly as possible. But this is as valid as Verheugen's.

    Probably even more important than the direct benefits of leaving would be the adoption of UKIP's economic policies. Statistics clearly show a virtually 1:1 correlation between growth in energy usage and in gdp almost everywhere. For example China's 10% annual growth rate his been paralleled over 30 years by virtually the same growth in energy use. For several decades growth in energy usage in Britain has been severely restrained by government policy culminating in recent years in an actual decline and a price rise far beyond inflation.
    
      It is likely, considering all the options, that at least 90% of electricity cost in Britain is currently mandated by government not engineering. Over 95% can be argued (4). Nuclear costs about 40% of the cost of the average our generating capacity (5). In the period from the early 1970s to 80s alone nuclear reactor prices went up by 4.5 times beyond inflation (6) but if mass production of reactors was politically feasible it is likely that costs would fall very substantially
   
     Ukip's policy of encouraging a free market in energy, removing unnecessary governmental barriers in the exploitation of shale gas as well as nuclear, would massively reduce costs. If electricity prices were to drop to 10% over time, which is perfectly feasible, we price elasticity suggests usage would go up at least 10 fold, with enormous effects on gdp. Unfortunately any attempt at reform now would be prevented by the EU commitment to the most expensive and unreliable power sources, renewables, but as soon as we quit that would be changed.

   Britain already has the 8th best market in the world for doing business (7) and per capita has the best ratio of scientific citations to population of any sizable country (only Switzerland is significantly superior) (8). Thus were it to be allowed freedom in energy policies as well as removing EU regulations and tariffs we should be expected to match not only the average growth rate of the non-EU countries (6% annually) but of the very best (Guandong province in China managed 18% annually for some years). This would be not only because of the new market conditions but also because of the pent up innovatory capacity over  decades. With growth of that order the deficit would be ended in under 2 years.

Effects of economic effectiveness for an independent UK

     That level of growth would increase British gdp by 2.28 times over 5 years (1 Parliament) which, assuming, perhaps optimistically in present circumstances, that the EU economy neither recedes nor grows, would bring Britain to almost half the gdp of the remaining EU total. Retroactively justifying the decision.

     Note that while this is an unprecedented growth rate for Britain it is not unprecedented elsewhere and, by definition, if something has been done it is possible to do it. With Moore's law growth in computer capacity now doubling every 18 months and improvement in basics like strength of materials, internet education, nanotechnology and GM improving at slower but still enormous rates it is obvious that growth rates everywhere could be literally unprecedented. The slowing of growth in the developed world since 1958 (9) has been caused not by technology but by the growth in government regulatory parasitism, something the EU has been leader in. Robert Solow said  "You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics" and while this is often described as a paradox, and there is a desperate search for the reason it is clear that the growth in state regulation and restriction of new technology parallels the growth in computers and must explain at least part of the "paradox". This in turn suggests that the potential for a developed country that reduces state regulatory restraints and embraces new technology will be remarkably good

 History also shows that it is easier for the most advanced countries to grow - explained by the fact that the most advanced industries like computers have far greater potential for fast growth than older ones like agriculture. This is also reflected in the Chinese experience where the fastest growing provinces were initially the richest, most economically free, with port facilities to the rest of the world. Which augurs well for an independent more market orientated Britain.        
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       For example if Britain were to cut electricity costs by 90% as explained and if that were, over time, to lead to usage growing 10 fold along with gdp, we could achieve 18% annual growth for 14 years from that cause alone. There would obviously be many other causes of growth available.
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     It has never been disputed that, particularly with Britain having the advantages of the world's highest ratio of scientific citations to population of any sizable country and the benefits of speaking English, the language of business and technology worldwide, a serious growth programme would get us a growth rate exceeding any other in the world (10).

     Many British politicians have excused our economic performance since the 1870s by saying that it was easier for less advanced countries to grow. This is not the historical experience. It is only recently, with the adoption of the Washington Consensus of free marketism, that the undeveloped parts of the world generally started faster growth. Rather than it being some reversal of the established principles of economics this is more likely to be an example of them being employed by the growing countries, and ignored by the stagnating ones.

The historic strength of Europe was disunity and the free competition this creates

      Unfortunately the EU has proven to be the economic "sick man" of the world - the only zone in recession as the world grows at an average rate exceeding that seen at any time in history.

     Theoreticians of history have long noted that eras of progress (Ancient Greece, Renaissance Italy, post-Westphalia Europe) tend to be periods when political units are smaller than the cultural unit. People can move and the competition exposes particularly incompetent governments. When Columbus got a refusal from the kings of Portugal, France and England he could approach the king of Spain. Whereas 60 years previously the voyages of Cheng Ho were stopped when the Chinese bureaucracy's line changed. In due course they criminalised even ownership of ocean going vessels by Chinese citizens. The comparison with EU regulations and the suppression of market growth in energy use through their commitment to the catastrophic warming scare is obvious. Britain leaving the EU and establishing an area where research & debate is not suppressed in the name of "scientific consensus" would be the best thing Britain could do for the entire continent. Britain, having saved herself by restoring independence, could go on to save Europe by her example.
EU supported precedent proves independence easy

      There has been considerable talk about our relationship to the EU being so complex that it would take many years to dissociate. While it is likely that, long after the legal dissociation had taken place there would be some tidying up to be done the basic disunion can be speedy. Such tidying up would be done better under the rules of international law which have centuries of legal precedents for sovereign states.

       After all our relationship with the EU is far less close than those within sovereign states which divided. Czechoslovakia & the USSR separated quickly. Croatia took 4 months while Bosnia became independent on 3rd March 1992, 2 days after it's referendum. In both cases the speedy separation was supported, indeed enthusiastically assisted, by the EU so there can be no disputing the relevance of the precedent. Yugoslavia was a sovereign state so exit from the EU can, if desired, be faster.
Long Term

   Britain's role afterwards as an increasingly wealthy nation would be increasingly influential.

    It could also be a magnet for immigration, but as a sovereign nation that is not an insoluble or even difficult problem. If Japan and South Korea can maintain net immigration rates of 0.00%, in a region where there is more incentive for economic migration than Europe, it is clearly possible to do so.

    The Commonwealth shares a common language and currency and being more economically diverse, is actually more suited to free trade agreements than the EU. By dropping EU food tariffs Britain would, as well as lowering our own food prices, do more to promote 3rd world development than its Aid programme currently does. If Singapore is big enough to negotiate free trade agreements with 50 of the world's major states, including NAFTA & the EU, so can we. Finally if UKIP maintains its desire to put the funds currently given to ESA, into a commercial X-Prize Foundation we will have a, possibly the, major role in space industrialisation, the fastest growing industry in the world, (or off it). While, on current trends, the entire EU is likely to end up with a smaller orbital footprint than Dubai.

     Thus, in conclusion, it should be clear that it is in the interests of humanity, the developing world, the other EU peoples and of course Britain that we repeal the European Accession Act and resume our position as a fully sovereign state. In that condition, we are best able to clear up any outstanding issues. We would leave the zone of relative fast decline and under a progressive (in the sense of supporting progress) government be able to achieve our potential with the other independent countries in the world committed to economic freedom.

References
1 - Habits of Highly Effective Countries  http://www.policynetwork.net/development/publication/habits-highly-effective-countries
2 - Congdon's assesment of the cost of EU membership www.timcongdon4ukip.com/docs/UKIP%20Cost%20of%20the%20EU.pdf
3 - EU says not having US more limited regulation costs 12% of gdp http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=80579
4 - What it could cost to build nuclear plant http://depletedcranium.com/hope-this-works/
5 - RAE electricity costs  www.raeng.org.uk/news/publications/list/reports/cost_of_generating_electricity.p.
6 - Professor Cohen, Chapter 9 costs of nuclear plants - what went wrong  http://www.phyast.pitt.edu/~blc/book/chapter9.html
7 - 8th best market for doing business  http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2201180/WEF-UK-8th-global-ranking-best-countries-business.html
8 - World scientific citations  http://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php
9 - Slowing of growth since 1958 - graph http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2011/07/the-great-divergence-the-other-way-around.html
10 - 24 point growth plan http://a-place-to-stand.blogspot.co.uk/2011/11/we-could-get-out-of-recession-in-days.html

Summary:
   With EU membership having a direct cost of at least £150 bn a year we should take the most immediate route to exit  and as a sovereign state the most immediate route is through Parliament.
  Great as the immediate savings in direct cost are the bigger gain from departure is that we leave the only zone of the world economy which is in recession, because of the regulatory morass of the EU mandarins, and get into the mainstream of humanity which is achieving 6% annual growth.
Neil Craig

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Friday, November 01, 2013

EU Debate - Smart things I should have said

      You know how your witty comeback always occurs next day after the discussion is over?

      Well here are a few from our EU debate:

  One of the 2 Johns, in reply to a statement that 75% of British laws now come from the EU said a House of commons one said it was 15%. Lord Monckton gave chapter and verse of why it was 75% or perhaps more. At the time I knew nothing of the 15% figure but here it is in a Channel 4 "factcheck" whose bias against UKIP is palpable:

"A much-misreported House of Commons library study into the amount of our legislation that comes from Europe said it was “possible to justify any measure between 15 per cent and 50 per cent or thereabouts” depending on how you looked at EU regulations”

    So not, as claimed an assertion of 15% but merely an assertion that this is the very lowest it is possible for even our pro-EU Parliament to claim possible.
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    One of the 2 Johns said that there are no EU tariffs on food. I was just too gobsmacked to say he was a total liar, which would probably have been unparliamentary anyway.


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   When 2 questions were raised the first was about whether democracy could survive with modern technology. I answered only the 2nd question. John P replied about the benefits of representative democracy over pure democracy, Athenian style, giving as an example the Athenian assembly voting to kill everybody in Syracuse and next day changing its mind and sending out another, faster, ship to carry the reprieve. It wasn't actually Syracuse.

   With hindsight I would say that modern technology makes pure democracy practical; that UKIP's commitment to referendums is a start in that direction; that the FPTP electoral system does not give us representative democracy since it is deliberately maintained to ensure Parliament is not representative but skewed towards the parties in power. I could also have quoted Churchill "democracy is the worst system of government, apart from all the others" and Machiavelli on how the people may sometimes be fickle and ungrateful but that a "a Prince" almost always is; and that in the case he gave the people showed mercy whereas Alexander had, in several cases, exterminated a city for resisting him.

    You don't get perfection entrusting yourself to a dictator, you may get grandeur instead. In the EU you don't get grandeur either you just get incompetent bureaucracy. Technology and the internet have given us ways to learn what government doesn't want us to know and to choose for ourselves things those in power would rather we obediently accepted.

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     The former Tory MEP answered a point I made about our immigration policy by launching a spiel about unlimited immigration being a good thing. At the time I let it stand because I thought he had made an ass of himself. Perhaps I should have responded that what he was saying, while he was perfectly entitled to believe it, was not his party's policy. UKIP's policy is a 50,000 a year limit. At the last election Mr Cameron made a specific promise to cut immigration to "10s not hundreds of thousands" by the end of this Parliament. Since 50k is midway between 10s and hundreds there is barely a cigarette paper between U&KIP and official Tory policy. The only real difference is that when Cameron made the promise he knew it could not be kept so long as, as EU members, we cannot stop EU immigration.

       It is not a policy difference it just that everybody knows the Tory policy promise is a lie whereas everybody, even our opponents, know UKIP believe in our policies.

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Friday, October 11, 2013

Why The EU Is An Hideous Aberation

   Pleased to say that my speech at the Glasgow University EU debate is now up at ThinkScotland. Read the whole thing and please put any comments there. This is a slightly edited version:


Professor Tim Congdon, one of Britain's leading economists and I acknowledge, a prominent member of UKIP, has calculated the EU costs as follows:

1% of GDP is what we actually pay over. Some of that is returned to spend in Britain but not spent in a way that significantly increases GDP;

3¼% to CAP and other EU protectionism

¼% lost because the open UK labour market allowed 700,000 Eastern Europeans into the UK, taking away jobs of over 100,000 UK-residents

¼% lost to waste - CFP and others, involves fish discard and effective ‘gift’ to other nations; etc

¼% to costs of ‘benefits tourism’ and such but, most importantly;

EU commissioner Gunter Verheugen in 2006 said in an interview that EU regulation costs 5.5% of GDP. That was then and regulation has considerably increased since, so 6% now.

Thus Professor Congdon concludes – 11% of our potential GDP is lost through EU membership – £170 billion.

The BBC, despite its legal charter commitment to impartiality has censored mention of Verheugen's vital admission or Congdon’s calculation ...... no significant europhile has ever even attempted an arithmetical criticism of this calculation......

But that isn't the end of it. Those in power regularly blame our recession on the "world recession" but there is no world recession. The EU is the only zone in recession   it is.... 6% for the non-EU world.
Indeed the Commonwealth is undergoing annual growth of a magnificent 7.3%. The Commonwealth precisely because it is a mixture of developed and undeveloped countries is an inherently better trading zone than the EU. When we abandoned it in 1974, it made it up 10% of world GDP, barely a third of the current EU countries but this year its total GDP is moving upwards, is passing the EU's going in the opposite direction. Far from gaining benefits we have chained ourselves to a sinking ship.
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But that isn't the end of it. The growth disparity is increasing fast because the regulatory burden ratchets only one way. Nobody expects the EU to achieve serious growth in the near future or perhaps at all. If that 6% annual growth continues for 12 years the rest of the world economy will double. If it continues for 36 years (when students at the university I spoke at would be at their career peaks) the world economy will be 8 times what it is now and we will be part of the underdeveloped bit.

There are a couple of reasons why the EU doesn't and cannot ever work.

Firstly we have no demos – no common primary loyalty of the people to the EU rather than the separate nationalities. That means that the only thing that does, or can, hold us together is the bureaucracy. Which is why we end up with such expensive and destructive bureaucracy.
It may also explain why Eurocrats feel it useful to scare us and have eagerly endorsed scare stories – from the 1970s Club of Rome, who promised we would run out of resources in the 1990s, through acid rain (which is now quietly accepted as transmuting into ammonia fertiliser), to the present scare about CO2 which increases crop growth by 20%.

Secondly the EU runs contrary to our history. Europe led the world because Europe consisted of small states in competition so ideas and innovation could not be stifled by any one ruler. In 1433, Cheng Ho returned to China, his fleet having explored the entire Indian ocean but an anti-technology party had the emperor's ear and he stopped exploration dead. China withdrew on itself. Half a century later, when Columbus got a knock back from the king of Portugal he could go to the kings of France, England and finally Spain – and for 500 years Europe led the world.....

Ancient Greece, Renaissance Italy and Europe in the age of exploration. Again and again progress, often magnificent progress is made; freedom maintained where there are separate, law respecting, trading states; where common culture extends beyond the state; where dissidents like Descartes could move from France to Sweden rather than be silenced. This has been the glory of Europe. Now we see China, ponderously, moving towards freedom while we are ruled by progressively stifling mandarins.

Which brings me to the one allegedly "beneficial" effect of the EU I want to end with.
In December 2007 there was an EU debate in Glasgow University Union. Robin Harper, then Green leader carefully explained to us why the "Green" movement had gone 180 degrees from "small is beautiful" to enthusiastic support of the EU superstate. It was, he explained, because they had come to realise that only the massive bureaucratic regulatory system of the EU could stop the "continuous economic expansion" we were, back then, suffering from.

It worked. It surely did.

If you believe that the prime duty of government is to enforce recession; to ensure that the future is poorer than the past; to rob future generations of their birthright; then you should recognise and endorse the idea that the EU has had that "beneficial" effect.

If like UKIP & I, you believe in human progress; that the potential for progress of free human beings has barely been scratched and that it is not merely wrong but evil of the state to try and stifle human progress then you can only conclude that the EU's impoverishment of us all has been a hideous aberration and we should rejoin the march of progress.


    

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Wednesday, October 02, 2013

Glasgow University European Society Debate

    Last night Lord Monckton and I were speakers at Glasgow University Union in debate on whether the EU had been beneficial to Britain. There was no final vote and I think the audience were initially europhile but we did pretty well.

    I am certainly convinced we won the intellectually. I intend to post my speech tomorrow.

    It was divided into 3 sections - 40 minutes for 4 speeches, the same for debate on the platform and a bit longer for questions/points from the floor.

     It was also done with good manners on both sides though at one point I was forced to object to a claim by John Purves, former Tory MEP, that if UKIP took power we would be attacking Syracuse (Sicily) pointing out that his party supported wars against Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya and (at least the party leader) Syria whereas UKIP had opposed them all. He was perfectly entitled to approve of those wars but he was not entitled to say that UKIP were the warmongerings.

     The other 'phile speaker was John Brand, a former British diplomat and now leader of the (partly EU funded) European Movement in Scotland, which arguably says something about the impartiality of our foreign office.

      Their arguments were largely about the benefits of a free trading zone and how much good it had done us. I believe this was negated by my speech and indeed during the 2nd section I asked if they disputed my figures of the EU zone massively economically underperforming the rest of the world and likely to do worse in future. John Brand said this was because it is easier for poor countries to grow and I replied that this is an excuse popular with politicians in wealthy but failing countries and very popular in Britain but is not true. History shows that it is actually easier for already rich countries to grow than poor ones because they have the education, spare capital and infrastructure thus the industrial revolution happened in Britain not one of the poorer nations of the time. That it is confirmed by the fact that back then the disparity in income between Britain and Senegal was only about 3 times but is now 200 times. I said that the reason for the current faster 3rd world growth is that they have adopted the Washington Consensus, which is basically what Adam Smith taught 200 years ago, while we have adopted Luddism instead but that we could achieve world average growth any time our political class allow it. As confirmation I pointed out that Singapore, Hong Kong, the US, Canada, Australia and now Taiwan are richer per capita than us and still growing faster, indeed that Singapore recently achieved 14% growth in 1 year.

        That later brought a question from the floor by somebody who said Singapore allows unlimited immigration, unlike UKIP's policy. I'm afraid that I got a bit shirty about that when, after I said it is very careful about limiting immigration to skilled workers and that it is quite obvious, since they are surrounded by poor countries, that if they allowed unlimited immigration they would quickly be swamped by millions of immigrants. He again insisted they did and I simply said that was a silly assertion, which was not courteous but is true.

         Mr Brand also complained about how the media is biased against the EU - ie the Mail and Mirror and I said that the BBC, which is far more important is overwhelmingly biased in favour of the EU.

         Professor Curtis, who regularly, on election night, explains the trends on the BBC, moderated with patience and courtesy keeping even Christopher Monckton to time (and firmly asking a questioner making what appeared to be a personal attack on Monckton whether this was about the EU and excluding it when, despite the questioner's assertion, it turned out not to be).

         Lord Monckton was far and away the best speaker, eschewing mere microphones to march to the front of the stage and speak from there. I won't even attempt to repeat his definition of  what the EU call a spade since it must have run to 100 words. He knows his facts and he knows his anecdotes and he knows a dozen languages. He dominated the debate and clearly knew it (but this is my blog so I get to big up me ;-) ).

      I took half a minute from Chris's summing up (he is a gentleman and agreed though he was clearly the right person to do it) to say that, since it was agreed by all, that this debate had been informative as well as entertaining, and since free debate is a necessary condition of a real democracy, that I hoped everybody would agree that it would be a good thing if the BBC were to follow the example and actually broadcast some formal debates where both sides were present.

    And so to the beer bar. 

         According to this the audience was 269 which feels about right.

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Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Three E's - Energy, Ecofascism & the EU - Links in Our Failure

 
     2 of 4 graphs produced by Dan Hannan that show the failure of the EU.
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   Energy poverty hits Germany too.
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 Estonia, Europe's libertarian example, can supply all its power from shale.

“Even if we had to invest in new power plants today, shale would still be cheapest. Russian gas costs 1.8 times as much; onshore wind 2 times as much; and offshore wind 2.5 times as much.”

“I am a right-wing person and I am not a supporter of the war on fossils. We must look after the competitiveness of our industries. We must respect European environmental regulations of course but I am sceptical about these climate issues.”
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Big Business supporting ecofascism for short terms gains plans to close down Grangemouth and move abroad to escape the ecofascist parasites.
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HARD-UP families could see energy bills double to a ­whopping £3,000 a year, experts warned last night.

The forecast came as millions of households face rises of up to £140 in electricity and gas bills within weeks.The current average dual fuel bill stands at £1,420. But, with the way prices are continuing to soar, this figure is set to double by 2020.
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The Commonwealth is set to overtake the Eurozone to become the largest GDP area in the world. Furthermore, the Commonwealth is predicted to have a growth rate of 7.3% between 2013 and 2017, three times faster than the Eurozone. The Commonwealth has 20% of global trade and just over 30% of the world’s population.

Five of the Commonwealth nations – Singapore, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia, are ranked in the top ten countries worldwide for doing business (2010) and are classified in the Very High Human Development Group.
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Scared to Death: From BSE to Global Warming: Why Scares are Costing Us the Earth by Christopher Booker and Richard North

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Sun fracking poll rersults  http://www.thegwpf.org/sun-poll-britains-backing-fracking/

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The crucial role of energy in growth: On a global scale, economic growth has always been highly correlated with higher energy consumption. Between 1980 and 2008, to produce one additional unit of GDP, 0.55 additional units of primary (raw) energy inputs were required[i]. When looking at energy that can be directly applied to societies, correlations are even stronger: during the same period, for one unit of GDP, electricity use grew by 0.95 units globally.[ii]

 

GDP and primary energy use (1980=100)

This strong connection between economic growth and energy consumption is often overlooked. It is based on the key paradigm of the industrial age: a significant portion of the productivity gains of the 19th and 20th century were achieved as greater mechanical energy use released human labour capacity. In industrial societies, one unit of human labour, measured in food intake, was often replaced by 100-1000 units of mechanical energy, mostly delivered from fossil fuels

(I assume the difference between primary consumption and electricity is because of improvements in efficiency of electricity generation. In any case the correlation between electricity and GDP is clearly as close to perfect as you get)

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Green Investors Face Bankruptcy As Spain Cuts Subsidies Again And Again

Oh dear, to bad, what as shame, never mind.

 

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